Appeals to Reason

This article considers how statistical reasoning changes conceptions of evidence and proof. Beginning with three Court of Appeal judgments in which proof is quantified, it traces the implications of statistical ways of thinking about proof through the law of criminal evidence. This leads to the bizarre conclusion that proof is, by and large, impossible. The argument then takes a more constructive turn. The way in which the presumption of innocence is conceptualised in statistical argument is criticised and it is suggested that proof depends on a precondition of trust in the way suspects are selected by the police. For that trust to be deserved, police suspects must be chosen in a legitimate manner.     

都市现代农业发展策略

都市现代农业作为一种新型农业形态，是农村与城市、农业与非农业等进一步融合过程中的形成一种发达的现代农业。要多方面筹集资金，采用现代技术，实施长远规划，促进其可持续发展。     

Kidnap for Ransom in South East Asia

Kidnapping for ransom is not a new phenomenon. According to the Control Risk Group, an international risk consultancy, kidnappings of foreign nationals globally have increased by 275% over the past 10 years. High profile incidents such as the tourist kidnappings in 2000 by the Abu Sayyaf group, operating out of the troubled southern region of the Philippines, show that South East Asia has its own regionalised kidnapping hotspots. It is suspected that a high proportion of kidnappings are perpetrated by economically motivated crime groups but it is not possible to estimate with any degree of accuracy what percentage can be attributed to organised crime. This article will provide an overview of the problem, drawing upon existing literature available in the public domain. A typological discussion will show the critical differences between the various categories of kidnapping. The reliability of existing statistics, categorisation and recording of kidnapping for ransom will also be scrutinised, in particular for their variability across the region, to see whether this presents a barrier to a better understanding of the size and seriousness of the problem. As kidnapping for ransom incidents are becoming increasingly transnational in character, the final section will highlight the desirability of formulating and agreeing upon regional standardised definitions and counting rules for kidnap.     

Criminal Violence and Youth in Sweden: A Long-term Perspective

Since the mid-1980s, the Swedish public has become increasingly concerned about juvenile violence. This article confronts the public belief of increasing juvenile violence with systematic criminological data from crime statistics and other sources. Based on police and court statistics, as well as data from victimization studies and cause-of-death statistics, it is concluded that there is good reason to believe that Sweden is currently experiencing an 'enforcement wave' with regard to juvenile violence (particularly in the youngest age brackets), which reinforces the image of dramatic increases in the level of juvenile violence. The reasons why juvenile violence is thought to be on the increase even in the face of a lack of hard empirical evidence are discussed. Four long- and short-term trends are proposed as possible explanations: (i) the well-ordered modern society; (ii) the role of the mass media; (iii) the growth of feminine values; and (iv) the application of an offensive model of crime policy.     

The likelihood approach to compare populations: a study on DNA evidence and pitfalls of intuitions

The paper follows on from earlier work [Taroni F and Aitken CGG. Probabilistic reasoning in the law, Part 1: assessment of probabilities and explanation of the value of DNA evidence. Science & Justice 1998; 38: 165-177]. Different explanations of the value of DNA evidence were presented to students from two schools of forensic science and to members of fifteen laboratories all around the world. The responses were divided into two groups; those which came from a school or laboratory identified as Bayesian and those which came from a school or laboratory identified as non-Bayesian. The paper analyses these responses using a likelihood approach. This approach is more consistent with a Bayesian analysis than one based on a frequentist approach, as was reported by Taroni F and Aitken CGG. [Probabilistic reasoning in the law, Part 1: assessment of probabilities and explanation of the value of DNA evidence] in Science & Justice 1998.     

关于公安院校《概率论与数理统计》课程建设的思考

结合公安院校学生的专业背景与概率论和数理统计课程的需求，在传统的教学内容、教学模式、考核方式等方面进行改革，旨在提高概率论与数理统计的教学效果，进一步加强学生应用概率论与数理统计知识解决实际问题的能力。     

公安统计学案例教学研究

随着统计研究的不断深入和统计应用的不断推广,公安工作对统计的需求也越来越大,这就要求公安教育应培养具备必要统计知识、掌握一定统计方法的专业人才。然而传统的公安统计教学模式注重于基础理论教育,忽视学生能力的培养,教学效果不理想,难以达到教学目的。该文从案例教学法的特点出发,结合当前公安统计学教学中存在的问题,分析了在公安统计教学中实施案例教学的必要性和具体步骤,并讨论了在实施案例教学过程中应注意的几个问题。     

中韩建交二十年来中国的韩国现代文学研究综述

中国的韩国现代文学研究起步较晚,但发展迅速。中韩建交20年来,中国学者共发表韩国现代文学研究论文180余篇,其中包括研究生学位论文37篇,专门从事韩国现代文学研究的学者人数不断增加。本文利用文献计量学的方法对中韩建交以来中国的韩国现代文学研究成果从年度分布、研究主题及其分期、刊载期刊、主要作者等几个方面进行了量化统计。在此基础上,梳理中国韩国现代文学研究的发展历程,分析韩国现代文学研究的现状并指出存在的主要问题。     

公安文书写作教学效果分析——一份“请示”作业的错误分析与归因

本文通过统计和分析学生"请示"作业错误之处,归纳"请示"错误类型,总结学生作业主要错误规律,从教师和学生两个角度分析"请示"作业错误原因,同时指出错误改进的可能性。