A Note on Optimal Law Enforcement under Asymmetric Information

We show that the probability of apprehension and punishment is usually reduced in a framework with asymmetric information, leading to more offenses being committed. A positive correlation between crime and asymmetry of information in the enforcement process is established. Some suggestions concerning the efficiency of private versus public enforcement are drawn.     

论宏观犯罪模型的构建

犯罪学发展至今,仍然以定性分析为主,定量研究为辅,主要原因是缺少分析犯罪系统的理论和方法,无法建立犯罪模型。文章首先在M arkov骨架过程的基础上,提出了K-G过程的基本概念并给出相应定理,然后从社会犯罪的实际问题出发,以建立犯罪控制系统为目的,建立了宏观犯罪模型———社会治安稳定性模型,并用K-G过程研究了此模型,给出概率分布。     

DNA指纹的个体特异性和细胞稳定性研究

人类基因组的许多高度可变区域能够与小卫星探针杂交,而同时被检测出来,小卫星探针由串联重复的"核心"顺序构成.采用Southern印迹杂交获得的DNA指纹图包含多条高度可变的DNA片段杂交带,这些带主体细胞和生殖细胞中都表现出稳定性,而且安全具有个体特异性.本文用小卫星探针33.15,调查了北京地区的60名无关个体,     

Composite Machine Learning Algorithm for Material Sourcing,

This study developed a composite machine learning algorithm for attribution of materials of forensic interest (like ammonium nitrate) to original sources. k-nearest neighbor and random forest models were used for source elimination and classification, respectively, in a two-step, composite algorithm based on particle color, size/shape, and trace element concentration features. Novel approaches for simulation to supplement within-source reference features based on empirically measured multi-lot analyses, an improved hold-one-lot-out method for cross-validation, an assessment of the likelihood of the presence of a reference sample, fusion of the source probabilities from the respective classification models, and the calculation of metrics for assessing ensemble sourcing performance are described. Excellent sourcing predictions were obtained; the sourcing algorithm identified the correct source as the top choice 89% of the time, and the correct source was identified to be an average of 2.7 times more likely than the most likely incorrect source.     

Explaining non‐participation in deliberative mini‐publics

This article investigates citizens’ refusal to take part in participatory and deliberative mechanisms. An increasing number of scholars and political actors support the development of mini‐publics – that is, deliberative forums with randomly selected lay citizens. It is often argued that such innovations are a key ingredient to curing the democratic malaise of contemporary political regimes because they provide an appropriate means to achieve inclusiveness and well considered judgment. Nevertheless, real‐life experience shows that the majority of citizens refuse the invitation when they are recruited. This raises a challenging question for the development of a more inclusive democracy: Why do citizens decline to participate in mini‐publics? This article addresses this issue through a qualitative analysis of the perspectives of those who have declined to participate in three mini‐publics: the G1000, the G100 and the Climate Citizens Parliament. Drawing on in‐depth interviews, six explanatory logics of non‐participation are distinguished: concentration on the private sphere; internal political inefficacy; public meeting avoidance; conflict of schedule; political alienation; and mini‐public's lack of impact on the political system. This shows that the reluctance to take part in mini‐publics is rooted in the way individuals conceive their own roles, abilities and capacities in the public sphere, as well as in the perceived output of such democratic innovations.     

重塑程序意识——论程序法与实体法的关系

本文从法哲学的高度,通过对程序法与实体法在实践意义上的同一性、目的与手段的辩证关系以及程序法与实体法之间的现实性与可能性联系等三个方面的论述,阐明了程序法与实体法的关系及程序法的重要价值,并对程序法的概念作出了新的界定,提出程序法与实体法区别的相对性,程序正义包涵着无限的实体正义,程序法赋予实体法以现实的法律意义和现实的实体意义等观点。     

Assessing Stability and Change in Criminal Offending: A Comparison of Random Effects, Semiparametric, and Fixed Effects Modeling Strategies

An important theoretical problem for criminologists is an explanation forthe robust positive correlation between prior and future criminaloffending. Nagin and Paternoster (1991) have suggested that the correlationcould be due to time-stable population differences in the underlyingproneness to commit crimes (population heterogeneity) and/or thecriminogenic effect that crime has on social bonds, conventionalattachments, and the like (state dependence). Because of data andmeasurement limitations, the disentangling of population heterogeneityand state dependence requires that researchers control for unmeasuredpersistent heterogeneity. Frequently, random effects probit models havebeen employed, which, while user-friendly, make a strong parametricassumption that the unobserved heterogeneity in the population follows anormal distribution. Although semiparametric alternatives to the randomeffects probit model have recently appeared in the literature to avoid thisproblem, in this paper we return to reconsider the fully parametric model. Viasimulation evidence, we first show that the random effects probit modelproduces biased estimates as the departure of heterogeneity from normalitybecomes more substantial. Using the 1958 Philadelphia cohort data, we thencompare the results from a random effects probit model with a semiparametricprobit model and a fixed effects logit model that makes no assumptions aboutthe distribution of unobserved heterogeneity. We found that with this dataset all three models converged on the same substantive result—evenafter controlling for unobserved persistent heterogeneity, with models thattreat the unobserved heterogeneity very differently, prior conduct had apronounced effect on subsequent offending. These results are inconsistentwith a model that attributes all of the positive correlation between priorand future offending to differences in criminal propensity. Sinceresearchers will often be completely blind with respect to the tenabilityof the normality assumption, we conclude that different estimationstrategies should be brought to bear on the data.     

误收假币后故意使用行为的刑事责任问题初探

误收假币后故意使用的行为具有刑事可罚性,应当以使用假币罪定罪处刑。在犯罪认定时,客观要件之中的“使用”行为不应以置于流通为必要;只要能够根据基础事实予以合理推定其主观上为“明知”,就足以认定其符合本罪的主观要件。由于该行为的期待可能性较小,因此处刑时应结合我国针对误收假币后故意使用行为的立法变动情况,对于数额较大的情形原则上只判处罚金刑,而是否侵犯公私财产权这一随机客体也具有影响量刑的功能。     

误收假币后故意使用行为的刑事责任问题研究

误收假币后故意使用的行为侵犯了货币的法定地位、货币的公共信用，并可能侵犯公私财产权，因而具有刑事可罚性，应当以使用假币罪定罪处刑。在犯罪认定时，客观要件之中的“使用”行为不应以置于流通为必要；只要能够根据基础事实予以合理推定其主观上为“明知”，就足以认定其符合本罪的主观要件。由于该行为的期待可能性较小，因此处刑时应结合我国针对误收假币后故意使用行为的立法变动情况，对于数额较大的情形原则上只判处罚金刑，而是否侵犯公私财产权这一随机客体也共有影响量刑的功能。