Key longitudinal-experimental studies in criminology

Following the tradition of Joan McCord's work, this paper reviews longitudinal-experimental studies in criminology with community samples of at least 100 persons, follow-up periods of at least 5 years, personal interviews, and measures of offending. The main advantages of such studies are in investigating both the natural history of development (including the effects of risk/protective factors and life events) and the impact of interventions on offending. This paper also reviews advantages and problems of prospective longitudinal surveys, randomized experiments, and longitudinal-experimental studies in criminology. Four key longitudinal-experimental studies were conducted by Joan McCord, Richard Tremblay, Lawrence Schweinhart and David Olds. Other studies have been conducted, or are currently under way, but no criminological study has yet been published with several years of personal data on participants both before and after an intervention.Joan McCord Award Lecture given at the American Society of Criminology, Toronto, Canada.     

Population data for Central Portugal population with NGM amplification kit

The purpose of this work was to establish frequencies and population statistic parameters for Central Portugal population using NGM amplification kit as well as carry out a comparative study with other population groups.     

Patterns and Correlates of Offender Versatility and Specialization Across a 23-Year Span for At-Risk Young Men

The authors examined patterns and correlates of offender specialization versus versatility, or more random offenses, among 206 at-risk men. Both official records and self-report data of offending from late childhood to ages 31–32 years old were used. Aggregate- and individual-level analyses indicated that the predominant offender pattern for this sample was versatility. Three correlates of offender versatility were examined (offense frequency, early onset, gang association). Aggregate-level findings consistently revealed offense frequency as a robust correlate of offender versatility, whereas individual-level findings differed among the three measures of offender versatility. The congruence of these findings with predictions from Patterson’s (1982) coercion model is discussed.     

A Longitudinal Investigation of Associations Between Boys’ Pubertal Timing and Adult Behavioral Health and Well-Being

To extend research linking pubertal timing and adolescent health outcomes, this study examines boys’ pubertal timing and subsequent interpersonal success and health behaviors in mid adulthood. Past research has shown that boys’ pubertal timing is associated with both positive and negative developmental outcomes in the short term, and so it is unclear how pubertal timing is consequential for adjustment across the long term. Data from 460 boys from the Terman Life-Cycle Study were examined over a 39-year period to relate age of pubertal onset to later marital success, career success, and adult health behaviors. Boys who reached puberty earlier than their peers achieved greater success in their careers and experienced more satisfaction in their marriages. Early-developing boys were not found to be more likely than their peers to smoke cigarettes or drink alcohol as adults. Findings are discussed in terms of the importance of pubertal timing for life-span development.Keiko Taga is a doctoral student at the Department of Psychology at University of California, Riverside. Her major research interests are social and psychological predictors of health and longevityCharlotte Markey is an Assistant Professor of Psychology at Rutgers University. She received her Ph.D. from the University of California at Riverside in 2002. Her research focuses on social and personality influences on healthHoward S. Friedman is Distinguished Professor of Psychology at the University of California, Riverside, where he directs a large project on health and longevity across the life-span. He has authored or edited ten books, with a focus on health psychology, personality, and nonverbal charisma     

Family Structure and Problem Behavior of Adolescents and Young Adults: A Growth-Curve Study

In the present longitudinal 3-wave study of 1274 adolescents and young adults, aged 12–24 at the 1st wave, it is examined whether youngsters from intact versus postdivorce families show long-term differences in internalizing and externalizing problems. Furthermore, possible differences in the development of this problem behavior between offspring from intact and postdivorce families are examined, i.e., possible differences in growth curves of internalizing and externalizing problems are investigated. Longitudinal multilevel analyses reveal long-term differences in internalizing and externalizing problems according to family structure. Adolescents and young adults growing up in postdivorce families display more internalizing and externalizing problem behavior than youngsters of intact families. The development of these 2 types of problem behavior does not differ by gender or family structure. That is, the shape of the growth curves of internalizing and externalizing problem behavior is similar for boys and girls and also for youngsters from intact and postdivorce families. Inge VanderValk is a Postdoc Researcher at the Department of Child and Adolescent Studies, Utrecht University, the Netherlands. She received her Ph.D. in 2004 from Utrecht University. Her major research interests include associations between adolescent adjustment and parental marital quality and parental divorce. Ed Spruijt is an Associate Professor at the University of Utrecht. He received his Ph.D. in 1983 from Utrecht University. His major research interests are the consequences of parental divorce and visitation arrangements on children. Martijn de Goede is an associate Professor at Utrecht University, Department of Methodology and Statistics. He received his Ph.D. in 1988 from Utrecht University. His major research interests are occupational and relational life courses of youngsters. Cora Maas is an Assistent Professor at Utrecht University, Department of Methodology and Statistics. She received her PH.D. in 1992 in Utrecht from Utrecht University. Her major interests are: multilevel analysis (theory and applications). Wim Meeus is full Professor of Adolescent Development at Utrecht University. He received his Ph.D. in 1984 from Utrecht University. His major research interests are personality, identity, and relationships in adolescence.     

On the Robustness and Validity of Groups

In response to Nagin's comment on our paper, Methodological Sensitivities to Latent Class Analysis of Long-Term Criminal Trajectories, we reconsider the robustness and validity of group-based approaches to criminal trajectories and introduce additional issues for future research. We emphasize the limitations of typological approaches and the dangers of reifying the idea of distinct offender groupings for research and policy. We also clarify misunderstandings about the use of hierarchical linear models for studying trajectories of crime. Our basic conclusion is that methods in criminology need to be more tightly linked with theory.     

Time-Varying Risk Factors for Reassault Among Batterer Program Participants

This study uses longitudinal data to identify risk markers for reassault among batterer program participants. Data are from 308 men and their partners collected at five, 3-month intervals. Time-varying situational and behavioral risk factors, as well as time-invariant individual characteristics, are examined. The most influential risk markers, in terms of relative risk and level of statistical significance, were time-varying: 2 measures of the man's drunkenness during the follow-up interval in which the reassault occurred (OR: 3.5-16.3; p > .0005). Other included time-varying batterer characteristics had no significant effect on reassault. Two significant time-invariant batterer risk factors were (1) severe psychopathology and (2) a history of non-domestic-violence arrest, both measured at intake. Results suggest that batterers' drinking behavior after program intake may provide an important and easily observed marker for risk of reassault and that prediction of reassault with individual risk factors at program intake remains problematical.     

服务型政府建设与政府间纵向关系调整

服务型政府建设对政府间纵向关系这一中国政府体制重要方面的调整和改革提出了迫切要求。中国的政府间的纵向关系在结构性要素上具有权力较为集中的特点,在体制性要素上也有一系列独特性。这样的政府间纵向关系有其优势,也有其不足。建设服务型政府对政府间纵向关系调整提出的基本要求是:使各级政府能够有效回应和满足公民日益增长的公共服务需求,实现基本公共服务均等化,有效推进行政管理改革和政府职能转变;进一步保持与提升政府间纵向关系的优势并克服其不足。     

Marital Satisfaction and Marital Discord as Risk Markers for Intimate Partner Violence: A Meta-analytic Review

A meta-analysis investigating the relationship between marital satisfaction/discord and intimate partner violence (IPV) in heterosexual relationships was conducted with 32 articles. Overall, a small-to-moderate effect size (r = −0.27) indicated a significant and negative relationship existed between marital satisfaction/discord and IPV. Moderator analyses found no differences between effect size based on construct examined (discord or satisfaction). However, the magnitudes of observed effect sizes were influenced by other moderator variables, including the use of standardized versus non-standardized measures, gender of the offender and victim, role in the violence (perpetrator versus victim), and sample type (clinical versus community). The data suggests that gender is an especially important moderator variable in understanding the relationship between marital satisfaction/discord and IPV.     

THE IMPACT OF RACIALLY INCLUSIVE SCHOOLING ON ADULT INCARCERATION RATES AMONG U.S. COHORTS OF AFRICAN AMERICANS AND WHITES SINCE 1930*

Despite the substantial body of research on the psychological and social effects of racial segregation in schools on African Americans, few studies have considered the possibility that more racially inclusive schools might reduce the risk of extremely negative adult life experiences such as incarceration. Yet such a connection is made plausible by research linking black racial isolation in schools to variables that are often associated with incarceration rates, including concentrated poverty, and low educational and occupational aspirations and attainment. In this paper, we apply methods first developed by labor economists to assess the impact of racial inclusiveness in schools on individual incarceration rates for 5‐year cohorts of African Americans and whites born since 1930. We find strong support for the conclusion that blacks educated in states where a higher proportion of their classmates were white experienced significantly lower incarceration rates as adults. Moreover, our analysis suggests that the effects of racial inclusiveness on black incarceration rates have grown stronger over time. These longitudinal effects are consistent with the argument that the educational climate of predominantly black schools has deteriorated in more recent decades.