中国和平崛起的可能、困难和对策

“和平崛起”是中国改革开放以来内政外交大政方针的总结提炼 ,也是中国新世纪发展战略的精辟概括。对国家利益和安全观念的新认识 ,对中国特色社会主义内涵的深刻把握 ,对多极化的正确理解 ,是和平崛起论的基本依据。和平崛起的实现 ,受国内外许多不利因素的制约 ,必须正确应对各种复杂的威胁和挑战。坚持和平崛起 ,我们要坚持经济建设与国防建设的统一 ,坚持主权的坚定性和主权实现形式的灵活性 ,并要特别处理好与大国的关系。     

Party knowledge and candidate knowledge: constituency campaigning and voting and the 1997 British General Election

There has been a recent resurgence of interest in the electoral impact of constituency campaigns in British General Elections. Much is now known about the electoral consequences of local campaigns on parties’ constituency vote shares. Yet more remains to be discovered about the impacts of these local campaigns on voters’ knowledge of parties and candidates. Analysis of data from the 1997 British General Election demonstrates that the local campaign is associated with improved voter knowledge of who is standing for each party in a constituency, which is, in its turn, associated with an increased chance of voting for the party in the election, other things being equal. Campaign efforts at different scales, from the national to the local, have different impacts on voters’ knowledge.     

Why Do Experienced Challengers Do Better than Amateurs?

Politically experienced challengers are more successful in seeking political office than amateurs. The relationship is found so regularly that political experience has become the standard ex ante indicator of challenger quality in studies of American elections. Despite this, little work has investigated why experienced challengers are so successful. Many scholars attribute the relationship to inherent differences between experienced challengers and amateurs: experienced challengers have stronger electoral skills and greater access to material resources. I argue that these differences play a role, but an indirect one. Rather, experienced challengers are lead by both their resource advantage and the high amount of risk they are exposed to in seeking office to run in races in which their party has a good chance of winning. Thus, the direct cause of the experienced challengers’ success is self-selection into winnable races. Empirical analysis supports the self-selection model over a model in which resources directly lead to success.

Quality challenger emergence under the top-two primary: Comparing one-party and two-party general election contests

Prior research finds that the emergence of a quality challenger is one of the most important factors predicting whether incumbents will be vulnerable. Reformers in California and Washington envisioned that the top-two primary reform would increase electoral competition by allowing for general election contests that feature two same-party candidates in safe districts. In this research note, I investigate the degree to which these expectations have been fulfilled by looking at the prevalence of quality challengers in U.S. House contests. I compare one-party and two-party general election contests, finding that incumbents are significantly more likely to face a quality challenger from the same party than from the opposite party, all else equal. In contrast, when both states used traditional primaries prior to reform, incumbents were no more likely to face a quality challenger in the primary election than in the general election. Findings reveal a key way in which the top-two primary may fulfill reformers’ expectations and complement our understanding of how electoral institutions condition challenger entry decisions.     

The relative weight of character traits in political candidate evaluations: Warmth is more important than competence,leadership and integrity

Decades of research has found that voters’ electoral decisions to a significant degree are affected by character evaluations of candidates. Yet it remains unresolved which specific candidate traits voters find most important. In political science it is often argued that competence-related traits are most influential, whereas work in social psychology suggests that warmth-related traits are more influential. Here we test which character trait is the more influential in global candidate evaluations and vote choice using observational data from the ANES 1984–2008 and an original experiment conducted on a representative sample of English partisan respondents. Across the two studies we find that warmth is more influential than competence, leadership and integrity. Importantly, results hold across a wide range of alternative specifications and robustness analyses. We conclude by discussing theoretical and practical implications of the results.     

论犯罪学的诞生及其标志

犯罪学是一门在西方国家产生的学科,这一点已经得到普遍接受。但是,对于犯罪学的诞生及其标志等问题,人们有不同的看法。要认识和确定犯罪学的诞生,必须确立犯罪学诞生的参照点,这样的参照点有三个：犯罪中心性、综合性、非规范性。根据这些参照点进行判断,把贝卡里亚是看成犯罪学的创始人或者＂犯罪学之父＂,把龙勃罗梭看成是现代犯罪学的创始人或者＂现代犯罪学之父＂,把他们的代表作出版的年代分别看成是犯罪学诞生和现代犯罪学诞生的年代与标志,是比较合理的。     

L'impact du mode de scrutin sur l'élection des femmes à l'Assemblée fédérale Suisse (1995‐2003)

Cet article analyse l'impact du système électoral sur l'élection des femmes à l'Assemblée fédérale (1995‐2003). La littérature a souvent mis l'accent sur l'importance du système proportionnel en vue de l'amélioration de la représentation des femmes au Parlement en se concentrant souvent uniquement sur le taux de femmes élues. Dans cet article, nous argumentons qu'il est nécessaire d'étudier les trajectoires des candidats et de prendre en compte à la fois les candidats hommes et femmes. Nous montrons que l'effet women‐friendly du système proportionnel au Conseil national semble davantage jouer au niveau de la stratégie de désignation des candidats et des candidates que lors de leur élection, et ce particulièrement pour les partis politiques du centre et de droite.     

合理性与合目的性：社会主义核心价值体系价值生成的始点

任何价值活动都要遵循一定的逻辑规则。在价值活动运行轨迹中，价值活动的任何结果都是价值活动逻辑始点的一种规律性的延伸。探求价值生成的逻辑始点对认识价值运动规律以及促进价值实现有着重要的意义。社会主义核心价值体系价值生成既是基于价值合理性上的科学活动，又是基于价值合目的性上的意义活动。从价值生成的源泉上讲，把价值合理性与合目的性的统一作为价值活动的逻辑起点，是社会主义核心价值体系成为中国主流意识形态本质表征的核心缘由。     

Pretty faces,marginal races: Predicting election outcomes using trait assessments of British parliamentary candidates

The conventional wisdom on Western European politics leads us to believe that all the “action” lies with parties, because the unified parliamentary delegations in Western Europe draw voters' attention to parties' policies and images. Though British elections take place under a single member district plurality system, British parties, like their continental counterparts, are highly centralised and feature disciplined parliamentary delegations. Despite the strong ties between British candidates and their parties, we demonstrate that perceptions of candidates' personal attributes can be used to predict general election outcomes. Using a computer-based survey where subjects are asked to evaluate real British candidates using only rapidly determined first impressions of facial images, we successfully predict outcomes from the 2010 general election. Moreover, we find that perceptions of candidates' relative attractiveness are particularly useful for predicting outcomes in marginal constituencies.     

山西票号形成的经济学分析

山西票号的产生是商品生产和商品交换的结果 ,是资本主义萌芽的产物 ,是产业分化和产业形成的最终结果。正是基于这样的判断 ,文章分别从资源禀赋、文化禀赋、技术状况和制度环境四个角度阐述了山西票号形成的原因