论拉丁货币同盟走向崩溃的原因

拉丁货币同盟是法国、比利时、瑞士、意大利于1865年建立的货币联盟。后来,希腊、德国、北欧的一些国家及美国也参加进来。这一货币联盟曾在19世纪的资本主义世界的金融领域产生了广泛的影响。但是由于拉丁货币联盟没有规定发行货币的共同规则,没有规定保证体系稳定所需要的黄金储备,也没有控制住信用货币的流通。除了外形、重量、货币大小外,拉丁货币联盟没有任何的货币合作机制。这就造成拉丁货币联盟危机频仍,最后终于因第一次世界大战的破坏而于1928年解体。     

中国青年志愿服务的支持体系分析

志愿服务的支持体系由支持和保障志愿行动发展的政策、智力、资金、资源等组成,包括社会环境因素和组织内部因素。中国青年志愿服务经历了单一支持体系向拓展支持体系、多元支持体系、综合支持体系变化的过程;支持体系的结构包括党政支持体系、群团支持体系、社团支持体系、公众支持体系、专业支持体系和传播支持体系等;支持体系的要素包括政策、资金、人力、品牌等。在加快社会建设、创新社会治理的背景下,青年志愿服务支持体系建设要注重统筹协调、联盟合作、专业提升和国际发展。     

The 2019 General Election in Northern Ireland: the Rise of the Centre Ground?

The experience of the 2019 general election in Northern Ireland took a very different course to that of the rest of the UK and, indeed, to the pattern of electoral politics typical of the region. Coming after almost three years with no functioning devolved government, combined with intense disagreement and uncertainty about Brexit, voters were ready to give a message to the two largest parties. Both Sinn Féin and the DUP suffered losses in the election, with the headline outcome being that unionism no longer holds the majority of seats for Northern Ireland in Westminster. More generally, there was a swing from both sides towards centre ground voting, which brought significant gains for the Alliance Party and the SDLP. This article summarises the reasons for this broad trend, focussing on the conditions and electoral pacts which brought it about. It also considers what it might mean for the prospects for Irish unification, noting that a referendum on unification will only be passed by attracting votes from those who tend to see themselves as neither unionist or nationalist.     

内战反对派武装的联盟构建与内部冲突——以叙利亚内战为例

在内战进程中,不同的反对派武装组织有时会构建起联盟共同反抗政府军,而有时则会相互袭击引发内部冲突。对于此现象的解释已是当前内战研究理论的重点。通过回顾既有研究对此问题提出的物质因素和理念因素解释,文章认为单纯的理念因素和物质因素均无法解释反对派联盟的形式与瓦解。因此,文章提出了一个将物质因素和理念因素进行整合的分析框架,分析理念因素与物质因素交互影响反对派联盟形成和内部冲突。在政府军实力较强的情况下,理念因素无法起作用,而反对派内部实力均衡与否也将使得理念因素对联盟构建产生不同的影响,并且外部支持则会加强理念在反对派联盟形成中的影响作用。文章以叙利亚内战作为阐释性案例,采取案例内比较的方式,对提出的逻辑进行分析。     

The Birth and Rebirth of the Liberal Democrats

This article tells the story of the Liberal Democrats from the final days of the Liberal/SDP Alliance to the general election of 1992. Drawing on the author's roles as an MP and as chair of the party's communications operations, it examines the factors that contributed to the party's troubled birth in 1988, and gives an insider's view on how the party survived to grow in the years after 1990. Key issues include the branding of the party and the development of its policy of paying for improvements to education through increasing income tax. It also lays stress on the importance of the party's activist base and its central campaigns expertise in not only surviving in local elections, but also in securing key by-election victories.     

日本国家安全保障会议探析

国家安全决策机制是整个国家政权体系的基本构成,是国家权力安排的重要组织表现,也是公民安全诉求的主要凭借。以1947年美国成立国家安全委员会为起点,世界各主要国家无不结合本国实际,积极探索"国安委"模式的建构。安倍内阁为突破战后体制束缚,谋求使日本成为正常国家,在经济、政治、军事上全面出击,其标志性事件就是日本国家安全保障会议的革新。它以国家安全保障局为机构依托,辅之《国家安全保障会议设置法》与《特定秘密保护法》,借力美国"亚太再平衡"战略,为日本安保体制带来战术和战略层面的双重改善,是安倍集权外向扩张的先兆,将给中日关系、东亚局势产生诸多不确定性因素。     

日本“政治大国”走向与自主防卫

进入20世纪80年代以后,作为经济强国的日本已经不再满足于“经济大国政治小国”的地位,历届内阁开始要求与经济大国地位相适应的政治大国地位。日本政府在寻求实现政治大国目标的过程中,主要选择了以军事领域作为突破口,以成为军事大国带动政治大国目标的实现。具体体现在强化日美同盟、建立和完善有事法制、保持自主、高效的自卫力量与积极参与联合国维和行动四个方面。     

野田内阁加入TPP的战略意图探析

TPP是一种旨在实现贸易、投资及人员往来等全面自由化的高水平自由贸易协定。野田内阁意图通过TPP提升日本企业的国际竞争力,推动国内农业的结构性改革,重振日本经济;在对外关系上,则欲借此修复巩固日美同盟,配合美国牵制中国的战略布局,并在未来亚太经济一体化的进程中占据有利位置。基于上述战略意图,尽管遭到日本国内长期依赖财政补贴及贸易保护的农业部门和希望继续维持现有医疗保障体系的医师会等团体的坚决反对,以致日本面临政治分裂的风险,野田仍作出了参加TPP谈判的政治决断。     

The Changing Paradigm of Pacific Regional Politics

Abstract

Analyses of recent developments in Pacific regional politics have emphasized the role of ideas and new thinking about how the Pacific should engage in global and regional diplomacy (the so-called ‘paradigm shift’). These ideas include the call for regional self-determination, the claim that Pacific island states need to engage more assertively in global diplomacy, the call for a ‘genuine Pacific voice’ to be heard in global forums, recognition that a ‘one region approach’ need not be the best approach, the reconfiguring of diplomatic alliances to leverage Pacific island positions better in global forums, and embracing non-state actors as equal partners. The importance of this paradigm shift is that it challenges many prevailing stereotypes and assumptions about Pacific islands diplomacy. It recognizes and facilitates choices and alternatives. It emphasizes the imperative of being proactive and of taking responsibility for the challenges facing the Pacific islands; and being creative in finding solutions. This is a fundamentally empowering transformation. But in order to understand where this might lead, it is necessary to explore where this transformation has so far played out. Case studies at the national, regional and global levels give insights into the impact and potential of the new Pacific diplomacy.     

联盟体系与伙伴关系——论美国亚太再平衡战略的安全支点

美国亚太再平衡战略,强调在经济、安全领域维持美国的主导地位。要实现这一目标,联盟体系及伙伴关系是美国意欲借助的重要支撑,在安全领域这种表现尤为明显。在此种战略意图支配下,美国强化了与传统盟友的关系,并极力拓展新的伙伴关系,借助联盟体系、伙伴关系这两个安全支点的作用,美国力图构建其领导下的亚太安全结构。