我国小学生社会灾难技能影响因素分析——基于ordered probit模型的估计

目前学界对我国小学生灾难教育缺乏专项研究。基于全国性问卷调研数据,利用orderedprobit回归模型对我国小学生社会灾难技能影响因素进行微观实证分析,分析了个人、家庭、学校、社会四个层面中的11种因素的影响作用。研究发现,学校教育、家庭教育、社区教育、媒体教育、自我教育五种因素对我国小学生社会灾难技能的掌握呈显著正向影响;小学生社会灾难技能存在性别和城乡差异。我国应构建政府主导下的学校、家庭、社区、媒体、自我五种教育协同作用的小学生灾难教育体系;依据小学生的性别及城乡差异,开展针对性教育。     

Drug use and pretrial misconduct in New York city

Is recent drug use significantly associated with pretrial misconduct? Does consideration of recent drug use enhance risk classification among a sample of persons who have time free pending the disposition of their cases? Using data on arrestees in Manhattan, this paper examines these issues and some related questions. To measure recent drug use, urine samples were collected from persons shortly after their arrest and tested for four drugs: heroin, cocaine, PCP, and methadone. Two measures of pretrial misconduct are considered: whether a defendant fails to appear for a scheduled court date (FTA) and whether a defendant is rearrested prior to case disposition. Censored probit models are used to estimate the statistical association between drug test results and pretrial misconduct. Results show that drug test results are significantly associated with pretrial misconduct over and above the information typically available to judges at the time release decisions are made. Some implications of these findings for pretrial decision making are discussed.     

Status of Mandibular Third Molar Development as Evidence in Legal Age Threshold Cases

The completion of the third molar roots has played an important role in ascertaining whether individuals may be at or over a legal threshold of age, often taken as 18 years. This study demonstrates that root apex completion in the third molar is relatively uninformative regarding the threshold of age 18 years in a sample of 1184 males, where mean age‐of‐attainment of root apex completion for third mandibular molars is about 19.4 years. This paper also considers the legal age threshold problem for cases where the third mandibular molar is not completely formed, and outlines the use of parametric models and Bayes’ factors to evaluate dental evidence in statistically appropriate ways. It attempts to resolve confusion over age‐within‐stage versus age‐of‐attainment, likelihood ratios versus other diagnostic tests, and prior odds for a case versus the prior density for an age distribution.     

Effect of Choice of Measure on the Size of a Racial Disparity

In criminological studies of racial disparities the effect of race on outcomes is assessed after statistical controls for other variables. There is no universally accepted measure of size of disparity after controls in the most common type of disparity study: the study of binary outcomes. Some such studies use a measure that lends itself to interpretation in terms of the proportional reduction in error (PRE). Most use a non-PRE measure of association. This study investigates the effect of choice of measure on conclusions about the size of a disparity after controls. For illustrative purposes the study analyzes data on the awarding of sentence reductions to drug traffickers. After controls, blacks are found to be substantially less likely than whites to receive a reduction according to a type of non-PRE measure: an odds ratio derived from a logit model. But using the same data and model, PRE measures obtained from an ROC analysis indicate that, after controls, there is hardly any difference between the races in their likelihood of sentence reduction. Results illustrate the study's thesis: that the choice of measure can powerfully affect conclusions. The findings' implications—for policymakers and for researchers who conduct racial disparity studies—are discussed.     

Impunity or Punishment? An Analysis of Criminal Investigation into Kidnapping,Terrorism and Embezzlement in Colombia

This paper aims to identify the variables that contribute to explain the current ability of the Colombian criminal system to resolve cases of kidnapping, terrorism and embezzlement. In order to achieve this goal a sample of cold cases and sentenced files were analysed in three main cities of the country. The success of a criminal investigation was divided into three stages: a) the identification of at least one suspect per case; b) the accusation and putting on trial of the suspect; and c) his/her conviction. Econometric techniques were used to identify the criminal investigation variables associated to each of the three successes. Variables such as the evidence and investigative practices used by the judicial police, the attorneys and the courts were taken into account. The results of this study have important implications for criminal investigation and crime policy in Colombia and in the region.     

Race and the probability of pleading guilty

The legal ramifications of pleading guilty and findings of an interdependence between pleading guilty and sentence severity suggest that the guilty plea decision is a significent turning point in case processing. The present research examines the variables affecting the probability of pleading guilty. The first analysis involves estimating a single probit equation of main effects of variables previously found to be related to pleading guilty. A second analysis is conducted estimating the same equation separately for black defendants and white defendants. Findings from the first part of the analysis indicate that physical evidence, number of charges, and confessing to the crime during police/prosecutor interrogation increase the probability of pleading guilty, whereas the number of witnesses, use of a weapon, and offenses carrying a minimum penalty of 5 years in custody with no maximum prison term decrease the probability of pleading guilty. Findings from the second analysis indicate that the effect of marital status, prior record of felony convictions, type of counsel, number of charges, and use of a weapon on the probability of pleading guilty varies by defendant's race. The research concludes by offering several competing explanations of these findings in hope of stimulating further research on the variables affecting the route of case disposition in felony processing.     

Effects of Parturition on Pelvic Age Indicators

This research assessed whether parity has a differential effect on age indicators of the pelvis. The data were collected from the William M. Bass Donated Skeletal Collection. Age indicators of the pubic symphysis and auricular surface were assessed using the Todd, Suchey–Brooks, Lovejoy et al., and Buckberry and Chamberlain scoring systems. A transition analysis was conducted, and scoring systems of the pubic symphysis showed the parous female group transitioning between eight and 14 years earlier than the nulliparous female and male groups, and 1 and 7 years earlier using the auricular surface methods. A likelihood ratio test produced significantly different results between parous and nulliparous females using the pubic symphysis (p < 0.01) but not the auricular surface (p > 0.05). Although parous females were inaccurately assessed more often than nulliparous females, no correction of methods is necessary at this time as current standards take parity into account by utilizing a lumped female sample.     

The Sources of Pension Reforms in Western Europe: Domestic Factors,Policy Diffusion,or Common Shock?

Existing research has linked the adoption of pension reforms to demographic pressures, party ideology, and the diffusion of social policy ideas. We argue that pension policy change in Western Europe is also related to the “shock” of European Monetary Union (EMU). We use a Spatial Autoregressive Probit model with event-history features to test whether the decision to reform can be best explained by domestic factors, diffusion dynamics, or similar exposure to a common shock. We find that EMU made pension reform more likely for low and moderately indebted countries in the early 1990s but delayed reform in the late 1990s. Demographic pressures and policy diffusion also mattered for reform adoption, but not more than the EMU shock.     

Adoption of Performance Measurement: Evidence of Mexican Municipalities

In this article we define and estimate empirical models to study the determinants of adoption of performance indicators by Mexican municipalities. Building upon previous studies, we prove whether the adoption decision depends on the locality size, variables related to resources, and the political/cultural differences. We implement the empirical models using the data from 300 municipalities for the year 2000. Unlike related literature that relies on surveys applied to local officials, our data from independent and dependent variables were obtained from different sources in order to avoid common-source bias. The estimated logit and probit models confirm the hypotheses.     

Rearrest probabilities for the 1984–1993 apprehended Western Australian population: A survival analysis

A large population of all persons arrested by police in Western Australia for the first time between April 1, 1984, and June 30, 1993 (n=146,038), were followed up to determine if they have ever been rearrested. Probabilities of rearrest were estimated at 0.52 for male non-Aborigines, 0.36 for female non-Aborigines, 0.88 for male Aborigines, and 0.85 for female Aborigines. Significant variations in the probability of rearrest and/or time to rearrest for different age groups, number of times arrested, occupational status, offense group, place of birth, and bail status were observed. Covariate analysis (Maller, 1993) of non-Aboriginals (n=51,302) found with the offense of driving under the influence (DUI) was also undertaken to test the significance of differences in probabilities of rearrest for subgroups. Probabilities of rearrest were 0.47 forany offense and 0.31 for arepeat DUI for males and 0.34 forany offense and 0.20 for arepeat DUI for females. The results are discussed in the light of estimates of reimprisonment and the utility of offender risk assessment.