高等教育与经济水平关系的统计分析

用人口加权方法对世界各国的高等教育入学率与人均GNP、农业产值比例关系、服务业产值比例关系、城市化人口比例关系进行统计回归,利用软件进行曲线估计,以此确定在众多回归模型中的最适合模型。利用数学模型,可以为我国的高等教育规划提供科学依据。     

社会主义新农村养老保障探析

在新形势下,传统的农村养老体制面临着前所未有的挑战和机遇,因此在巩固传统的家庭养老方式的同时,逐步建立和完善多样化的农村养老保障体系势在必行。在建设社会主义新农村的契机下,有必要探索出一条多层次、灵活多样的农村养老之路;发挥个人、家庭、政府、社会的协力,最终实现“老有所养、老有所医、老有所乐”这一夙愿。     

中国对东南亚公共外交的问题与建议

公共外交是国家的一项重要战略资产，对于传播本国外交理念，塑造国家形象，改善本国的国际舆论环境有重要的意义。但作为一种外交手段，公共外交也具有局限性，其作用不应该过度被夸大。本文以中国在东南亚地区的公共外交为例，分析了我国公共外交存在的问题并提出了政策建议。     

受贿罪实证研究

受贿罪是我国司法实践中的常见、多发罪，也一直是我国反腐败领域重点打击的对象。在本文研究的648例样本中，受贿罪的无罪判决率为0．62％，免予刑事处罚的判决率为2．78％，缓刑判决率为16．77％，事实上的自由刑（含拘役、有期徒刑、无期徒刑、死刑缓期两年执行）判决率为92．7％，死刑立即执行判决率为4．35％；648例全样本，平均受贿数额844167．70元，其中受贿金额5万元以上的占总样本数的73．6％，10万元以上的占56．5％，宣告刑平均刑期为8．79年，其中受贿数额5万元以上不满10万元的平均刑期仅5．32年，接近于法定最低刑5年有期徒刑；在548例大样本中，平均受贿次数为9．45次，平均每次受贿数额为65331．45元，被告人受贿次数在2～5次之间的占样本总数的40％左右；受贿罪的平均案发时间间隔为49．70个月（4．14年），其中案发时间间隔在5年以上的样本数达217例，占样本总数的34％左右。“一把手”犯罪较为严重，占样本数的40．54％，单位领导（包括正职、副职等）犯罪占样本数的63．43％。     

伦理学基本问题再认识

伦理学界对伦理学的基本问题有种种不同看法 ,为了推进伦理学理论研究 ,有必要对这一问题加以再认识。如果我们从社会生活的基本问题以及伦理学的研究对象、伦理学的规范体系、伦理学的学科性质等方面加以综合的思考 ,那就必须确认 :现代伦理学只有把道德规范与意志自由的关系问题作为基本问题 ,才能适应当代社会生活的现实需要     

国际金融危机下的菲律宾银行业

菲律宾银行业在经历国际金融危机过程中,虽然盈利能力有所下降,但基本运行状况良好,经营风险程度有所改善。这得益于菲律宾政府一系列积极有效的应对危机的措施。尽管如此,菲律宾银行业整体仍存在监管滞后及资产管理水平比较落后等亟待解决的问题。     

廖建裕与印尼华人研究

印度尼西亚是“一带一路”沿线重要的节点国家,印尼华人是印尼国家多元民族中不可分割的一部分,在印度尼西亚不同历史时期,他们都发挥了重要作用。作为著名的海外华人研究学者,廖建裕先生从不同角度和层面对印尼华人和东南亚华人进行了深入研究和探讨,取得了丰硕的成果,本文介绍他的学术生平、学术贡献以及他对印尼民族国家建构的理论和观点。     

群众公权观:创新社会管理的思想基础

本文以社会管理公仆路线和社群路线的分析为视角,提出社会管理的思想原则:贯彻群众路线克服官僚主义;以权为民所赋、责为民利谋的群众公权观的思想创新为基础,通过对社会管理预算与服务博弈矩阵的分析,阐释了党委在社会管理两对基本矛盾关系中,统领天理,协调人欲的地位和作用。     

SELECTIVE INCAPACITATION,THREE STRIKES,AND THE PROBLEM OF AGING PRISON POPULATIONS: USING SIMULATION MODELING TO SEE THE FUTURE*

Research Summary: The growth of prison populations over the last three decades is a great source of concern for policy makers and observers. One mechanism by which this growth occurs is via sentencing reforms that extend length of stay for certain categories of offenders. This has the effect of aging prison populations, which is problematic for many reasons. Apart from the increased financial burdens entailed in caring for older prisoners, it is also important to consider the intent of reforms in evaluating them. Of late, sentencing reform has become increasingly focused on the selective incapacitation of dangerous offenders. Policies that have the effect of aging the prison population are problematic from this perspective due to the diminishing returns realized with respect to incapacitation as offenders age. Dynamic systems simulation analysis is employed to investigate the likely consequences of recent sentencing reforms that increase length of stay for some offenders. These analyses indicate that the effects of recent reforms may not be as dramatic as some observers have predicted, but they suggest that the consideration of alternatives to incarceration for elderly offenders is warranted from the standpoint of cost considerations as well as that of selective incapacitation. Policy Implications: The results indicate that California's Three Strikes law will not accelerate the rate of growth of the elderly prison population. However, even without increasing the proportional representation of elderly prisoners, the number of elderly prisoners is expected to grow substantially over the next three decades. These prisoners will strain criminal justice system resources while presenting little public safety threat. State criminal justice policy makers and their constituents should closely examine laws that impose very long stays without discretionary release, as these statutes may contribute to the production of elderly prisoners. This problem is particularly pronounced in Three Strikes and other habitual offender laws that use retrospective methods to identify habitual offenders. Additionally, the effects of reforms lengthening stay for some offenders must be considered in light of cumulative effects of sentencing reform resulting in changes to the demographic structure of the prison population overall. Dynamic systems simulation modeling is presented as a valuable policy‐making tool, as it allows the policy analyst to examine the potential impacts of laws in the absence of data suitable for conventional statistical analyses.     

An Italian Leitmotiv? Corruption and Competence in the Debates of the Italian Chamber of Deputies (1946–2014)

By making use of an original data-set built based on a codification of all investiture debates of the Italian governments from 1946 to 2014, the paper investigates the main factors that explain the choice of a party to devote its attention to the valence issues of corruption and competence in its legislative speeches. Two classes of hypotheses are tested; the first concentrates on spatial reasons, and the second concentrates on contextual factors. Both sets of factors appear to play a significant role, although no clear temporal trend emerges in party attention over almost seventy years of Italian parliamentary debates.