Rethinking sensitivity interdependence: Assessing the trade,financial, and monetary links between states

International relations scholars do not adequately conceptualize or measure economic interdependence, a crucial variable in studies of trade and conflict, economic sanctions, and globalization. Most studies conflate vulnerability with sensitivity and confuse interconnectedness with genuine interdependence by relying on inadequate indices of interdependence such as unadjusted trade as a percentage of GDP. Such measures fail to capture the true cost to states of a termination of normal trading relations and ignore completely interstate financial and monetary ties. In this article, we offer a new method, the Contextual Sensitivity Estimator (CSE), for gauging sensitivity interdependence. The CSE addresses existing shortcomings in several noteworthy ways. First, it takes into account the strategic and domestic economic context of external economic linkages. Second, it assesses the composition of trade and the uses of trade proceeds. Third, it provides a detailed conceptualization of critical channels of sensitivity like foreign investment and exchange rate ties. Using Arab‐Canadian economic relations in 1979, after a threatened boycott of Canada, as a case study, we show that our CSE yields a more accurate assessment of sensitivity interdependence than traditional measures.     

The changing political economy of Taiwan‐Southeast Asia relations

This paper examines the possibility that the United States could ‘capture’ the Asia‐Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum and use it to impose America's economic agenda on the region. It discusses Washington's ability to shape the choices of APEC's East Asian members at APEC negotiations to reflect US interests through employing its military, economic, cultural, and ideological resources as instruments of leverage and influence. While interdependence constrains Washington's use of military and/or economic leverage to influence the choices of APEC's East Asian members, the complex bargaining and consensual decision‐making features of APEC further prevent Washington from imposing its agenda on APEC. On the other hand, Washington's capture of APEC could be facilitated if East Asian policy‐making elites were socialized through the APEC process to accept American norms. This would tend to lead to preference convergence since the values of both the US and East Asia would coincide. The analysis suggests, however, that American norms are unlikely to prevail within APEC in the near to medium term primarily because APEC's East Asian members consider East Asian norms to be superior. American culture and especially ideology are not sufficiently attractive to East Asian elites and are thus unable to be used as instruments of influence. For these reasons, the paper concludes that the United States will find it difficult to impose its economic agenda on the region through APEC.     

全球化时代与中国的理论创新

冷战结束后,人类迎来了以知识经济取代资源经济、全球市场取代垄断市场、帝国主义与依附时代终结为特征的全球化时代。在全球化的历史趋势下、建设有中国特色社会主义的发展要求我们必须结合社会主义的实践,重读经典,坚决反对肢解马克思主义的“断裂论”,始终以创新精神对待马克思主义,积极推进马克思主义与时俱进。     

见招拆招：“相互依赖武器化”态势下的反武器化

“相互依赖武器化”是发起国以经济相互依赖为工具来损害对象国的现象。相对应,反武器化就是对象国规避或减少武器化发起国的损害。按照权力的不同来源,相互依赖武器化可以分为基于供给型权力、通道型权力和市场型权力三种类型,分别依托于发起国对自然资源或高科技产品的供应能力、对战略通道与关键基础设施的所有权以及国内大规模市场的消费能力。作为对象国对发起国的战略回应,反武器化相应具有不同类型的策略。面对基于供给型权力的武器化行为,对象国需要通过自给自足或进口多元化等措施提升本国供应链的安全性,降低对发起国自然资源或高科技产品的依赖;面对基于通道性权力的武器化行为,对象国需要改变交通运输方式,调整运输与物流路线,加强基础设施建设,减少对发起国通道的依赖;面对基于市场型权力的武器化行为,对象国需要开拓新的市场,维持在国际市场上的营收能力,降低对发起国市场的依赖。从韩国应对日本断供危机到卡塔尔化解断交危机再到俄罗斯反制西方能源制裁,各个案例反映了反武器化的不同策略。     

Trade Interdependence and the Use of Force: Do Issues Matter?

In this project, we investigate the relationship between the use of military force and trade interdependence, suggesting that the influence of trade on militarized conflict varies based on the issue under dispute. For some issues, trade is likely to attenuate the chances that states escalate a dispute to the use of military force, while for others trade can intensify disputes so that military conflict is more likely. Specifically, we hypothesize that greater trade interdependence decreases the probability of military conflict over realpolitik issues like territory. On the other hand, greater trade interdependence increases the probability that states use military force when the issue under dispute concerns the regime, policies, and conditions in the target. To test our hypotheses, we employ new data on dyadic uses of force from the International Military Intervention data set that records the initiator’s reason(s) for using force against the target. The statistical tests support our hypotheses; trade decreases the use of force against a target for territorial and military/diplomatic reasons, which is consistent with arguments from the liberal paradigm. However, trade interdependence increases the use of force for humanitarian and economic reasons as well as to affect the regime or policy of the target. Thus, our study improves upon current research about the relationship between economic interdependence and foreign policy by specifying a conditional relationship based on the issues under contention.     

中美复合战略稳定关系：建构 依据、基本框架与发展趋势

中美战略稳定关系已经超越经典战略稳定性,向着复合战略稳定关系的方向演化。建构中美复合战略稳定关系是稳定两国关系的客观需要。彼此战略竞争加剧给中美之间非均势核威慑基础上的战略稳定性带来负面影响。在美国提高核力量于国家安全战略中的地位、将核武器重新作为霸权工具的背景下,中美战略稳定性面临挑战。特朗普政府对中国挑起贸易争端,经贸关系在中美关系中的“稳定器”和“压舱石”作用减弱,建构中美复合战略稳定关系的必要性凸显。中美之间经济深度相互依存,在维护国际体系稳定方面具有共同利益,这为建构中美复合战略稳定关系奠定了坚实的基础。中美复合战略稳定关系框架包括建立在非均势核威慑基础上的战略稳定性、双方经济的深度相互依存、战略互信、双方对话交流与合作机制等四根支柱,其中以非均势核威慑基础上的战略稳定性为核心支柱。虽然中美战略互信存在短板,但随着中国战略核力量的进步、中美经济相互依存的继续维持和双方对话交流与合作机制的成熟和完善,中美复合战略稳定关系将不断巩固。     

和平与经济相互依赖关系的理论考察

本系统梳理了经济相互依赖和平论的历史沿革和不同观点,论证了经济相互依赖既包含有促进和平的因素,也包含有诱发冲突的可能;指出全球经济联系的增强,各国之间在经济上的交流与合作,在一定意义上有利于和平因素的发展,但具体分析经济相互依赖的性质、条件和其他因素,则会发现经济相互依赖远远不能成为国际和平的保障。     

Ubuntu as public policy in South Africa: A conceptual framework

ABSTRACT

Beginning with an overview of the origin and core elements of ubuntu, this article focuses on the idea that the analytic process required to illustrate how a social theory and a political ideal can be extracted and developed out of their constitutive elements has not been given the rigorous attention it deserves. Without such rigour it is extremely difficult to recommend a coherent conceptual framework for political action. It then suggests guidelines for policy development and implementation, confident that nuanced variations in the various understandings of ubuntu are not so fundamental as to prevent trend-data analysis and generalisation.