The Error in “Error Rate”: Why Error Rates Are So Needed,Yet So Elusive

Establishing error rates is crucial for knowing how well one is performing, determining whether improvement is needed, measuring whether interventions are effective, as well as for providing transparency. However, the flurry of activities in establishing error rates for the forensic sciences has largely overlooked some fundamental issues that make error rates a problematic construct and limit the ability to obtain a meaningful error rate. These include knowing the ground truth, establishing appropriate databases, determining what counts as an error, characterizing what is an acceptable error rate, ecological validity, and transparency within the adversarial legal system. Without addressing these practical and theoretical challenges, the very notion of a meaningful error rate is limited.     

欧洲法院预审裁决制度初探

预审裁决制度是<欧洲共同体条约>当中最引人注目,最重要的规定之一.在特定的案件中,成员国法院在作出判决之前,必须将某些欧共体法律问题交给欧洲法院作出预审裁决.它的最主要的目的是保证欧洲法院对欧共体法律拥有做出最明确解释的司法权,以保证欧共体法律解释的统一,同时消除成员国法院之间对欧共体法律在理解上的分歧.     

Assessment of intra- and intercostal variation in rib histomorphometry: its impact on evidentiary examination

Rib histological age estimation requires the evaluation of the middle third of the sixth rib. Human ribs have thin cortices and, when recovered, are often fragmented or absent, making it difficult to identify a specific midthoracic rib. This research explores the amount of microstructure variation in the middle third of the midthoracic ribs and determines whether the sixth rib age prediction equation can be applied to non-sixth ribs with similar accuracy. The amount of variability must be evaluated in order to meet the criterion for evidentiary examination. The sample consists of 120 cortical bone cross-sections from the middle third of ribs 3-8 removed from 20 cadavers. For each rib, osteon population densities (OPDs) and associated age estimates were calculated. The results demonstrate that non-sixth ribs can provide similar OPD values compared with those of the sixth ribs; however, individual variation proved to be significantly associated with bias, suggesting that individual factors influence the magnitude and direction of bias in non-sixth rib OPD values. This demonstrates the importance of evaluating multiple cross-sections (both intra- and inter-rib) to estimate age due to the normal remodeling variation within individuals.     

A review of experimental design in forensic taphonomy: moving towards forensic realism

Forensic taphonomy as a discipline requires standardization to satisfy Daubert criteria for scientific data to be admissible in court. In response, there has been a shift towards quantification of methodology and estimating the postmortem interval. Despite these advances, there are still biases and limitations within the discipline not explicitly addressed in the early stages of experimental design nor in final published works. In this article, unresolved debates with respect to the conductance and reporting of forensic taphonomic research are reviewed, beginning with the nature of experimental cadavers, human or animal analogues and their body size, and second, the forensic realism of experimental setups, specifically with respect to caging, clothing and number of carcases. Pigs, albeit imperfect, are a good model to gain a general idea of the trends that may be seen in humans in subsequent validation studies in facilities where human donors are available. To date, there is no consensus among taphonomists on the extent of the effect that body mass has on decomposition progression. More research is required with both human cadavers and non-human analogues that builds on our current knowledge of forensic taphonomy to answer these nagging questions. This will enable the discipline to make the reliable assumption that pigs and donor decomposition data can be applied to homicide cases. A suite of experimental design aspects is suggested to ensure systematic and standardized data collection across different biogeoclimatic circumstances to identify and quantify the effects of potential confounding variables. Such studies in multiple, varied biogeographic circumstances with standardized protocols, equipment and carrion will facilitate independent global validation of patterns. These factors are reviewed to show the need for adjustments in experimental design to ensure relevance and applicability of data within locally realistic forensic situations. The initiation of a global decomposition data network for forensic taphonomists is recommended.

Key points

• Pigs are a valuable, albeit imperfect, proxy for human decomposition studies.
• There are few or conflicting data on effects of carcase size, carrion ecology, exclusion cages and scavengers.
• We recommend single, clothed, uncaged carcases for baseline research to reflect regionally specific forensic casework.

     

Forensic identification science evidence since Daubert: Part I--A quantitative analysis of the exclusion of forensic identification science evidence

The U.S. Supreme Court decisions in Daubert v. Merrell Dow Pharmaceuticals Inc. and Kumho Tire Co. Ltd. v. Carmichael transformed the way scientific expert evidence was reviewed in courts across the United States. To gauge the impact of these rulings on the admission of forensic identification evidence, the authors analyzed 548 judicial opinions from cases where admission of such evidence was challenged. Eighty-one cases (15%) involved exclusion or limitation of identification evidence, with 50 (65.7%) of these failing to meet the "reliability" threshold. This was largely because of a failure to demonstrate a sufficient scientific foundation for either the technique (27 cases) or the expert's conclusions (17 cases). The incidence of exclusion/limitation because of a lack of demonstrable reliability suggests that there is a continuing need for the forensic sciences to pursue research validating their underlying theories and techniques of identification to ensure their continued acceptance by the courts.     

台湾地区羁押程序之镜鉴——以陈水扁被羁押案件为背景

陈水扁被羁押案件充分反映了台湾地区羁押的法院审查程序。一般包括检察官声请羁押、法官讯问审查、羁押裁定与羁押理由开示等环节。结合大陆羁押审查程序的现状与问题，借鉴台湾地区的做法，应当改善刑事羁押审查救济程序，转变刑事羁押的观念，构建羁押场所独立巡视制度，从而使羁押程序的正当性得以体现，使打击犯罪与保障人权的关系得到平衡。     

Trial by Polygraph: Reconsidering the Use of the Guilty Knowledge Technique in Court

Polygraph test results are by and large ruled inadmissible evidence in criminal courts in the US, Canada, and Israel. This is well-conceived with regard to the dominant technique of polygraph interrogation, known as the Control Question Technique (CQT), because it indeed does not meet the required standards for admissible scientific evidence. However, a lesser known and rarely practiced technique, known as the Guilty Knowledge Test (GKT), is capable, if carefully administered, of meeting the recently set Daubert criteria. This paper describes the technique, and argues for considering its admissibility as evidence in criminal courts.