Metric forensic anthropology decisions: Reliability and biasability of sectioning-point-based sex estimates

Subjective decisions make human cognitive processes more susceptible to bias and error. Specifically, research indicates that additional context biases forensic anthropologists’ morphological analyses. To address whether metric analyses are also subject to bias, we conducted a pilot study in which 52 experienced osteologists measured a difficult-to-classify human femur, with or without additional contextual information. Using a metric sectioning-point sex-estimation method, participants provided a sex estimate for individual skeletal element(s) and, when given multiple elements, the combined skeletal assemblage. Control group participants (n = 24) measured only the femur. In addition to the femur, bias group participants (n = 28) either measured a female humerus and viewed a female-biasing photograph (n = 14) or measured a male humerus and viewed a male-biasing photograph (n = 14). We explored whether the experts in the different groups would differ in: (1) femoral measurements; (2) femoral sex-estimation conclusions; and (3) final sex-estimation conclusions for the skeletal assemblage. Although the femoral measurements and femoral sex estimates were comparable across groups, the overall sex estimates in the female-biased group were impacted by contextual information—differing from both the control and male-biased groups (p < 0.001). Our results demonstrate that cognitive bias can occur even in metric sex-estimation conclusions. Specifically, this occurred when the metric data and single-element sex estimates were synthesized into an overall estimate. Thus, our results suggest that metric methods are most vulnerable to bias when data are synthesized into an overall conclusion, highlighting the need for bias countermeasures and comprehensive statistical frameworks for synthesizing metric data to mitigate the effects of cognitive bias.     

What do forensic analysts consider relevant to their decision making?

In response to research demonstrating that irrelevant contextual information can bias forensic science analyses, authorities have increasingly urged laboratories to limit analysts' access to irrelevant and potentially biasing information (Dror and Cole (2010) [3]; National Academy of Sciences (2009) [18]; President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (2016) [22]; UK Forensic Science Regulator (2015) [26]). However, a great challenge in implementing this reform is determining which information is task-relevant and which is task-irrelevant. In the current study, we surveyed 183 forensic analysts to examine what they consider relevant versus irrelevant in their forensic analyses. Results revealed that analysts generally do not regard information regarding the suspect or victim as essential to their analytic tasks. However, there was significant variability among analysts within and between disciplines. Findings suggest that forensic science disciplines need to agree on what they regard as task-relevant before context management procedures can be properly implemented. The lack of consensus about what is relevant information not only leaves room for biasing information, but also reveals foundational gaps in what analysts consider crucial in forensic decision making.     

汽车炸弹主动预防系统初探

如何应对汽车炸弹的恐怖袭击,是当今世界竭力研究的一个重大课题。在当前研究基础上,本文提出了一种综合应对方法——汽车炸弹主动预防系统,并对系统的组成、功用、要求、技术关键及发展方向做了一个系统的分析。通过分析,并结合当前技术实际得出结论,该系统切实可行,能完成对汽车炸弹恐怖袭击的主动预防,是一种很有研究前景的反恐系统。     

SCHOOLS AS COMMUNITIES: THE RELATIONSHIPS AMONG COMMUNAL SCHOOL ORGANIZATION,STUDENT BONDING,AND SCHOOL DISORDER*

Research has indicated that school factors such as communal school organization and student bonding are predictive of school disorder, with greater communal organization and greater student bonding leading to less delinquency and victimization. Data from a nationally representative sample of 254 public, nonalternative, secondary schools were used to examine structural equation models representing hypothesized relationships among communal school organization, student bonding, and school disorder. The hypothesis that communally organized schools would have less disorder held true for teacher victimization and student delinquency, but not for student victimization. In addition, the hypothesis that the relationship between communal school organization and school disorder would be mediated by student bonding was supported for student delinquency, but not for teacher victimization.     

Age Adjustment and Recall Bias in the Analysis of Domestic Violence Data: Methodological Improvements Through the Application of Survival Analysis Methods

This methodological paper presents the utility of survival analysis methods to provide age adjustment in the analysis of domestic violence data. These methods improve the estimation of lifetime probability of domestic violence, improve identification of patterns of first victimization over the lifespan, and provide methods of testing risk factors for first victimization while adjusting for the respondents' age. Most importantly, these methods allow a new investigation of recall bias. Results suggest that lifetime probability of abuse may have been substantially underestimated in previous studies because of problems in recall/disclosure encountered by middle-aged women.     

四川省家禽及鸟类减蛋综合征血清流行病学调查

采集四川省农村散养的鸡、鸭、鹅、鹌鹑、鸽和野外麻雀的血液，分离血清，应用微量血凝抑制（ＨＩ）试验检测减蛋综合征（ＥＤＳ－７６）病毒感染情况。阳性率为：鸡３．０１％（１３／４３２），鸭４４．８６％（４３６／９７２），鹅２８．８１％（１１９／４１３），鹌鹑３．５７％（２７／７５６），鸽１８．７５％（１８／９６），麻雀３０．５６％（１１／３６）；另外在１９８５年疫病普查时采集并保存的鸭、鹅血清中也查到了ＤＥＳ－７６抗体，阳性率分别为鸭４３．３０％（４２／９７），鹅２６．４０％（２９／１１０）。     

Stammwähler und die opportunistische Wahl parteipolitischer Programme

This article explains political radicalism by the number of voters who are biased towards a party. With little voters biased in favor of a party, this party has to rely more heavily on its programmatic distance to other parties. Because large parties – i.e.: parties with a high number of biased voters – gain votes when they move to the center of the political spectrum, parties with a lower number of voters that are biased in their favor are forced to the edges of the policy space. We draw on a computational model of political competition between four parties in a two‐dimensional policy space to investigate this relationship. We use panel corrected OLS estimates to analyze the data generated by the computer simulation. Our results substantiate the hypothesis of a negative relationship between the number of biased voters and the inclination of a party to adopt a more extreme policy stance.     

对不健康文献对未成年入犯罪诱导情况的调查

不健康文献对未成年人犯罪的影响大部分表现为间接影响。未成年人接触不健康文献的年龄段集中在 12周岁～ 16周岁 ;他们喜欢接触描写凶杀、暴力、色情等内容的不健康文献 ;所接触的不健康文献既有合法的 ,又有非法的 ;主要通过影院、录像厅等场所接触视听型不健康文献 ;他们接触不健康文献后有强烈的模仿愿望 ;加之管理者对其管理不力 ,致使其走上违法犯罪道路。     

城市化进程中的选择偏差与对策

二十一世纪是城市的世纪 ,也是我国城市化进程加快发展的世纪。著名经济学家斯蒂格利茨曾断言二十一世纪有两件大事将改变世界的面貌 :一是中国的城市化 ,一是美国的高科技。然而由于我国长期的计划经济体制和官本位等封建残余思想的影响 ,城市化的进程与历史的本来规律发生了一定的偏差。     

总体研究设计思想的展现

总体研究设计思想是美国的一位社会调查专家FloydJ.Fowler提出的关于抽样调查的一种设计思想。总体研究设计思想强调在设计调查的过程中,把抽样设计、问卷设计、实施调查访问的设计这三个方面整合到一起来,并且要与特定研究目标相结合,从整体调查的方方面面来进行总体设计。总体研究设计思想意味着一个人在设计抽样或者检验抽样数据质量时,要关注整个数据收集的全过程,而不仅仅注意研究的某一两个方面。