生物检材中氰化物浓度与保存时间关系研究

通过动物试验，用荧光光度法测定生物检材中氰化物浓度，研究了氰化物浓度与保存时间关系。结果表明，染毒血液高体120h内，氰化物浓度呈平缓直线上升；120h至168h之间呈指数下降；染毒肝脏检材在168h内呈直线上升，建立了线性方程。     

中国情景下的非营利组织市场导向结构研究

在文献回顾的基础上,通过访谈、预试和大样本调查,对我国非营利组织市场导向的结构进行了实证研究.根据访谈内容的编码分析和预试,初步确定非营利组织市场导向量表的题项.采用探索性因子分析、验证性因子分析和结构方程模型.对来自223家非营利组织的问卷调查数据进行了分析.结果表明,我国非营利组织市场导向是一个五因子的结构模型:顾客导向、内部协调、信息收集、行动反应、强调生存.所发展出的非营利组织市场导向量表具有良好的信度水平、收敛效度和区别效度;法理效度的检验还同时表明了非营利组织市场导向对组织的顾客绩效和财务绩效均具有显著正向影响.测量结果显示,样本非营利组织的总体市场导向程度偏低,另外从各组成维度来看,样本非营利组织在实施市场导向活动时,一般较为关注顾客导向、行动反应和内部协调.但是对信息收集和强调生存等方面尚未给予足够的重视.     

网络协议教学中NS仿真实验平台的应用

仿真是分析和评估复杂通信网络的有效方法之一,通过介绍NS的工作原理和仿真过程,提出一种基于定量统计建模方法的网络仿真实验平台,用于辅助网络协议教学、协议优化测试等工作的开展,并通过详细的实例演示了实验平台的运行效果。     

博士学位点区域发展差异与趋势研究——基于2005年至2011年追踪数据的实证分析

通过构建基于博士学位点发展情况的我国区域博士学位点发展模型,并运用多层线性模型(HLM)分析技术对我国31个省份(直辖市或者自治区,以下简称31个省份)博士学位点(二级学科)在2005-2011年期间的发展情况展开追踪研究。实证分析结果显示:第一,我国博士学位点的发展情况表现出显著的区域差异性;第二,区域博士学位点的总体发展趋势表现出线性增长的特点;第三,各省经济发展水平对博士学位点的发展存在显著影响;第四,除了经济发展水平的影响外,还存在其他因素影响区域博士学位点的发展情况。     

Bayesian hierarchical age-period-cohort models with time-structured effects: An application to religious voting in the US, 1972–2008

To examine dynamics of political processes using repeated cross-section data, effects of age, cohort, and time period have to be disentangled. I propose a Bayesian dynamic hierarchical model with cohort and period effects modeled as random walk through time. It includes smoothly time-varying effects of covariates, allowing researchers to study changing effects of individual characteristics on political behavior. It provides a flexible functional form estimate of age by integrating a semi-parametric approach in the hierarchical model. I employ this approach to examine religious voting in the United States using repeated cross-sectional surveys from 1972 to 2008. I find starkly differing nonlinear trends of de- and re-alignment among different religious denominations.     

Valence beyond consensus: Party competence and policy dispersion from a comparative perspective

Part of the growing literature on valence politics interprets the electoral impact of party competence perceptions as resulting from consensus over ideological positions in contemporary societies. The relationship between valence politics and consensus, however, is usually based on either disputable theoretical assumptions or on single-country analyses. In this paper I empirically test the assumptions linking valence politics and policy consensus in a comparative perspective across 21 political systems. The results show no evidence that valence is associated with consensus, and some evidence that the electoral effect of valence is correlated with certain forms of policy dispersion, such as ideological party polarisation. The implication that perceptions of party competence are significantly informed by spatial-based considerations is discussed.     

以马斯洛人本学说浅论加强警察内部公共关系建设的要义

良好、和谐的警察内部公共关系是公安机关搞好外部公共关系的基础和前提。针对目前警察内部公共关系中存在的显见或隐见的问题,我们可以利用马斯洛的人本理论学说,从硬件和软件两方面来加强警察内部公共关系的建设,即通过满足人的五大需求来实现团队绩效的最大化,从而通过警察内部公共关系的良性互动,来实现民警个人与公安工作的共同发展,以期能为警民公共关系的开展打下扎实的基础。     

基于网络媒介的突发性公共危机信息传播仿真和管理对策研究

危机信息的健康传播在突发性公共危机管理中至关重要。为了研究突发性公共危机信息在网络环境中传播的特征,本文以复杂适应系统理论为指导,利用多主体建模方法,基于Repast平台模拟突发性公共危机信息在网络媒介中的传播过程。通过模型仿真我们发现突发性公共危机在网络环境中传播的生命周期现象和群极化现象;并且分析比较了各主体属性在不同参数值下的演化结果,探寻危机信息传播的有效方法,为政府如何应对危机管理提供决策支持,以期有效控制突发性公共危机信息在网络环境的恶性传播。     

论中国民事审级制度面临的挑战及其完善

我国现行民事审级制度不是"舶来品",而是经过漫长的演变过程逐渐形成的。现行法上的"四级两审制"民事审级制度在特定历史时期发挥了其应有的作用,但目前已经无法满足人民群众日益增长的接近司法的需求。我国民事审级制度体系的完善应当确立"四级三审制"、增设职能管辖制度、贯彻上诉利益理论、明确第三审为法律审等基本制度,同时建立允许例外情形下基于法定或意定的原因而适用一审终审制度,以及越级上诉制度和特别上诉制度。     

Stay cool or get hot? An applied primer for using temperature in forensic entomological case work

The reliable reconstruction of the temperature conditions at a crime scene is still a great challenge in forensic-entomological case work. Despite many published standards and guidelines for reconstructing temperature, and studies analysing the influence of various factors on the accuracy on such reconstructions, there are astonishingly many cases in the literature in which the temperature at the place of discovery is not reconstructed at all, i.e. the most common method is using the data of the nearest meteorological weather station without any correlation with on-site data. This study summarizes the state of the art in temperature reconstruction from an entomological point of view and compares the application of generalized additive models (GAMs) and linear regression on the basis of hypothetical death scenarios with various post mortem intervals (PMI) and measurement periods for the correlation between crime scene and weather station. We show that GAMs i.e. analysing the potential delay effect of temperature within a day, are the tools of choice because they give better, i.e. more accurate estimations than linear regression in 95,6% of all analysed cases regardless of the PMI, body discovery site and correlation period. Nevertheless, each case and crime scene is unique and therefore each entomological expertise should discuss the possible strengths and weaknesses of its temperature reconstruction. Even if temperature is not or cannot be reconstructed for various reasons, a comparison of on-site data with those of a meteorological weather station is the minimum forensic experts should do.