From discourse to policy: US policy communities’ perceptions of and approaches to climate change and security

ABSTRACT

Increasingly, a diverse set of policy communities, including those with defence, development and environmental mandates, frame climate change as a security threat. Most often this discursive formation labels climate change as a ‘threat multiplier’. This framing, however, is vague, linear and leaves many questions unanswered regarding how institutions can develop and implement policy that addresses the joint challenges of climate change, conflict and security. Utilising a mixed-methods approach, and grounding data collection in US policy communities, this article examines how policy actors and institutions integrate climate-security discourses into policy processes. The objective of this research is to provide direct insight into how the discourses and technical understandings of climate-security transition into policy priorities and implementation realities. This research identified three common approaches to climate-security: (1) A challenge of adaptation and resilience; (2) A potent political argument; and (3) An issue of limited importance and feasibility. These approaches, however, are inconsistent across sectors and within organisations, suggesting a lack of cohesion and considerable challenges in identifying and responding to climate change as a ‘threat multiplier’.     

COMMUNITY ACCOUNTABILITY,MINORITY THREAT,AND POLICE BRUTALITY: AN EXAMINATION OF CIVIL RIGHTS CRIMINAL COMPLAINTS*

A growing body of evidence shows that minorities are disproportionately the targets of police brutality, but important theoretical questions about the causes of that inequity remain unanswered. One promising line of research involves structural‐level analyses of the incidence of police brutality complaints; however, existing studies do not incorporate variables from alternative theoretical explanations. Drawing on the community accountability hypothesis and the threat hypothesis, we tested the predictions of two prominent structural‐level explanations of police brutality in a study of civil rights criminal complaints. The study included cities of 150,000+ population (n = 114). The findings reveal that two community accountability variables—ratio percent Hispanic citizens to percent Hispanic police officers and the presence of citizen review—were related positively to police brutality complaints, partially supporting that perspective. Two threat hypothesis measures of threatening people—percent black and percent Hispanic (in the Southwest)—were related positively to complaints, as predicted. The relative degree of support for the two hypotheses is assessed.     

中国面临的安全威胁及战略选择新思考

在冷战结束以后,世界上的安全威胁发生了很大变化。不仅冲突和战争的类型发生变化,而且其动因也有了变化。中国面临的主要安全威胁已经不再是某一现实或潜在的国家,套用冷战思维就会错判。更重要的是,在看待和应对威胁上应当具有符合新的时代条件的思考。     

匿名威胁爆炸案的新特点及其现场处置对策

近些年北京发生匿名威胁爆炸案件显现猛升势头,并出现一些新的特点.对这类案件的现场处置应遵循"信、严、快、判、细、敢"六字方针.     

俄罗斯空天政策调整:实践与创新

近年来,世界主要国家以资金和技术为支持,以空天一体、军民融合为主要逻辑,从科技实力、人才素质培养、军队组织结构以及国际合作等多维度加强国家空天实力.在此背景下,太空军事化和太空资源争夺进程加剧,各国军用与民用空天技术竞争烈度均不断提高,美俄主导的空天领域二元权力格局被打破.鉴于上述形势,乌克兰危机以来俄罗斯政府参考世界主要国家空天战略的发展趋势,结合自身实际情况,对国家空天政策进行了一系列调整.此番调整在延续政策传统的同时,优化俄罗斯国家航天集团内部的权责关系和管理结构,注重国家实战能力和创新能力培育,展示了俄罗斯以硬实力为基础维护国家安全,以软实力为补充促进国家空天实力可持续发展和跃升的战略目标与实施逻辑.     

美国国家安全情报传递机制论析

作为世界上情报体系最为发达的国家,美国国家安全情报机制一直以来备受各方关注。九一一事件催生了美国情报体系全面而彻底的改革。经过十多年的努力,美国情报界实现了从机构林立的分散体系到由国家情报总监办公室领导的有机整体的重大转型。从总体机制来看,美国情报界现已形成情报机构一体化与任务一体化的双轮驱动体系,其情报传递网络不仅涵盖领导、协调、执行三个层级间的纵向传送,而且包括不同情报机构之间的横向协调,基本实现了情报整合与信息共享。美国国家情报总监办公室成为名副其实的美国情报界统领,其下设的反恐、反扩散、反情报和网络情报中心构成了美国国家安全情报分类传递机制的四大支柱。通过比较,四大分类传递机制中最为成熟的是反恐中心,其次是反情报与安全中心,再次是网络威胁情报整合中心,最后是反扩散中心。由于各类情报机制自身发展程度的不同,其改革过程中所面临的挑战也不一样。美国国家安全情报传递机制的改革“瓶颈”既有发展不足导致的结构性困境,也有外部安全环境变化带来的挑战。此外,特朗普政府上台后的一系列政策举措使得美国国家安全情报体系的发展方向呈现出新的态势。     

Vietnam: riding the Chinese tide

Vietnam's perception of China is nuanced and complex, a mixture of challenge and opportunity. Given its geographic proximity and overwhelming power, China represents a permanent strategic challenge Vietnam cannot escape. However, the two countries are partners in the defence of socialist ideals and communist rule. These circumstances have clearly shaped Vietnam's China policy, which is a mixture of cooperation and struggle. Vietnam's strategy is not about confronting China directly but finding a way to live with and benefit from its power.     

Foreign threat and political party change: Russia and changes in party manifestos

How do political parties react to foreign security threats? There has been very little attention paid in the literature generally to how parties react to international events, particularly how parties react to foreign policy threats. Using data from the Comparative Manifesto Project, we examine how political parties in countries in Europe have reacted to Russian actions in terms of their emphasis on security issues. Based upon our analysis of the manifestoes from 331 parties in 36 countries we find that, generally, interstate threats have no significant effect on the military position adopted by political parties, although these effects vary by party type and by the type of threat. Russian based threats appear to be associated with the Far Left becoming more dovish (which is consistent with what would be expected by the literature) and the Far Right becoming significantly less hawkish.     

How Does Violence Threaten the State? Four Narratives on Piracy

Violence characterized by similar actions, actor motivations, group structures, or level of damage still poses qualitatively distinct genera of threats to states. For instance, “terrorism” can threaten a particular state, be used by a state, or threaten the entire state system. Building on the threat construction literature, this study argues that threat is best understood through narratives on the relationship between violence and the boundary-producing practices that construct the state. Four ideal-typical basic narratives on this relationship are produced—entrant, resource, revisionist, and criminal. Each narrative is then demonstrated by looking at how it was used in a historical case of piracy. The action (piracy as raiding at sea) is held constant while the threat in each varies with the narrative. Understanding how threat is narratively constructed can help us to understand particular historical episodes of violence and state responses to them.     

Effects of Economic and Symbolic Threat Appeals in Right-Wing Populist Advertising on Anti-Immigrant Attitudes: The Impact of Textual and Visual Appeals

Right-wing populist parties portray immigrants as economic or symbolic threats in their political advertisements by constructing a moral divide between the “good” ordinary people and “bad” immigrants. Yet, it remains unclear how these different threat appeals contribute to the formation of anti-immigrant attitudes among citizens and what role visual elements play in producing these effects. A survey-experiment with a quota sample of 471 participants reveals that, overall, symbolic threat appeals exert stronger effects on anti-immigrant attitudes than economic ones. When presented via text alone, only symbolic—not economic—threat appeals increased anti-immigrant attitudes via the activation of heuristic processing such as the reliance on negative stereotypes or feelings of anxiety, in particular among lower-educated citizens. When visuals were present, both types of threat appeals enhanced anti-immigrant attitudes among citizens across all education levels based on heuristic processing. Additionally, high image-text congruency induced cognitive argument approval resulting in higher anti-immigrant attitudes.