文明论:东北亚研究的新视角

作为东北亚区域研究重要的理论架构,文明理论可以帮助我们打破传统的东亚文明“浑然一体论”的束缚,进一步理解东北亚区域文明的基础构造,把握东北亚区域文明结构体系内部“中心—边缘”间复杂的互动关系,处理好国别研究和区域文明整体研究之间的关系,在比较中加深我们对东北亚区域的理解。     

Adaptation and Appropriation on the Colonial Frontier: Indigenous Leadership in the Colombian Chocó, 1670–1808

This article explores the consequences for the native population of the Colombian Chocó of the emergence, over the course of the eighteenth century, of an elite of caciques and indios mandones or principales whose functions of powers far exceeded those of the warrior chiefs that had traditionally acted as leaders of their people. Appointed for the purpose of facilitating the collection of tribute and the supply of labour to European settlers, caciques and mandones were almost universally rejected by native communities during the early phases of Spanish colonisation (c. 1630–1690), and they disappear from the historical record after Independence. Eighteenth‐century sources, however, not only record the existence of a clearly defined elite of mandones or principales in villages across the region, but show these individuals engaging actively with the colonial authorities, on behalf of their communities, at local and audiencia levels. This article argues that, at a time of a much strengthened European presence in the region, caciques and mandones came to understand their roles in ways that were entirely different from those intended by the Spanish, and in so doing acquired the legitimacy that had eluded their seventeenth‐century predecessors. Far from serving merely as intermediaries between settlers and indigenous populations, indios mandones acted as negotiators on behalf of the indigenous population, whose task was to defend and/or advance the interests of the communities they had been appointed to control.     

市场结构优化与苏南产业结构升级

加快产业结构优化升级是进入工业化中后期苏南地区经济发展面临的主要课题。同世界产业市场寡头化发展趋势相比,苏南产业市场表现为过度竞争的市场结构。这一市场结构严重影响了苏南产业结构的高度化发展和知识经济成分的培育。因此,推进苏南地区市场结构寡头化,是加快苏南产业结构升级的重要路径。     

中日韩自贸区的可行性与经济周期规律

自2002年中日韩自由贸易区的构想提出以来,学界和决策部门对其建立的可行性仍持怀疑态度。本研究率先采用惩罚性样条滤波（Penalized Spline Filter）对中日韩实际产出变量进行分解,计算了周期项的相关系数和滚动相关性并检验了格兰杰因果关系,探讨建立三国自贸区的可行性。实证研究结果表明：中日、中韩间同期相关度低,但日韩间具有显著的同期相关性,并自1998年趋强,三者之间无格兰杰因果关系。因此,笔者认为从经济周期的协动性角度来看,建立中日韩自由贸易区的时机尚未成熟。建议可以先尝试建立日韩自由贸易区,逐步推进中日韩自贸区进程。     

也谈南海断续线的法律性质

南海断续线的法律性质对于澄清南海问题的实质及问题的解决具有重要意义。综合各种因素考虑,其作为岛屿(礁)归属线的性质可以确证,而海上国界线、历史性水域线及历史性权利线等表述均存在瑕疵,为巩固我国对线内水域的权利主张,除岛屿(礁)归属线外,将其同时界定为可管辖水域线较为可取。     

Trends and mechanisms of corruption in South Korea

Corruption remains one of the key obstacles to democratization and good governance. Given the nature of the subject, corruption is notoriously difficult to study. International comparisons and rankings of good governance such as the World Bank World Governance Indicators, the Bertelsmann Sustainable Governance Index, or Transparency International's Global Corruption Index are very useful for providing the big picture on corruption. To understand trends and mechanisms of corruption, however, it is necessary to conduct case studies on both successful and failed cases of anti-corruption policies. This paper investigates the successes and challenges of the fight against corruption in South Korea since the beginning of democratization in 1987. The investigation shows that Korea has generally been successful in controlling corruption. The paper argues that the remaining problems can be largely explained by the legacy of authoritarian rule and the undermining of state autonomy through the concentration of economic power.     

地区安全治理的未来:走向亚洲协调

作者首次提出了"亚洲协调"的概念,讨论了亚洲协调对未来亚洲及太平洋地区安全治理的必要性和长远性。尽管最早的主要国家之间协调(concert of powers)的理论与实践是19世纪的、欧洲的,但是,关于主要国家之间协调(不仅是大国协调)的一般理论却同样可以运用在解决21世纪的亚洲(以及太平洋)的严峻安全挑战和困境上。这些挑战和困境在未来可能会进一步演化为严重的大国之间的对抗甚至冲突。更重要的是,亚洲协调将注定会阻止战争、实现长期和平及维持本地区的经济活力。也就是说,如果亚洲协调明智地和有效地建立并运作起来,到2079年,亚洲以及太平洋将拥有一百年的和平,如同欧洲在1815-1914年拥有的百年和平。从1979年到现在,亚洲地区已经享受了接近四十年的和平。在过去二十多年建立起来的地区或者跨地区的论坛、会议、组织和制度等,反映了治理亚洲地区的权力转移的企图和努力;尽管这些安排相互重叠、尚未彼此兼容,甚至相互竞争,但我们完全可以把它们当做未来亚洲协调的基础。虽然目前的地区安全治理仍然由美国及其同盟体系占据主导地位,但美国也不得不重视复杂的安全地区主义。有不少人建议美国应该以亚洲协调作为未来解决与中国关系的方案。中国已经为建立在经济发展基础上的亚洲和平做出重大贡献。中国已与美国建立"新型大国关系"回应美国的"转向亚洲"。中国在亚洲协调中的地位是中心的和关键的。     

朝贡体系下古代东亚秩序形成与维系的内在逻辑——批判地借鉴英国学派的分析方法

古代东亚秩序的形成与维系，同历史悠久的朝贡体系有着直接的关系。因此，要有效揭示古代东亚秩序的内在逻辑，应当批判地借鉴以历史主义见长的英国学派的分析方法，探讨朝贡体系的运行机制和内在本质。在古代，中国与朝鲜长时段的朝贡体系实质上是一种由中国主导并以其特有文化为基础、周边诸政权普遍认可和积极参与的特殊国际制度。就中国而言，完全独立的政治体制、自给自足的经济结构、等级制的世界观，使其对外部的需求仅限于其他政权对其至高无上地位的承认及其对相关制度安排的服从。而对周边诸政权来说，只有与实力超强的中国建立朝贡关系，它们才能获得合法性和安全保障，并取得与中国贸易的机会，从而实现生存与发展两大目标。由此可以得出如下结论：在缺乏文化共识的前提下，由地区强国主导，可以促成某种功能性的国际制度，使地区秩序得以维护，并在交往过程中反向促成文化认同。这一结论修正了英国学派关于共有文化与国际制度的关系的观点。     

“孟不印尼”合作倡议及其发展趋势

"孟不印尼"(BBIN)合作倡议是由印度发起的一个南亚东北部次区域合作倡议。目的是绕开长期被印巴矛盾拖累的南盟,通过在印度东部、孟加拉国、尼泊尔和不丹之间建立一个涉及公路、铁路、内河运输、航空和电力网络的次区域联通体系,推动南亚东部次区域一体化进程。目前,"孟不印尼"倡议的里程碑"机动车协议"已经达成但尚未完全生效。铁路联通协议开始讨论并已有前期收获,其他领域尚未进入正式谈判阶段。"孟不印尼"合作倡议体现了相关国家和地区对互联互通的渴望与要求,符合该地区的长远利益。印度试图借此解决其东北部的交通瓶颈问题,巩固其南亚交通枢纽的地位,并试图在更大地理范围内扩大印度的地缘优势。但是,这一倡议受到印度国家能力的限制以及与其他成员国之间复杂关系的影响。一方面,印度东部地区经济发展水平低下,不足以成为吸引周边国家的经济发动机。另一方面,BBIN国家经济发展水平相近,经济结构高度相似,经济互补性有限。成员国从BBIN倡议中获得的潜在收益,可能会不如预期,将挫伤相关国家的积极性。再加上资金保障不力、管理机制对接困难,BBIN的推进将会比较困难。     

POLICIES OF LAST RESORT FOR DEALING WITH NORTH KOREA’S NUCLEAR WEAPONS PROGRAMME

This paper analyzes the policy remedies for dealing with North Korea's nuclear weapons and missile programs. After six nuclear tests and three recent successful ICBM tests, North Korea is close to miniaturizing nuclear warheads and establishing a reliable delivery system, thus achieving a much-feared nuclear weapons capability. In defiance of the extraordinarily tough U.N. Security Council resolutions, Pyongyang persists in developing nuclear weapons. North Korea's nuclear weapons program already has exceeded the strategic patience, of the U.S.-ROK alliance. Harsher policy options to deal with the DPRK nuclear weapons are imperative. Several drastic options, including severe sanctions, preventive bombing, nuclear armament of South Korea, are evaluated in the final round of engagement policy on guaranteeing nonaggression and a peace agreement with Pyongyang.