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Levine SZ 《Law and human behavior》2009,33(2):167-174
This study examined the extent to which the contingencies risk framework (consisting of dispositional, historical, contextual,
and clinical domains) predicted detected recidivism (i.e., arrest or conviction). Secondary data were extracted on 413 prisoners
who underwent a psychiatric evaluation, were assessed on the risk domains, and followed up over 20 years. There were 273 (66.1%)
cases of recidivism for serious offenses (e.g., assaults). Criminal career outcomes examined included: years to and the incidence
of recidivism. Statistics showed that chance classification of the incidence of recidivism was 21% more accurate for the recursive
partitioning than the bilinear model. These results are consistent with the contingencies risk framework, support its use
over linear models, and highlight its predictive utility. 相似文献
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Jos Weusten Jos Herbergs 《Forensic Science International: Genetics Supplement Series》2012,6(1):17-25
In forensic DNA profiling use is made of the well-known technique of PCR. When the amount of DNA is high, generally unambiguous profiles can be obtained, but for low copy number DNA stochastic effects can play a major role. In order to shed light on these stochastic effects, we present a simple model for the amplification process. According to the model, three possible things can happen to an individual single DNA strand in each complete cycle: successful amplification, no amplification, or amplification with the introduction of stutter. The model is developed in mathematical terms using a recursive approach: given the numbers of chains at a given cycle, the numbers in the next can be described using a multinomial probability distribution. A full set of recursive relations is derived for the expectations and (co)variances of the number of amplicon chains with no, 1 or 2 stutters. The exact mathematical solutions of this set are given, revealing the development of the expectations and (co)variances as function of the cycle number. The equations reveal that the expected number of amplicon chains without stutter grows exponentially with the cycle number, but for the chains with stutter the relation is more complex. The relative standard deviation on the numbers of chains (coefficient of variation) is inversely proportional to the square root of the expected number of DNA strands entering the amplification. As such, for high copy number DNA the stochastic effects can be ignored, but they play an important role at low concentrations. For the allelic peak, the coefficient of variation rapidly stabilizes after a few cycles, but for the chains with stutter the decrease is more slowly. Further, the ratio of the expected intensity of the stutter peak over that of the allelic peak increases linearly with the number of cycles. Stochastic models, like the one developed in the current paper, can be important in further developing interpretation rules in a Bayesian context. 相似文献
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