Metric forensic anthropology decisions: Reliability and biasability of sectioning-point-based sex estimates

Subjective decisions make human cognitive processes more susceptible to bias and error. Specifically, research indicates that additional context biases forensic anthropologists’ morphological analyses. To address whether metric analyses are also subject to bias, we conducted a pilot study in which 52 experienced osteologists measured a difficult-to-classify human femur, with or without additional contextual information. Using a metric sectioning-point sex-estimation method, participants provided a sex estimate for individual skeletal element(s) and, when given multiple elements, the combined skeletal assemblage. Control group participants (n = 24) measured only the femur. In addition to the femur, bias group participants (n = 28) either measured a female humerus and viewed a female-biasing photograph (n = 14) or measured a male humerus and viewed a male-biasing photograph (n = 14). We explored whether the experts in the different groups would differ in: (1) femoral measurements; (2) femoral sex-estimation conclusions; and (3) final sex-estimation conclusions for the skeletal assemblage. Although the femoral measurements and femoral sex estimates were comparable across groups, the overall sex estimates in the female-biased group were impacted by contextual information—differing from both the control and male-biased groups (p < 0.001). Our results demonstrate that cognitive bias can occur even in metric sex-estimation conclusions. Specifically, this occurred when the metric data and single-element sex estimates were synthesized into an overall estimate. Thus, our results suggest that metric methods are most vulnerable to bias when data are synthesized into an overall conclusion, highlighting the need for bias countermeasures and comprehensive statistical frameworks for synthesizing metric data to mitigate the effects of cognitive bias.     

What do forensic analysts consider relevant to their decision making?

In response to research demonstrating that irrelevant contextual information can bias forensic science analyses, authorities have increasingly urged laboratories to limit analysts' access to irrelevant and potentially biasing information (Dror and Cole (2010) [3]; National Academy of Sciences (2009) [18]; President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (2016) [22]; UK Forensic Science Regulator (2015) [26]). However, a great challenge in implementing this reform is determining which information is task-relevant and which is task-irrelevant. In the current study, we surveyed 183 forensic analysts to examine what they consider relevant versus irrelevant in their forensic analyses. Results revealed that analysts generally do not regard information regarding the suspect or victim as essential to their analytic tasks. However, there was significant variability among analysts within and between disciplines. Findings suggest that forensic science disciplines need to agree on what they regard as task-relevant before context management procedures can be properly implemented. The lack of consensus about what is relevant information not only leaves room for biasing information, but also reveals foundational gaps in what analysts consider crucial in forensic decision making.     

婚约法律问题研究

婚约是婚姻关系建立前的习惯性程序,经历了从罗马法、寺院法到近现代法的不同发展时期,产生的法律效力也各有不同。婚约在我国是一种重要的民事习惯,历代封建统治者都十分重视对婚约关系的调整。婚约的成立应以当事人自愿自行订立、具有完全民事行为能力、未婚及无禁止结婚的血亲关系为条件,依法成立的婚约对双方当事人及第三人均产生一定的法律效力。婚约存续期间双方互赠的财物,在婚约解除时应按不当得利予以返还。一方擅自解除婚约或因他方过错而解除婚约的,无过错方可请求损害赔偿。将婚约视为纯粹的道德问题,不仅人为地缩小了民法的调整范围,也不利于财产纠纷的解决,应通过民法典的制定予以规范。     

PREDICTING WHO REOFFENDS: THE NEGLECTED ROLE OF NEIGHBORHOOD CONTEXT IN RECIDIVISM STUDIES*

Prior studies of recidivism have focused almost exclusively on individual‐level characteristics of offenders and their offenses to explore the correlates of reoffending. Notably absent from these studies are measures reflecting the neighborhood contexts in which individuals live. The current research addresses this shortcoming. Using data on a sample of ex‐offenders in Multnomah County, Oregon (Portland and surrounding area) in conjunction with 2000 census data, we answer two questions. First, which individual‐level factors influence rates of recidivism? Second, to what extent does neighborhood socioeconomic status account for variation in the reoffending behavior of ex‐prisoners that is not explained by their individual‐level characteristics? We find that those who return to disadvantaged neighborhoods recidivate at a greater rate while those who return to resource rich or affluent communities recidivate at a lesser rate, controlling for individual‐level factors.     

When Negotiations Become Routine: Not Reinventing the Wheel While Thinking Outside the Box

In this article, we seek to apply the insights of recent research on routine to the context of repeated negotiations. To demonstrate the link between both concepts, we introduce an analytical framework in which we identify different negotiation situations in which routine can develop. We distinguish two dimensions of the negotiation process: a problem-solving dimension and a communication dimension. Our framework for analyzing the role of routine in negotiation is built around these two dimensions. We define those skills that we argue in repeated negotiations can help negotiators manage particular kinds of negotiations depending on the level and type of routinization that type of negotiation involves. Moreover, we demonstrate that our framework is inherently dynamic, which we illustrate with simplified business examples.     

Scale, technique and composition effects in the Mexican agricultural sector: the influence of NAFTA and the institutional environment

More than a decade after NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) entered into force, the environmental effects of agricultural trade liberalization in Mexico are still controversial, emerging, and not fully understood. This paper contributes to the literature that aims to explore trends in input use in the agricultural sector in Mexico during the post-NAFTA period among both commercial/industrial and traditional/rainfed farmers, and examines the influence of the national and multilateral institutional framework on these outcomes. We decompose the post-NAFTA agricultural production data into scale, technique and composition effects to estimate the impact that trade liberalization has had on the use of fertilizer and land use, two key agricultural inputs for which reliable aggregate data is available. We conclude that among commercial farmers patterns of crop type specialization and significant technological improvements have led to some declines in fertilizer use but they have been offset by growth in fertilizer use associated with growing agricultural output. Among traditional farmers increased output and specialization in land-intensive grain crops are contributing to an increase in land under cultivation and technological improvements show the potential, but not yet not the strength, to counteract these effects. We analyse the environmental institutional framework and rural development plans, observing that institutional weaknesses have, in several instances, reduced the environmental benefit of technique and composition effects. We conclude with recommendations about how the Mexican agricultural sector might reap the environmental benefits of international agricultural trade.     

专精特新企业学术型高管与企业持续创新——企业激励机制与风险承担水平的双调节效应

在逆全球化情境下,推动中小企业专精特新发展,有助于我国突破“卡脖子”技术瓶颈。文章以国家级专精特新小巨人上市公司为研究对象,实证检验了学术型高管对专精特新小巨人企业持续创新的影响机制。研究发现,学术型高管能够促进专精特新小巨人企业持续创新;完善的企业激励机制、较高的企业风险承担水平会强化学术型高管对企业持续创新的正向作用;在区域知识产权保护强度较大、学术型高管担任关键职位时,学术型高管对企业持续创新的正向影响更为明显。研究结论丰富了企业家特质研究的情境机制,并对我国引导中小企业走“专精特新”发展道路,夯实制造业发展基础及推动经济高质量发展具有指导意义。     

Putting Local Associations Into their Context. Preliminary Results from a Swiss Study of Local Associations

The paper presents results from the Swiss case of the European comparative project CID (Citizenship, Involvement, Democracy). This project examines the relationship between political institutional assets and civic and political engagement in several Western and Eastern European countries. The paper seeks to investigate how civic engagement can be generated and shaped by a given institutional and political context as well as by a peculiar community size. The central hypothesis is that the context affects the character of local participation. To verify this, the papers examines two different Swiss cantons: the German speaking Canton of Bern and the French speaking Canton of Vaud. Moreover, for each canton, four local communities of different size have been selected. This research design discusses how participation is fostered by a more open political opportunity structure (the German canton), and how this combines with the size of the community.     

警察工作压力对身心健康的影响及其对策(下)

3、压力的行为反应机制应对压力,不仅是心理反应的认知与方式、方法,生理反应的生化过程,更是在特定环境中的行为适应过程。人的本质,体现为“社会关系的总和”(马克思)。因此,行为适应是一个人健康特别是心理健康与否的重要标志。医学心理学把“心理障碍”界定为:“没有能力按照社会认为适宜的方式行为,以至其行为后果对本人或社会是不适应的。”“没有能力”,可理解分为器质性的损害和功能性的损害,也可能是两者兼而有之。生理、心理反应是内在的,行为反应是外显的。在现实生活中,当人们出现心理问题时,尽管通过主观意志努力可以在行…     

Party knowledge and candidate knowledge: constituency campaigning and voting and the 1997 British General Election

There has been a recent resurgence of interest in the electoral impact of constituency campaigns in British General Elections. Much is now known about the electoral consequences of local campaigns on parties’ constituency vote shares. Yet more remains to be discovered about the impacts of these local campaigns on voters’ knowledge of parties and candidates. Analysis of data from the 1997 British General Election demonstrates that the local campaign is associated with improved voter knowledge of who is standing for each party in a constituency, which is, in its turn, associated with an increased chance of voting for the party in the election, other things being equal. Campaign efforts at different scales, from the national to the local, have different impacts on voters’ knowledge.