A Leadership Selection Index for multi-ballot political party conventions in Canada

Eugene McGregor (Journal of Politics 35, 459–478, 1973) recognized a regularity in multi-ballot leadership conventions in the United States. He hypothesized that the change in absolute votes between the first and the second ballot could be used to forecast the eventual winner of a leadership race. When the McGregor model is applied to the Canadian multi-ballot conventions the prediction rate is only 57 per cent. This paper seeks first to discuss the qualitative similarities found between these Canadian conventions and then use this as a basis to develop and to apply a model that extends on McGregor's work. The developed model is called the Leadership Selection Index (LSI). We find that the winner of most Canadian multi-ballot conventions (86%) could be forecasted after the second ballot by using the LSI method of analysis. Based on the evidence from the literature and a survey of Canadian political conventions, we develop a hypothesis of ‘two critical conjunctures' for multi-ballot leadership conventions. This hypothesis provides a suitable theoretical framework to interpret the performance of our empirical model.     

Assessing Recidivism Risk Across Female Pathways to Crime

This research empirically examines the role of police in promoting collective efficacy and in particular, whether higher levels of police legitimacy are associated with more neighborhood collective efficacy. The research is conducted in the developing nation of Trinidad and Tobago—providing important evidence about the generalizability of the antecedents and effects of legitimacy outside of industrialized nations. The results support a potential role for police in promoting collective efficacy, but the mechanism for doing so is not legal institution legitimacy. Instead, the research identifies a relationship between quality routine police services, levels of police misconduct, and collective efficacy. In Trinidad, the amount and nature of interactions with police appear to play an important part in residents’ and neighborhood‐level assessments about police services and misbehavior.