火灾发生起数的区间估计和假设检验

在分析火灾发生概率规律性的基础上,可在一定的置信水平上,对火灾发生的起数进行区间估计和假设检验。通过区间估计将未来的火灾形势预测为一个置信区间,通过假设检验可排除随机干扰,确定火灾发生起数的变化规律,这些信息都能为消防规划的制定提供科学的数量依据。     

Student mentoring to enhance graduates’ employability potential

This paper considers whether the adoption of a subject-specific, classroom-based, voluntary extra-curricular student mentoring scheme could provide an effective mechanism and andragogic approach to enhance higher education students’ employability potential pre-graduation.Over the three-year pilot, 26 more advanced (second to fourth year) undergraduate students actively mentored nearly 400 first year undergraduate students during workshops delivered annually within forensic and policing focused courses. In total, 17 mentors anonymously completed online, post-scheme surveys. Survey data was quantitatively analysed to evaluate the scheme, establish which skills and attributes mentors had developed and investigate whether mentors could appropriately identify example skills within professional terminology used during employer recruitment. In addition, this paper reflects on the implementation of remote student mentoring during the COVID-19 pandemic and its adoption within a blended learning framework.The results from this research strongly support mentoring as an effective mechanism to develop undergraduate employability skills, significantly developing mentors’ self-confidence and self-efficacy in their interpersonal and communication skills. Although mentors were aware of university graduate attributes and thought they could evidence these with appropriate examples, in practice this was not necessarily the case. As a result, a framework is proposed to enable mentors to identify their skills and how they may align with competencies sought by relevant forensic and policing employers. However, other andragogic practices may need to be implemented to maximise the potential for successful graduate employment.     

The political effects of referendums: An analysis of institutional innovations in Eastern and Central Europe

Theory suggests that the political effects of referendums should vary according to the institutional provisions that allow for direct involvement of citizens in decision-making. Relying on extant theoretical models the paper proposes initial tests of some implications for the newly democratized countries in Eastern and Central Europe. The constitutions of these countries distinguish themselves by a wide variety of institutional provisions for referendums. Taking advantage of this increased variance, the paper demonstrates effects of different institutional provisions on policy outcomes, which, so far, have only been demonstrated at the sub-national level, for example, in the United States and Switzerland.     

美国宪法性刑事诉讼法：意旨、构造与启示

美国宪法性刑事诉讼法是美国联邦最高法院以宪法文本及宪政精神为理据,在特定的刑事诉讼案件的裁判过程中,经由司法判决而延伸出来的一套基本权保障与救济机制。它与宪法存在紧密关系,但又与宪法不同构,有着自身的意旨与构造。西法可鉴,研究美国宪法性刑事诉讼法对当前我国刑诉法研究的纵深发展有很大的启示。     

The suitability of visual taphonomic methods for digital photographs: An experimental approach with pig carcasses in a tropical climate

In the context of increased scrutiny of the methods in forensic sciences, it is essential to ensure that the approaches used in forensic taphonomy to measure decomposition and estimate the postmortem interval are underpinned by robust evidence-based data. Digital photographs are an important source of documentation in forensic taphonomic investigations but the suitability of the current approaches for photographs, rather than real-time remains, is poorly studied which can undermine accurate forensic conclusions. The present study aimed to investigate the suitability of 2D colour digital photographs for evaluating decomposition of exposed human analogues (Sus scrofa domesticus) in a tropical savanna environment (Hawaii), using two published scoring methods; Megyesi et al., 2005 and Keough et al., 2017. It was found that there were significant differences between the real-time and photograph decomposition scores when the Megyesi et al. method was used. However, the Keough et al. method applied to photographs reflected real-time decomposition more closely and thus appears more suitable to evaluate pig decomposition from 2D photographs. The findings indicate that the type of scoring method used has a significant impact on the ability to accurately evaluate the decomposition of exposed pig carcasses from photographs. It was further identified that photographic taphonomic analysis can reach high inter-observer reproducibility. These novel findings are of significant importance for the forensic sciences as they highlight the potential for high quality photograph coverage to provide useful complementary information for the forensic taphonomic investigation. New recommendations to develop robust transparent approaches adapted to photographs in forensic taphonomy are suggested based on these findings.     

党领导人民改善民生是道路自信的实质内容和价值追求

中国特色社会主义道路自信的内涵主要包括对发展道路已有成果的充分肯定,对目前发展道路延续性的清晰认知,对未来发展道路的充分信心。道路自信是不断推进民生建设的现实需要和思想保障,给民生建设提供和平的发展环境、不断补齐民生发展短板的艰巨任务,都需要坚定道路自信。从中国道路已有发展成果看,道路自信的根本依据是广大人民群众的支持和拥护,道路自信来源于对我国民生问题的科学把握,来源于深厚的群众基础,来源于给中国人民带来的巨大发展成就。从中国道路发展延续性看,道路自信的实质内容是不断满足人民群众的美好生活需要,为此,要坚持新发展理念,用发展的办法解决发展中的问题;要解决好发展不平衡不充分的问题,不断满足不同阶层的多层次的民生需求。从中国道路未来发展看,道路自信的价值追求是不断增强人民群众的获得感幸福感安全感。要实现好维护好发展好最广大人民的根本利益,把实现全体人民共同富裕作为基本着眼点,把实现人民幸福安康作为根本目的和归宿。     

论行政主体的缔约责任——民法缔约过失理论在行政合同制度中的引入与适用

借鉴民法上的缔约责任 ,行政主体的缔约责任是行政主体在缔结行政合同过程中超越缔约规则 ,违反缔约义务 ,给另一方相对人或第三人的利益造成损害所应承担的法律责任。行政主体缔约责任的理论基础是诚信原则和信赖保护原则 ,其中信赖保护的范围更广。行政主体承担缔约责任的前提是违反了缔约义务 ,包括确保缔约程序公正的义务和确保合同合法有效的义务。损害赔偿是行政主体承担缔约责任的方式。     

新时代建构文化自信的三重维度

建构文化自信是文化属性的逻辑使然,也是国家发展要求的现实必然,其践行需要公共文化治理。在此中,文化制度建设是建构文化自信的顶层设计,它以发挥制度优势为重点、以政府为主导者,以“科学性-人民性-系统性”为基本遵循存续文化制度自信;文化生产建设是建构文化自信的现实保障,它以高质量发展为重点、以文化供给组织为中坚力量,以“价值嵌入→内部优化→高质量文化供给”为运行逻辑深化文化生产自信;文化生活建设是建构文化自信的落脚环节,它以提升文化生活质量和提增民众人生意义为重点、将居民放在主位,以居民“获得→认同→内化”为路向推动文化生活自信。文化建设多维途径搭建共治之网,共筑文化自信。     

核武器对同盟的影响——以朝核问题与日美同盟的互动为例

核武器通过对威胁能力与威胁认知的修正对同盟建立产生影响。核武器及其拥有国的数量影响同盟的结构样式和结构变动。核武器拥有、部署及威慑功能的变动持续塑造同盟参与国对威胁的认知,从而影响同盟参与国的对外政策。同盟内核保护的明确性与可信性、核武器功能及部署的分享与分工、国际核安全机制的构建,都将影响同盟的内部互信。综观朝核问题对日美同盟的影响:日美同盟参与国对外政策的不协调为其表,日美同盟内互信的动摇为其中,日美同盟结构的进一步"平等化"为其里。     

Prime ministers and the electoral cost of using the confidence vote in legislative bargaining: evidence from France

Do prime ministers pay an electoral penalty for using procedural force to pass laws? Influential theories of parliamentary governance and legislative bargaining assume that the use of the confidence vote procedure – parliamentary governments’ most powerful legislative weapon – entails an electoral cost, but evidence on this important claim has been scarce. This article provides the first estimates of how prime ministers’ public approval responds to their use of the confidence vote. Analysing time series data from France 1979–2008, it is found that prime ministers experience a considerable drop in approval after their use of the confidence vote that is not accounted for by standard economic and political covariates. The effect size is similar to a 1 per cent decline in economic growth. The findings help explain French prime ministers’ selective use of the confidence vote procedure. They also suggest that political costs constrain the bargaining power conferred by the confidence vote.