A method for measuring and decomposing electoral bias for the three-party case, illustrated by the British case

The measurement of bias in election results, whereby one or more parties are advantaged in the translation of votes into seats at the expense of others, is attracting increasing attention. So far, almost all of the analytical work – aimed at both identifying the extent of bias in an election result and establishing its causes – has focused on either two-party systems or on the largest two parties in multi-party systems. Building on the firm foundations of one such approach, this paper introduces an original procedure for analysing bias in three-party systems using a readily-appreciated metric for both evaluating the degree of bias and decomposing it into the various causal factors. This is illustrated using the example of the 2005 British general election and a comparison of the results from two-party and three-party analyses of six recent elections there.     

The suitability of visual taphonomic methods for digital photographs: An experimental approach with pig carcasses in a tropical climate

In the context of increased scrutiny of the methods in forensic sciences, it is essential to ensure that the approaches used in forensic taphonomy to measure decomposition and estimate the postmortem interval are underpinned by robust evidence-based data. Digital photographs are an important source of documentation in forensic taphonomic investigations but the suitability of the current approaches for photographs, rather than real-time remains, is poorly studied which can undermine accurate forensic conclusions. The present study aimed to investigate the suitability of 2D colour digital photographs for evaluating decomposition of exposed human analogues (Sus scrofa domesticus) in a tropical savanna environment (Hawaii), using two published scoring methods; Megyesi et al., 2005 and Keough et al., 2017. It was found that there were significant differences between the real-time and photograph decomposition scores when the Megyesi et al. method was used. However, the Keough et al. method applied to photographs reflected real-time decomposition more closely and thus appears more suitable to evaluate pig decomposition from 2D photographs. The findings indicate that the type of scoring method used has a significant impact on the ability to accurately evaluate the decomposition of exposed pig carcasses from photographs. It was further identified that photographic taphonomic analysis can reach high inter-observer reproducibility. These novel findings are of significant importance for the forensic sciences as they highlight the potential for high quality photograph coverage to provide useful complementary information for the forensic taphonomic investigation. New recommendations to develop robust transparent approaches adapted to photographs in forensic taphonomy are suggested based on these findings.     

A study of the intermolecular interactions of lipid components from analogue fingerprint residues

A compositionally simplified analogue of a latent fingermark was created by combining single representatives of each major component of a natural fingermark. Further modified analogues were also produced each having one component removed. The aim of this study was to investigate the intermolecular interactions that occurred within these analogue samples using Fourier Transform Infrared (FT-IR) Microspectroscopy. FT-IR microspectroscopy showed that the absence of squalene and cholesterol significantly restricted the interactions between the other organic constituents within the analogue samples. Investigating the intermolecular interactions of organic compounds within a simplified analogue solution could indicate corresponding interactions that occur within natural fingermarks. These potential interactions could go on to be the target of further investigation of latent fingermark chemistry, and ultimately contribute to a better understanding of the aging processes and degradation mechanisms that take place post-deposition.     

The biochemical alteration of soil beneath a decomposing carcass

The processes associated with cadaver decomposition in outdoor settings, particularly those that occur during the extended postmortem interval (>30 days) are poorly understood. Thus, few methods are currently available to accurately estimate the extended postmortem interval (PMI). Of these methods, a soils-based approach has the potential to address the postmortem interval between which entomology and anthropology are the most valuable. Although the validity of soil-based methods has previously been established, little work has been conducted to explain the processes that have been designated for forensic application. As a consequence, we investigated the dynamics of carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus-based compounds in soil beneath pig (Sus scrofa) cadavers (gravesoil) that were placed on the soil surface over a period of 100 days. Decomposition was assessed through the physical characteristics of the cadaver, soil pH, soil moisture content, and the concentration of total carbon, total nitrogen, soil-extractable phosphorus, and lipid-phosphorus in soil. Cadaver decomposition did not result in a significant difference in soil carbon and moisture content. However, significant (P < 0.05) increases were observed in the concentration of soil pH, total nitrogen, soil-extractable phosphorus, and lipid-phosphorus. Based on the current results, a significant increase in the concentration of gravesoil nutrients represented a maximum PMI of 43 days (lipid-P), 72 days (total nitrogen), or 100 days (soil-extractable phosphorus). This work provides further evidence that a soil-based method has the potential to act as a tool for the estimation of extended PMI.     

A survey of bacteria associated with various life stages of primary colonizers: Lucilia sericata and Phormia regina

Blow flies are common primary colonizers of carrion, play an important role in the transfer of microbes between environments, and serve as a vector for many human pathogens. While some investigation has begun regarding the bacteria associated with different life stages of blow flies, a well replicated study is currently not available for the majority of blow flies. This study investigated bacteria associated with successive life stages of blow fly species Lucilia sericata and Phormia regina. A total of 38 samples were collected from four true replicates of L. sericata and P. regina. Variable region four (V4) of 16S ribosomal DNA (16S rDNA) was amplified and sequenced on MiSeq FGx sequencing platform using universal 16S rDNA primers and dual-index sequencing strategy. Bacterial communities associated with different life stages of L. sericata and P. regina didn't differ significantly from each other. In both blow fly species, Bacilli (e.g., Lactococcus) and Gammaproteobacteria (e.g., Providencia) constituted >95% of all bacterial classes across all life stages. At the genus level, Vagococcus and Leuconostoc were present at relatively high abundances in L. sericata whereas Yersinia and Proteus were present at comparatively high abundances in P. regina. Overall, information on bacterial structures associated with various life stages of blow flies can help scientists in better understanding or management of vector-borne pathogen dispersal and in increasing the accuracy of microbial evidence based postmortem interval (PMI) prediction models.     

Can whale-fall studies inform human forensics?

Experimental knowledge of human body decomposition in the deep ocean is very limited, partly due to the logistical challenges of deep-sea research. The literature on ecological responses to the arrival of naturally sunk and implanted whale carcasses on the seafloor represents a potential source of information relevant to questions of human body survival and recovery in the deep ocean. Whale falls trigger the formation of complex, localized, and dense biological communities that have become a point of interest for marine biologists for the past 2–3 decades. Researchers have documented whale falls by whale type, size, geographic location, water depth and water chemistry, and there have been some comparative analyses of decomposition rates and faunal presence on carcasses. We undertook a review and meta-analysis of the whale-fall literature to identify and statistically model trends relevant to human forensics. Results from studies using deep-sea cameras baited with pig carcasses and simulated carrion provided further validation of noted trends. The stages of whale carcass decomposition most relevant to human forensics are those characterised by mobile scavengers that strip the soft tissues from carcasses, and to a lesser degree, other biota that degrade skeletal material. Our statistical models used the number of faunal taxa attracted to the whale carcasses as a measure of the ecological response and the potential rate of decomposition. Negative binomial models identified significant influences of carcass age and dissolved oxygen concentration on the ecological response (taxon numbers). The strongest environmental effects were identified in data from experimental studies that implanted whale carcasses across a broad range of dissolved-oxygen conditions. We propose directions for further experimental research to refine models of environmental controls on decomposition in the deep sea. Our results also highlight the potential use of publicly available global databases on environmental conditions in the deep ocean for informing body scavenging activity and thus body survival. Applying a forensic lens to whale-fall studies provides a window into an otherwise unseen world from the standpoint of human forensic taphonomy.     

A retrospective comparative study to evaluate the reliability of post-mortem interval sources in UK and US medico-legal death investigations

Post-mortem interval (PMI) information sources may be subject to varying degrees of reliability that could impact the level of confidence associated with PMI estimations in forensic taphonomy research and in the practice of medico-legal death investigation. This study aimed to assess the reliability of PMI information sources in a retrospective comparative analysis of 1813 cases of decomposition from the Allegheny County Office of the Medical Examiner in Pittsburgh, US (n = 1714), and the Crime Scene Investigation department at Southwest Forensics in the UK (n = 99). PMI information sources were subjected to a two-stage evaluation using an adapted version of the 3x5 aspects of the UK police National Intelligence Model (NIM) to determine the confidence level associated with each source. Normal distribution plots were created to show the distribution frequency of the dependent variables (decomposition stage and source evaluation) by the independent variable of PMI. The manner, location, and season of death were recorded to ascertain if these variables influenced the reliability of the PMI. A confidence matrix was then created to assess the overall reliability and provenance of each PMI information source. Reliable PMI sources (including forensic specialists, missing persons reports, and digital evidence) were used across extensive PMI ranges (1 to 2920 days in the US, and 1 to 240 days in the UK) but conferred a low incidence of use with forensic specialists providing a PMI estimation in only 35% of all homicide cases. Medium confidence PMI sources (e.g., last known social contact) accounted for the majority of UK (54%, n = 54) and US (82%, n = 1413) cases and were associated with shorter PMIs and natural causes of death. Low confidence PMI sources represented the lowest frequencies of UK and US cases and exclusively comprised PMI information from scene evidence. In 96% of all cases, only one PMI source was reported, meaning PMI source corroboration was overall very low (4%). This research has important application for studies using police reports of PMI information to validate PMI estimation models, and in the practice of medico-legal death investigation where it is recommended that i) the identified reliable PMI sources are sought ii) untested or unreliable PMI sources are substantiated with corroborating PMI information, iii) all PMI sources are reported with an associated degree of confidence that encapsulates the uncertainty of the originating source.     

Majority shareholder protection by variable qualified majority rules

In this paper, we analyze judicial review according to the German Stock Corporation Act (Aktiengesetz, §§ 243 et seqq.) and its blocking effect with the help of concepts of cooperative game theory. In particular, we suggest variable qualified majority rules as ingredients of arrangements which balance the interests of a majority shareholder and of the minority shareholders.

中国城市产业承载力的影响因素及分解研究

城市产业承载力提升对于解决城市发展面临的资源环境瓶颈、提升城市发展质量、推动城市可持续发展发挥着重要作用。基于2007-2016年280个地级市数据,利用面板模型和Shapley分解方法量化分析城市产业承载力的影响因素及其相对重要程度,结果表明:基础设施、科技创新、环境质量和就业状况均对城市产业承载力具有促进作用,而科技创新是城市产业承载力增长的主要推动因素;基础设施、环境质量和就业状况对城市产业承载力的现状和潜力指数均具有促进作用,基础设施和科技创新则对提升城市产业承载力禀赋有较高的解释度。此外,各因素对城市产业承载力的影响有显著的区域差异。