Decomposing political knowledge: What is confidence in knowledge and why it matters

While political knowledge has been conceptually defined with two constructs – accuracy and confidence in factual information – conventional measurement of political knowledge has relied heavily on retrieval accuracy. Without measuring confidence-in-knowledge, it is not possible to rigorously identify different types of political informedness, such as misinformedness and uninformedness. This article theoretically explores the two constructs of knowledge and argues that each construct has unique antecedents and behavioral consequences. We suggest a survey instrument for confidence-in-knowledge and introduce a method to estimate latent traits of retrieval accuracy and confidence separately. Using our original survey that includes the measure of confidence-in-knowledge, we find that misinformed citizens are as engaged in politics as the well-informed, but their active involvement does not guarantee informed political choices. Our findings warrant further theoretical and empirical exploration of confidence in political knowledge.     

对西方国际关系理论的哲学思考--兼议中国国际关系理论的构建

从本体论、认识论和方法论3个层面对西方国际关系理论主要流派进行梳理和类归,认为国际关系理论与哲学思想有密切关系。西方国际关系理论重视以哲学本体论-认识论-方法论及其所隐含的价值论体系为基本前提和重要基础,在呈现流派繁荣和学科成熟的同时,也存在着诸如科学与伦理、必然与偶然对立割裂等一些哲学意义上的重大缺陷。认为中国国际关系理论的构建需在哲学层面加强基础性探索和研究。在这一过程中,应处理好“古”与“今”、中”与“外”的关系。参照西方国际关系理论谱系有重要借鉴意义,但强调中国的国际关系理论应更具鲜明的实践品质,并尝试提出了“和谐的国际社会”这一具有现实意义的理论概念和命题。     

项目反应理论参数估计研究中的蒙特卡罗方法

蒙特卡罗(Monte Carlo,MC)方法是项目反应理论(Item Response Theory,IRT)参数估计研究中的重要方法,针对目前对其的理解误区和不当应用,从MC方法的本质思想出发,系统论述了如何在IRT参数估计研究中应用MC方法,重点阐述了将之等同于统计抽样实验的思想,并结合IRT参数估计的特点,介绍了完全交叉MC实验设计方法及其结果分析方法,为MC方法在IRT参数估计研究的应用提供了理论指导。     

A Bridge Too Far? Examining Bridging Assumptions in Common-Space Estimations

While most common-space estimations rely upon members who served in both the House and Senate as “bridges” to scale the remaining members, this assumes that these “bridge members” do not change their preferences when they change chambers. Such an assumption conflicts with standard notions of representation, that is, that legislators’ votes reflect (at least to some degree) the wishes of their constituents. We examine the constancy of this common-space voting assumption by focusing on a subset of House members who move to the Senate: those who come from statewide House districts. Using these members as the bridge actors—and thus bridging by constituency explicitly—in a one-dimensional item response theory model, we find that the standard assumption of chamber switchers in common-space estimations is technically, but immaterially, false. While there are statistically distinguishable differences in House and Senate voting records for chamber switchers, they are not sufficiently large to meaningfully undermine bridging.     

Assessing criminal thought content: preliminary validation of the criminal thought content inventory (CTCI)

The purpose of this study was to evaluate a measure of criminal thought content entitled the Criminal Thought Content Inventory (CTCI). The 30-item CTCI generates a total score and scores for three individual dimensions or scales: Negative Attitudes toward Authority (NAA), Positive Attitudes toward Deviance (PAD), and Criminal Identity (CID). Students from two universities (N?=?335 and 456) completed the CTCI, along with measures of criminal thought process and delinquent behavior. According to the results of several analyses, the CTCI possesses adequate internal consistency, good test-retest reliability, and adequate concurrent validity. Confirmatory factor analyses performed on both samples offered support for the three-dimensional structure of the CTCI and an item response theory analysis indicated that over 80% of the items loaded at least moderately on a single latent trait. These results suggest that the CTCI possesses the requisite psychometric properties to warrant inclusion in studies investigating criminal thought content.