试论乡村社会控制体系建设中基层政府的责任

保持良性乡村社会秩序，维护农村社会稳定，无论是对农村发展还是对整个国家顺利转型，无疑都具有特别的重要性。     

银行业完全开放后我国商业银行与外资银行的竞争策略博弈分析

运用动态的先来后到博弈模型、赫特林模型以及在共同竞争中的合作博弈分析我国商业银行在外资银行的全面进入的条件下应采用的竞争策略,可以得出如下结论：中外银行之间相互合作才能达到双方与社会效率最优;我国商业银行应该采取提高自己产品的差异性、合理网点布局、加强资产结构和产品结构的调整等策略;只要贴现率δ足够大,中外资银行之间的合作关系是可以维持的。     

the Westin Beijing Financial Street Welcomes New Italian Chef domenico Cicchetti

正Domenico Cicchetti,the new Head Chef of Prego Italian Restaurant at The Westin Beijing Financial Street,has massive culinary experience in international five-star hotels,having served successively in the Grand Hyatt Sao Paulo,Brazil,and one of the     

DOES THE TIME CAUSE THE CRIME? AN EXAMINATION OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TIME SERVED AND REOFFENDING IN THE NETHERLANDS*

This work uses a sample of Dutch offenders, serving an average of 6.7 months of confinement, to examine the relationship between time served in prison and future criminality. To overcome the selection issues inherent in this examination, this article introduces a new method to the criminological literature that relies on a generalization of the propensity score to control for observed differences in offenders sentenced to different periods of confinement. On the whole, very little evidence of a relationship between time served and future offending was found. In particular, 3‐year reconviction rate and the proportion of offenders reconvicted in the next 3 years do not seem to depend on incarceration length. Although a relationship between time served and future sentence length was found, the evidence is modest.     

Estimating Mean Length of Stay in Prison: Methods and Applications

This paper examines various approaches to studying the mean length of stay in prison. The literature contains a wide range of estimates of this quantity. The discrepancies that appear in these estimates and in the conclusions reached from them have been the subject of several reviews. We build upon that work, using the life table as the gold standard, to demonstrate the inaccuracy of common measures such as the ratio of the population size to the annual number of entrances or the mean length of time served by those exiting in a particular period. This demonstration is conducted in two parts. One part uses model populations with constant growth rates; the second part relies upon simulated prison populations with time-varying rates of entrance and exit. In addition, we introduce two new indirect measures that are more accurate than several existing indirect measures and that are relatively easy to use. The new measures are based on the entrance rate or the exit rate and adjust for the growth rate of the prison population.

The effect of time served on recidivism: An interdisciplinary theory

The research reported in this paper is concerned with the functional relation between the probability that an individual offender will recidivate and the time that the offender has served in prison as a consequence of the offense. Theory suggests that time served affects recidivism through both specific deterrent and social bonding effects. The former is hypothesized to produce an inverse relation between recidivism and time served; the latter, a direct relation. The paper reviews the literature concerning these two theoretical relations. The review provides the basis for the establishment of a multiequation model whose principal result is to suggest that, more than likely, the recidivism/time served relation is a U-shaped function. The empirical model used to evaluate the hypothesis that the function is U-shaped uses the occurrence of a new arrest as its dependent variable. The model is estimated using OLS and LOGIT procedures. The data used for estimation relate to 1425 prisoners released from the North Carolina prison system in 1980. Recidivistic outcomes are measured at the end of the first and second years subsequent to their release. The research is unique in that it represents the first effort to synthesize the economist's specific deterrence model with the sociologist's social bonding model. The theory provides an explanation for the failure of past empirical work to establish a relation between time served and recidivism. The research is also unique in its a priori assumption of a U-shaped behavioral relation and its attempt to measure that particular relation. The data support the hypothesis that time served affects postprison recidivism rates and that the direction of the effect varies by offense class.