Terrorist violence and the enrollment of psychology in predicting Muslim extremism: critical terrorism studies meets critical algorithm studies

Discourse on terrorist violence has long facilitated an especially liberal form of securitisation. Originally evoked in reference to anarchists and communists, a rational consideration of terrorist violence, inaugurated by the concept, asks for deferred judgement about the nature of, or reasons behind, violence related to terror on the premise that state and international legal norms governing the legitimate use of violence fail to circumscribe the proper capacities of the state to regulate and explain terrorism. Where sovereign powers along with their military and civilian instruments of coercion are deemed unable to regulate violence effectively, analysts of terrorist violence and their readership are invited to consider and cultivate new sensibilities. Beginning in the 1980s, studies by psychologists found renewed urgency among a growing cadre of interdisciplinary terror experts who found religion, Islam especially, a key variable of analysis. I situate their contributions in a longer history of secular and racialising discourse about terrorist violence. Central to this history are practices of reading, translating, interpreting and archiving texts. Evidence for the argument is based on the analysis of an algorithm that allegedly predicts the likelihood of terrorist strikes by counting words spoken by al-Qa?ida leaders and correlating their frequency with over 30 psychological categories.     

中国经济发展态势和调整转型——2013年第1季度宏观经济分析

今年1季度中国GDP增长7.7%,工业增加值增长9.5%,CPI上涨2.4%,与希望回升的预期相反,均比上年同期和上季度要低,但增长回落正是经济调整转型之机。M2余额超过百万亿元,不能仅从货币政策操作考察是否存在货币超发,而要深入一步,看看政府投资创造货币的特殊机制。房地产调控中的博弈,一方面说明政策设计存在缺陷;另一方面也与特殊的货币创造机制有关。撤销铁道部,组建铁路总公司,实现了组织机构上的政企分离,但经济上仍合在一起。以债务处理为契机,明晰产权安排和经营责任,进一步推进铁路改革。     

养老服务业的市场需求分析

老龄化程度的不断加深,为我国养老服务业的发展提供了客观需要和外在的基础条件。本文首先阐述了养老服务业的市场构成和影响养老服务业市场需求的诸多因素,然后在消费者调查的基础上,着重分析了我国养老服务业的市场需求潜力。     

The Impact of Confidence on the Accuracy of Structured Professional and Actuarial Violence Risk Judgments in a Sample of Forensic Psychiatric Patients

Some previous research indicates that confidence affects the accuracy of probabilistic clinical ratings of risk for violence among civil psychiatric inpatients. The current study investigated the impact of confidence on actuarial and structured professional risk assessments, in a forensic psychiatric population, using community violence as the outcome criteria. Raters completed the HCR-20 violence risk assessment scheme for a sample of 100 forensic psychiatric patients. Results showed that accuracy of both actuarial judgments (HCR-20 total scores) and structured professional judgments (of low, moderate, and high risk) were substantially more accurate when raters were more confident about their judgments. Findings suggest that confidence of ratings should be studied as a potentially important mediator of structured professional and actuarial risk judgments.     

刑法解释限度理论之关系论纲

刑法解释限度是刑法解释所能达到的具体、客观的程度和范围,应具有内在规范性、客观性与确定性的品质,应是质的限度与量的限度的统一体,是事实与规范关系性的限度。刑法解释限度的三种理论学说中,国民的预测可能性由于其自身的特征与独特的适用场域,并不符合刑法解释限度的特征标准,是不能作为刑法解释限度而存在的。法文语义理论由于所持的立场不同于刑法解释限度之立场,加之宽泛性与抽象性的缺陷以及自身限度的虚设性,使得其作为刑法解释限度不具有真正的合理性。犯罪定型才应作为解释限度予以真正对待。将犯罪定型作为刑法解释限度,完全符合刑法解释限度特征之要求,符合刑法规范整体性、系统性的特征,能够更好地处理犯罪定型与法文语义理论、预测可能性理论之间的关系。     

鸭肠炎病毒UL6基因B细胞表位的预测及其主要抗原域的原核表达

采用DNAStar Protean程序,综合运用二级结构、亲水性、可塑性和抗原性指数等参数,对鸭肠炎病毒(DEV)CHv毒株UL6基因(GenBank登录号EF055890)的氨基酸序列进行了B细胞表位预测。结果显示,UL6蛋白羧基端第Thr507~Gln515、Thr521~Met529、Asp531~Phe539、Gly544~Asn562、Thr568~Gln585、Lys592~Val604、Ala681~Ala778和Tyr780~Lys790区域内含有优势B细胞表位。以DEVCHv毒株基因组作为PCR模板,利用Oligo6.0软件设计了1对引物,整体扩增涵盖上述具有优势表位的基因片段,将其亚克隆到原核表达载体pET-32a( )中,获得表达载体pET-32a-UL6M,再将其转化至E.coliRosetta(DE3),经IPTG诱导,外源基因获得了良好表达。以兔抗DEV多克隆血清进行Western-blot分析,抗血清可与该融合蛋白发生特异性反应。提示,该氨基酸片段可能含有软件预测的线性表位区。     

On prediction in political science

This article discusses recent moves in political science that emphasise predicting future events rather than theoretically explaining past ones or understanding empirical generalisations. Two types of prediction are defined: pragmatic, and scientific. The main aim of political science is explanation, which requires scientific prediction. Scientific prediction does not necessarily entail pragmatic prediction nor does it necessarily refer to the future, though both are desiderata for political science. Pragmatic prediction is not necessarily explanatory, and emphasising pragmatic prediction will lead to disappointment, as it will not always help in understanding how to intervene to change future outcomes, and policy makers are likely to be disappointed by its time-scale.