Economic shifts and the changing homeownership trajectory

Abstract

From 1980 to 1988, homeownership rates declined substantially for the first time in the postwar era. They stabilized and began to creep upward during the 1988–94 period. After presenting a long‐term perspective, this article describes and examines two of the underlying forces of this upswing—demographic aging and improved levels of affordability—as well as the impact of immigration and minority lags. Fundamental economic factors are then surveyed: national and regional housing price shifts, housing production cycles, measures of housing affordability, and employment. Several key economic parameters of the post‐recession housing market are presented as a guide to the short‐term future.

Post‐1988 homeownership rates initially rose because of an aging demography. But gradually, the new affordability became part of the dynamic. The new affordability was driven by the decade‐long slowdown and weakening of housing prices, lower post‐recession interest rates, and accelerated job creation following the period of “jobless” economic growth.     

Homeless families,singles, and others: Findings from the 1996 national survey of homeless assistance providers and clients

Abstract

The first question people typically ask about homelessness is, “How many people are homeless?” After that, questions usually turn to characteristics: “What are they like?” Basic demographic characteristics such as sex, age, family status, and race have always been of interest, in part because the homeless population appears to be very different from the general public and even from most poor people who are housed with respect to these characteristics. Often, because these differences are so dramatic, demographic characteristics are overinterpreted as representing the reasons for homelessness.

But as various studies have documented, most demographic factors quickly disappear as proximate causes when other factors representing personal vulnerabilities are available for examination. The underlying causes of homelessness, the structural conditions of housing and labor markets that turn vulnerabilities into loss of housing, do not lie within individuals at all and are thus difficult to include in analyses based on individual data.     

The decline of older,inner suburbs in metropolitan America

Abstract

This article develops an index of suburban decline for 3,428 U.S. suburbs. The results of this index were used to measure the prevalence and extent of decline for older, inner suburbs and newer suburbs across the nation and in different regions from 1980 to 2000. The general pattern is one of decline in selected older, inner suburbs, especially those with housing built between 1950 and 1969 and those with increasing minority populations.

Regional analysis reveals that the South and the Midwest had the highest proportion of older, inner suburbs in crisis. Suburbs with housing built before 1939 emerged as areas of continuing affluence.     

A new measure of housing affordability: Estimates and analytical results

Abstract

Affordable housing has often been described in terms of rent burden or owner cost burden. This article introduces the concept of housing‐induced poverty to describe the situation that arises when a household, after paying for housing, cannot afford the poverty basket of nonhousing goods. This is similar to Stone's shelter poverty concept, except that it is linked to a better‐known measure—the official poverty thresholds.

On the basis of the 1999 American Housing Survey, it is estimated that 3.8 million households that were above the official thresholds could not afford the poverty basket of nonhousing goods. In 1999, the housing‐induced poverty rate in the United States was 2.7 percentage points higher than the official rate. Results from an analytical model reveal that regional and locational variables are significant determinants of the probability of housing‐induced poverty. Housing assistance significantly decreases the probability that near‐poor renters will fall into housing‐induced poverty.     

Book Review: Divorced From Reality: Rethinking Family Dispute Resolution by Jane C. Murphy and Jana B. Singer

This essay summarizes key points from the book and observes the very different players and processes involved when families in poverty enter the family court system.     

Antoine Deparcieux (1703–1768) and demographic data collection

In 1746, Antoine Deparcieux (1703–1768) published Essai sur les probabilités de la durée de la vie humaine [An Essay on the Probabilities of the Duration of Human Life]. Deparcieux analyzed in detail empirical observations. As a mathematician and physicist, he can be considered, after Halley and Struyck, one of the founders of the estimation of longevity and all the issues surrounding that concept. The article analyzes the statistical data Deparcieux presented in his book and examines the way he dealt with them. He criticized the methods of his predecessors and showed what, according to him, were “good” data. Although he only had lists of annuitants or ecclesiastical registers at his disposal and no data from the government or state, Deparcieux constructed his calculations with careful regard to the value and quality of the figures used. He also envisaged a specific project to collect data about infant mortality. His work holds an important place in the history of French demographic statistics.     

Current preferences and future demand for denser residential environments

Abstract

This article assesses the future demand for denser, more walkable residential environments in the United States as a whole. A review of survey evidence on preferences is coupled with demographic projections and other trends to construct a demand projection for the period 2000 to 2010 and compare it with 1990 to 2000.

It is possible to foresee a turnabout already under way. Households older than 45 show particular interest in more densely configured homes in more central locations. Passage of the massive baby boom generation into this age range focuses the growth of housing demand in sharp contrast to stagnant numbers at younger ages. Home buyers aged 45 and older who prefer denser, more compact housing alternatives will account for 31 percent of total homeowner growth during the 2000—10 period, double the same segment's market share in the 1990s.     

Emerging cohort trends in housing debt and home equity

Abstract

Financial and market conditions in the 1990s caused a sharp increase in the housing debt (in constant dollars) of households now approaching or just past normal retirement age. Households now in middle age have also set new records for housing debt and will likely continue to carry high housing debt when they reach old age in 10 or 20 years.

In the future, this housing debt burden is likely to lead to financial and housing adjustments that suggest a qualitative change in behavior when these households reach the later stages of their working life. Many will need to work longer to service housing debt. When facing a life‐cycle downturn in annual income, households will be increasingly motivated to tap into their home equity, both by borrowing, for those who stay in their homes, or by downsizing and liquidating some equity, for those who choose to move.     

Subsidized housing,housing prices,and the living arrangements of unmarried mothers

Abstract

Although many studies estimate the effects of welfare benefits on mothers’ living arrangements, housing subsidies and prices are rarely the focus. This article uses a new longitudinal birth cohort study, the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study, to examine the relationship between subsidized housing, housing prices, and the living arrangements of unmarried mothers three years after a nonmarital birth.

Results suggest that the availability of subsidized housing is negatively associated with marriage relative to living alone. Eligibility criteria and means testing in subsidized housing may make marriage a costly choice. Housing prices are positively associated with marriage, cohabitation, and living with family members relative to living alone. Economies of scale may be particularly important for single‐earner households when housing prices increase. Failure to control for housing costs and subsidies leads to underestimates of the effects of welfare and unemployment rates on the living arrangements of unmarried mothers.