TESTS OF NONLINEAR DYNAMICS IN U.S. HOMICIDE TIME SERIES,AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS*

Attempts to explain temporal patterns in U.S. homicide data usually assume that a linear process accounts for the variation. A nonlinear process is an obvious alternative, however, and reasonable arguments suggest that nonlinearity may in part underlie homicide series dynamics. This paper applies tests for nonlinearity to national time series of homicide rates and counts. The results provide relatively little evidence of nonlinear structure; instead, a linear (random walk) process appears to generate most of the change in the series. Although this supports the unstated assumptions of current theories, it also raises questions about why homicides should follow a linear time path in the first place.     

Managing commercial risks in open source software licensing

Legal context: The article reviews the commercial risk allocation clauses intypical open source licence terms and discusses their enforceabilityand implications. Key points: The enforceability of warranty disclaimers and limitation ofliability clauses in common open source licence terms is questionable,particularly in a cross-border context, and commercial licensorsshould take additional steps to protect themselves from down-streamrisks. Practical significance: Open source software presents a number of unusual commercialissues, because it is available free of charge and the providerstry to disclaim warranties and liabilities. End users and resellershave to adjust their own in- and out-licensing models to accommodatethis situation.     

鸡IFN-γ重组鸡痘病毒对鸡传染性腔上囊炎MB43弱毒疫苗免疫鸡免疫应答的影响

将重组鸡痘病毒(rFPV-IFN-γ)与IBD MB43弱毒疫苗联合接种SPF鸡,研究重组鸡IFN-γ对IBD疫苗免疫效果的影响.结果显示,rFPV-IFN-γ和MB43弱毒疫苗联合免疫组(MB43+rFPV-IFN-γ)及rIFN-γ和MB43弱毒疫苗联合免疫组(MB43+rIFN-γ)在免疫后第2周即可检出ELISA抗体,比MB43疫苗单独免疫组早1周.用IBDV Gx株攻击后,MB43+rFPV-IFN-γ组和MB43+rIFN-γ组免疫鸡的脾只有个别淋巴细胞核浓缩、核崩解,少数滤泡萎缩变性坏死;胸腺损伤程度轻于MB43疫苗单独免疫组和非免疫对照组.免疫后1周,3个免疫组外周血CD8+T淋巴细胞含量均显著高于非免疫对照组,CD4+T淋巴细胞含量变化不明显;攻毒后第2周,3个疫苗免疫组CD4+、CD8+T淋巴细胞含量均显著升高,各组之间CD4+、CD8+T淋巴细胞含量无明显差异.证实,rFPV-IFN-γ和rIFN-γ可加强疫苗的细胞免疫和体液免疫应答.     

法治政府及模型演进

依法治国 ,是我们建设社会主义法治国家的政治方略。要建设法治国家 ,首先就要致力于构建法治政府 ,这既是法治国家的实现手段 ,又是法治国家的重要组成部分。本文从历史的角度回顾了法治政府的相关形态 ,指出了我国进行法治政府建设应该适用的模型     

牛分枝杆菌esat-6和mpb70-mpb83基因DNA疫苗的免疫效果

用PCR技术和重叠延伸剪接技术获得牛分枝杆菌esat-6基因和mpb70-mpb83融合基因,连接真核表达载体pcDNA3.1(+),构建了重组质粒pCE6和pC70-83-E6。分4组免疫小鼠:pCE6组、pC70-83-E6组、pcDNA3.1(+)和PBS对照组,采用间接ELISA法检测免疫小鼠血清特异性抗体水平,MTT法检测免疫小鼠脾淋巴细胞增殖情况和IFN-γ分泌情况。结果表明,2重组质粒免疫组小鼠的血清抗体水平持续上升,而2对照组始终维持在较低水平,且pC70-83-E6组小鼠的抗体水平高于pCE6组。经PPD刺激后,pCE6组和pC70-83-E6组小鼠的SI值与2对照组均差异显著(P<0.05),2重组质粒免疫组间差异不显著(P>0.05);2重组质粒免疫小鼠脾细胞产生的IFN-γ均显著高于2对照组(P<0.05),且pC70-83-E6组明显高于其他3组(P<0.05)。证实本试验构建的2种牛分枝杆菌DNA疫苗可有效诱导实验动物产生体液免疫和细胞免疫应答。     

The evolution of European legal integration

This article contributes to the development of theories on European integration by testing and exploring statistical models on the long-term development of legislative activity of the European Commission. Drawing on legal information gained from the European Union’s PreLex database and analyzing it with the help of statistical analyses, we map out growth patterns of EU law between 1976 and 2003. We construct time-series models and models based on non-linear regression. While the performance of models based on the traditional theoretical approaches, intergovernmentalism and neo-functionalism, is rather poor, the analysis suggests that nonlinear dynamic models might be an interesting avenue for future conceptualizations of the EU integration process. This article is based on a paper presented at the ECPR Standing Group on the European Union Second Pan-European Conference on EU Politics, “Implications of a Wider Europe: Politics, Institutions and Diversity”, 24–26 June 2004, Bologna, Italy. We would like to thank the seminar participants for useful comments.     

从性别视角对性骚扰立法模式的反思

性骚扰是涉及人格尊严与人身权利的重要法律问题。综观中国有关切实保障公民人身权益的法律法规,发现尚缺少社会性别视角,亦缺少具体有效、操作性强的规定。已启动的立法举措具有立法视角与思路的突破,标志着性骚扰成为受社会与法律制约的行为,但性骚扰立法仍缺少系统科学立法模式的统筹。笔者认为应创建性骚扰立法模式,制定统一的反性骚扰法案,以预防与制止性骚扰。     

关于我国网络信息安全应急的立法构想

随着网络信息技术的高速发展及其广泛应用,网络安全问题日益突出,网络紧急事件的不断增多亟待立法加以规范。通过对网络信息安全应急立法的价值定位即安全价值、效率价值和发展价值的研究,从我国立法现状及其存在的缺陷出发,结合国外有关立法经验,提出我国网络信息安全应急的立法构想。     

公司治理结构模式比较及启示

文章评析当代市场经济国家在公司治理中出现的几种典型的公司治理结构模式,比较它们之间异同,进而分析我国国有企业、民营企业治理结构的现实状况,提出了我国公司治理结构的建立模式和具体的政策建议。     

旅游资源核心优势的形成及整合模式--以云南旅游资源开发为例

由于国际旅游市场日益一体化 ,旅游资源及产品的市场竞争替代关系逐渐成为各个国家、地区在旅游业发展和旅游产品市场定位上需要考虑的首要因素。明确各地旅游资源在市场上最具竞争力的旅游资源 ,并通过整合 ,形成带动当地旅游业发展的“核心优势” ,是旅游规划、开发和管理者应注意的问题。