TESTS OF NONLINEAR DYNAMICS IN U.S. HOMICIDE TIME SERIES,AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS*

Attempts to explain temporal patterns in U.S. homicide data usually assume that a linear process accounts for the variation. A nonlinear process is an obvious alternative, however, and reasonable arguments suggest that nonlinearity may in part underlie homicide series dynamics. This paper applies tests for nonlinearity to national time series of homicide rates and counts. The results provide relatively little evidence of nonlinear structure; instead, a linear (random walk) process appears to generate most of the change in the series. Although this supports the unstated assumptions of current theories, it also raises questions about why homicides should follow a linear time path in the first place.     

Managing commercial risks in open source software licensing

Legal context: The article reviews the commercial risk allocation clauses intypical open source licence terms and discusses their enforceabilityand implications. Key points: The enforceability of warranty disclaimers and limitation ofliability clauses in common open source licence terms is questionable,particularly in a cross-border context, and commercial licensorsshould take additional steps to protect themselves from down-streamrisks. Practical significance: Open source software presents a number of unusual commercialissues, because it is available free of charge and the providerstry to disclaim warranties and liabilities. End users and resellershave to adjust their own in- and out-licensing models to accommodatethis situation.     

重大危险源分级技术的研究

本文结合《关于开展重大危险源监督管理工作的指导意见》(安监管协调字[2004]56号文),将重大危险源分为化学品重大危险源和非化学品重大危险源;并介绍了国内关于重大危险源分级的各种方法,指出了静态分级和动态分级的优缺点,针对动态分级,提出了分级指标、分级档数和分级界限三要素,并给出了确定的方法,从而为重大危险源的具体分级及深入研究提供了理论依据。     

法治政府及模型演进

依法治国 ,是我们建设社会主义法治国家的政治方略。要建设法治国家 ,首先就要致力于构建法治政府 ,这既是法治国家的实现手段 ,又是法治国家的重要组成部分。本文从历史的角度回顾了法治政府的相关形态 ,指出了我国进行法治政府建设应该适用的模型     

乳牛产后血浆瘦素动态与亚临床酮病的相关分析

对某奶牛场16头乳牛产前10 d至产后56 d血样的瘦素、酮体、葡萄糖、脂肪水平及其动态特征和相关性进行了检测。结果表明,血浆瘦素、血酮、血脂含量在不同乳牛和不同时间点之间均有显著差异。酮体在产后14~49 d出现高峰,瘦素和血脂从产后第0 d到产后第56 d内逐渐升高。瘦素水平与血脂水平呈极显著正相关,血酮与血糖呈极显著负相关。亚临床酮病组乳牛的瘦素和血脂水平分别极显著或显著低于血酮正常组,其瘦素、血酮和血糖在试验期内的波动频率明显减少,跨度变长,瘦素在试验期内仅出现一个两端接近0、波峰不超过1.5 ng/mL的波。证实,产后乳牛瘦素、血酮、血糖含量的低频率波动变化和产后8周内血浆瘦素跨时持久的单峰动态变化与乳牛亚临床酮病的发生有关。     

The evolution of European legal integration

This article contributes to the development of theories on European integration by testing and exploring statistical models on the long-term development of legislative activity of the European Commission. Drawing on legal information gained from the European Union’s PreLex database and analyzing it with the help of statistical analyses, we map out growth patterns of EU law between 1976 and 2003. We construct time-series models and models based on non-linear regression. While the performance of models based on the traditional theoretical approaches, intergovernmentalism and neo-functionalism, is rather poor, the analysis suggests that nonlinear dynamic models might be an interesting avenue for future conceptualizations of the EU integration process. This article is based on a paper presented at the ECPR Standing Group on the European Union Second Pan-European Conference on EU Politics, “Implications of a Wider Europe: Politics, Institutions and Diversity”, 24–26 June 2004, Bologna, Italy. We would like to thank the seminar participants for useful comments.     

能动主体启发性教学观与警体教学规律的探索

警体教学是公安院校育人战略的重要组成部分。能动主体启发性教学观是全新的教学观,是针对公安院校警体课教学特点与公安应用型人才培养目标提出来的。它通过发挥教师在多主体教学中的指导作用和双主体教学中的辅导作用,培养学员的创造性实战思维。以能动主体启发性教学观为指导,从教学方法、教学环境、教学评价等方面探究警体教学规律,对于优化警体教学过程、提高警体教学质量、提升公安预备人才的综合素质,具有积极意义。     

从性别视角对性骚扰立法模式的反思

性骚扰是涉及人格尊严与人身权利的重要法律问题。综观中国有关切实保障公民人身权益的法律法规,发现尚缺少社会性别视角,亦缺少具体有效、操作性强的规定。已启动的立法举措具有立法视角与思路的突破,标志着性骚扰成为受社会与法律制约的行为,但性骚扰立法仍缺少系统科学立法模式的统筹。笔者认为应创建性骚扰立法模式,制定统一的反性骚扰法案,以预防与制止性骚扰。     

签名笔迹动态特征的理论研究

本文以签名笔迹为研究对象,提取书写过程中的动态特征,在此基础上,对签名笔迹动态特征的概念和属性进行了深入的探讨,构建了一套较为完整的签名笔迹动态特征的理论系统。     

公司治理结构模式比较及启示

文章评析当代市场经济国家在公司治理中出现的几种典型的公司治理结构模式,比较它们之间异同,进而分析我国国有企业、民营企业治理结构的现实状况,提出了我国公司治理结构的建立模式和具体的政策建议。