火灾发生起数的区间估计和假设检验

在分析火灾发生概率规律性的基础上,可在一定的置信水平上,对火灾发生的起数进行区间估计和假设检验。通过区间估计将未来的火灾形势预测为一个置信区间,通过假设检验可排除随机干扰,确定火灾发生起数的变化规律,这些信息都能为消防规划的制定提供科学的数量依据。     

The culture of risk regulation: Responses to environmental disasters

Disasters challenge the equilibrium of regulatory regimes and make policy shifts more likely. Using an institutional theory of cultural biases and the concept of cultural “surprise”, this article analyses the direction and intensity of media argumentation in respect of policy shifts. Instead of assuming a demand for greater State intervention after dramatic focusing events, as suggested by other theoretical frames, cultural theory opens a variety of options that range from embracing regulatory responses from different cultural biases to the radicalization of current, but failing, instruments. The analysis of media reaction to the environmental disasters caused by the oil spills of Exxon Valdez (United States), Erika (France) and Prestige (Spain) shows that the demand for more hierarchy does not monopolize the overall argumentation. The change demanded often implies a radicalization of a particular prevalent view where the associated institutional setting is failing its supporters.     

长江下游水域治安管理现状及对策

当前长江下游水域治安问题突出,侵财性案件较多;非法采砂的行为屡禁不绝;群体性事件和水上治安灾害事故突出。在治安管理过程中面临着执法依据不全、管理体制不顺、水上警务保障不足的困境。     

Continuity and catastrophe: business continuity management and the security of financial operations

This paper discusses business continuity management (BCM) and its role in contemporary financial institutions. BCM is a nascent disaster preparedness and recovery strategy that seeks to protect vital business operations from disruptions. The paper traces contemporary BCM back to Cold War continuity of government planning, and shows how BCM came to comprehend security as continuity of processes rather than integrity of goods. BCM is prominent in finance because it promises to mitigate operational risks, and it focuses on risks stemming from interdependencies in financial infrastructures. By engaging with two events that triggered continuity management in banks, Hurricane Sandy in New York City and the ‘Blockupy’ demonstrations in Frankfurt, the paper highlights how BCM is challenged by large-scale disasters as well as acts of public criticism.     

The Public Management of Risk: The Case for Deliberating among Worldviews

This article argues that the public management of risk faces inherent "wicked issue" problems which are further accentuated in the context of the contemporary regulatory state. It is suggested that in order to overcome these limitations and inevitable trade-offs, there needs to be a more conscientious effort in setting out distinct components of any public management of risk, which should be considered and discussed through the lens of distinct worldviews contrasting interpretations and solutions, as well as potential "black-spots." It is only by acknowledging limitations of any one strategy and by considering plural solutions that there is less likelihood of disappointment when dealing with crises and disasters.     

我国小学生社会灾难技能影响因素分析——基于ordered probit模型的估计

目前学界对我国小学生灾难教育缺乏专项研究。基于全国性问卷调研数据,利用orderedprobit回归模型对我国小学生社会灾难技能影响因素进行微观实证分析,分析了个人、家庭、学校、社会四个层面中的11种因素的影响作用。研究发现,学校教育、家庭教育、社区教育、媒体教育、自我教育五种因素对我国小学生社会灾难技能的掌握呈显著正向影响;小学生社会灾难技能存在性别和城乡差异。我国应构建政府主导下的学校、家庭、社区、媒体、自我五种教育协同作用的小学生灾难教育体系;依据小学生的性别及城乡差异,开展针对性教育。     

Law Enforcement Lessons Learned from Hurricane Katrina

Major disasters represent infrequent events that often require response organizations to vicariously learn from the experiences of others in order to improve their operations. A primary mechanism for such knowledge diffusion is the different practitioner and empirical journals for the organizational fields that comprise disaster response. A review of the literature for the law enforcement field, however, reveals that little attention is given to how these organizations manage actual disasters. In particular, the presentation of organizational experiences, whether through case studies or other methodologies, is very limited in the practitioner and empirical literature of this field. This represents a considerable problem for improvements of disaster response operations given that law enforcement agencies represent a key component in such efforts. The research presented in this article is an effort to fill this knowledge gap and thereby facilitate organizational learning to improve future law enforcement disaster response activities. The authors traveled to Mississippi and Louisiana after Hurricane Katrina to examine the response efforts of state and local law enforcement agencies to the storm. The findings from this research are reported here in a lessons‐learned format to inform law enforcement disaster response policy.     

谈信息技术在消防产品监督管理工作中的应用

火灾是一种可防可控但无法消灭的灾害之一，目前在全世界呈上升趋势。有效防控火灾的方法之一就是使用更加有效的消防产品。加强消防产品的监管是提高产品有效率、使其在火灾防控中切实发挥作用的必要措施。将信息技术引入消防产品管理．不仅可以提高工作效率、减少人为干扰．同时可以解决长期困扰消防机构的在消防产品监管当中底数不清、情况不明的问题。     

震后恢复与重建中法律关系变更问题研究

汶川地震发生后，在灾区恢复重建活动中遇到的一个很重要问题就是因为法律关系变更导致了大量的法律纠纷和社会矛盾，因此，如何在制度上建立一套规范有序的程序来解决地震灾害所破坏的各种财产关系、人际关系成为法学界和灾区所关注的重要问题。震后恢复重建活动要高度关注权力与权力关系变更、权力与权利关系变更以及权利与权利关系变更三类法律关系变更问题。由于我国目前法律法规关于法律关系变更制度的规定不系统、不规范，致使最高人民法院只有通过司法解释的方式才能解决本来应当由立法机关加以解决的震后灾区各种法律关系变更所引发的法律问题。因此，要通过制定《紧急状态法》、《灾害对策基本法》和《灾害保险法》等等法律法规的立法途径，来进一步规范和完善法律关系变更制度，为震后恢复重建工作提供更加充分和有力的法律保障。