Error minimization and deterrence in agency control

In the presented oversight model, in which a regulatory agency may collude with regulatees, a watchdog organization may scrutinize the agency’s decision-making and find evidence speaking for collusive behavior. Found evidence is of a specific, stochastic quality. Courts will overturn the administrative decision when the evidence presented in court exceeds a minimum quality standard set by the political principal. Lowering the quality standard increases the odds of finding evidence of sufficient quality and, hence, leads to increasing collusion deterrence and to a lower probability of acquitting collusive administrators (type I error), but also to a higher probability of convicting an innocent administrator (type II error). It is shown that, when welfare-maximization gives rise to an interior solution, the welfare-maximizing standard of evidence is lower than the one that merely minimizes the costs of legal errors without taking deterrence costs into account, but will imply incomplete deterrence. However, conditions can and will be identified under which both error cost minimization and complete deterrence coincide with welfare-maximization.     

Old (Molotov) cocktails in new bottles? “Price-tag” and settler violence in Israel and the West Bank

In the early morning of July 31, 2015, masked attackers threw firebombs into two Palestinian homes in the West Bank village of Duma, south of Nablus, killing three Palestinian civilians. Contrary to claims by Israeli and Palestinian politicians, this attack was neither an isolated anomaly nor just another incident of settler violence. Instead, it was the latest attack in an important but largely unknown phenomenon called “price-tag,” in which a loosely connected group of young Israelis called “hilltop youth” burn Palestinian mosques and destroy property in hundreds of attacks accompanied by threatening graffiti that references Israeli settlers, outposts, and anti-Arab slogans. Using an original dataset of price-tag incidents and interviews with key actors, we demonstrate that the perpetrators, targets, and strategies of price-tag are different than previous patterns of settler violence. Whereas previous settlers saw the Israeli state as legitimate and largely decided to cooperate with it, the hilltop youth have decided to confront it by using price-tag attacks to deter settlement withdrawals and chain-gang the state into a conflict with the Palestinians. This analysis of the strategic logic of price-tag reveals its potential to shift the political landscape within and between Israelis and Palestinians.     

惩罚性赔偿的根据与适用:法经济学观点

惩罚性赔偿的法经济学研究从20世纪70年代到现在已经产生了许多重要的成果,其中威慑理论最为成熟。但是,除了最优威慑外,还存在其他一些正当化的理由,如赔偿不足、惩罚等。惩罚性赔偿的适用,要考虑行为的可谴责性、被告的财富状况,也要考虑到诉讼成本等诸多因素。     

Criminal thinking as a moderator of the perceived certainty–offending relationship: age variations

ABSTRACT

The purpose of this study was to determine whether the perceived certainty of punishment and general criminal thinking interact and whether the effect varies as a function of age. Data from all 1354 members (1170 males, 184 females) of the Pathways to Desistance study were used to test whether perceived certainty, general criminal thinking, and their interaction predicted subsequent offending during late adolescence (16–18 years of age) and emerging adulthood (20–22 years of age). The results showed that while perceived certainty and general criminal thinking failed to interact at age 17, general criminal thinking moderated the effect of perceived certainty at age 21. During emerging adulthood, offending was more common and varied in young adults with low certainty perceptions and high criminal thinking than it was in emerging adults with high criminal thinking and high certainty perceptions or low criminal thinking and either high or low certainty perceptions.     

The challenge of cyber attack deterrence

National security planners have begun to look beyond reactive, tactical cyber defense to proactive, strategic cyber defense, which may include international military deterrence. The incredible power of nuclear weapons gave birth to deterrence, a military strategy in which the purpose of armies shifted from winning wars to preventing them. Although cyber attacks per se do not compare to a nuclear explosion, they do pose a serious and increasing threat to international security. Real-world examples suggest that cyber warfare will play a lead role in future international conflicts. This article examines the two deterrence strategies available to nation-states (denial and punishment) and their three basic requirements (capability, communication, and credibility) in the light of cyber warfare. It also explores whether the two most challenging aspects of cyber attacks – attribution and asymmetry – will make cyber attack deterrence an impossible task.     

违法阻却事由与犯罪构成体系

违法与责任是犯罪的两大支柱,认定犯罪应当从违法到责任;是否存在违法阻却事由,属于是否具有违法性的判断,因此,应当在违法构成要件之后,接着讨论违法阻却事由。在考察全部构成要件之后才讨论违法阻却事由的做法,不利于对违法性的判断,也不利于保障行为人的自由。     

Focused Deterrence Strategies and Crime Control

Research Summary

Focused deterrence strategies are increasingly being applied to prevent and control gang and group‐involved violence, overt drug markets, and individual repeat offenders. Our updated examination of the effects of focused deterrence strategies on crime followed the systematic review protocols and conventions of the Campbell Collaboration. Twenty‐four quasi‐experimental evaluations were identified in this systematic review. The results of our meta‐analysis demonstrate that focused deterrence strategies are associated with an overall statistically significant, moderate crime reduction effect. Nevertheless, program effect sizes varied by program type and were smaller for evaluations with more rigorous research designs.

Policy Implications

The available empirical evidence suggests these strategies generate noteworthy crime reduction impacts and should be part of a broader portfolio of crime reduction strategies available to policy makers and practitioners. Investments still need to be made, however, to strengthen the overall rigor of program evaluations and improve our understanding of key program activities associated with observed crime reduction impacts.     

Decide your time: Testing deterrence theory's certainty and celerity effects on substance-using probationers

Background

Bolstered by the initial effectiveness of programs such as Hawaii's Project HOPE, the resurgence in practical applications of deterrence theory has focused on certainty and swiftness of punishment. Following this theoretical trend, Delaware's Decide Your Time (DYT) program was designed to manage high risk substance-using probationers by focusing on the certainty of detection through frequent drug tests and graduated but not severe sanctions.

Objective

This paper, stemming from a larger process evaluation of DYT, reports on the theoretical development and implementation issues involved in instituting such a program in a large, urban probation department.

Methods

Data for the current effort consisted of notes taken at DYT management and staff meetings, interviews with key informants, and observational fieldwork.

Results

The evaluation demonstrated that judicial practices, client eligibility, logistics, and cooperation with secure facilities all posed noteworthy issues for program implementation. Perhaps just as important is the willingness of the program managers to listen to front line officers and make necessary changes to ensure the program's effectiveness and efficiency.

Conclusion

This study suggests that the design of similar programs should carefully consider the local legal structure and the policies and practices of the corrections institutions, treatment providers, and probation department.     

威慑与矫正--论法律对医疗事故的预防作用

医疗事故应当"以防为主".法律对医疗事故的预防作用主要有两条思路一是传统的过错责任体系,强调对于个别医生的威慑,促使其提高注意力标准从而避免医疗事故;二是正在研究的"无过错补偿制度",其关注的是整个医疗行业,试图矫正现行的医疗体制,利用制度的记忆来避免医疗事故的发生.由于无过错责任真正从根源上探寻医疗事故的原因,所以它将是有效的预防措施.但是要实现无过错机制的预防功能,必须建构起相应的配套制度,从而从根本上降低医疗事故的发生率.     

The Sanctions-Perceptions Link in a Model of School-based Deterrence

This paper reports a study examining associations between objective indicators of the level of discipline within schools and students’ perceptions of the strictness of discipline. Data were analyzed from the National Education Longitudinal Survey (NELS), a nationally representative panel study of eighth grade students attending public and private schools in 1988. We find evidence for an association between objective and perceived risk of discipline in models that examine the covariation of these two constructs at several cross sections, and in models of change in perceptions as a function of change in school sanctioning climate. Moreover, these associations were strongest in small and less disordered schools.