Development and Consequences of Referendum Campaigns in Switzerland, 1981-1999

Since the early 1990s, new forms of referendum campaigns have emerged in the Swiss political arena. In this paper, we examine how referendum campaigns have transformed in Switzerland, focusing on a number of features: their intensity, duration and inclusiveness (i.e., the variety of actors involved). These features are assumed to change in the long run in response to societal changes and in the short run as a function of variations in elite support. We further argue that public knowledge of ballot issues depends on the characteristics of campaigns. To formally test our hypotheses, we draw on advertisement campaigns in six major Swiss newspapers in the four weeks preceding each ballot from 1981 to 1999 and develop a structural equation model. We indeed find that the duration of referendum campaigns has increased over time, while their inclusiveness has decreased. Most importantly, we find that pub­lic knowledge is strongly related to the characteristics of campaigns.     

‘You Can't Always Get What You Want’: The effects of winning and losing in a referendum on citizens' referendum support

In Western democracies, many citizens support the use of referendums. However, as referendums create satisfying outcomes for citizens with majority views, they could generate ambivalent feelings among voters for the minority option. Little is known about the effects of winning or losing a referendum for citizens' referendum support. This article analyses multiple-wave survey data from five referendums in Bavaria (Germany), Finland and the Netherlands. The findings show that losers' referendum support decreases in nearly all cases, but there is very limited evidence for an increase of winners' referendum support. Nevertheless, the results clearly indicate a winner-loser gap, suggesting that referendums have relatively more positive effects for winners' than for losers' referendum support. As such, this article extends previous findings of the non-stability of referendum support. As the legitimacy of democratic institutions depends upon losers' consent, these findings have important implications for the democratic potential of referendums.     

The Australian Republic Referendum, 1999

The 1999 Australian republic referendum was intended to finalise the nation-building process begun in the mid-nineteenth century and to exploit growing national consciousness in the wake of post-World War II cosmopolitan immigration and the 1988 bicentenary. Despite strong republican support recorded by opinion polls and a broadly favourable media climate the proposal to institute a republic was defeated. The article summarises the campaign and explores some of the reasons that have been advanced, including the part played by the prime minister, for its outcome; it concludes that 'the model' might have been a contributory factor, but probably not the sole explanation. A re-run is unlikely before the election of a sympathetic, probably Labor, government. The episode illustrates the immensity of the difficulty facing republicans in Britain where similarly favourable conditions are inconceivable in the foreseeable future.     

日本国宪法的60年与宪法修改问题

二战之后制定的日本国宪法一直存在着被强加宪法论与自主制定宪法论的争论。保守派政治家出于现实政治需要，一直围绕宪法第9条主张修改宪法，并促成了国民投票法案的通过和教育基本法的修改。宪法修改应该使宪法的基本原理与现实发展相契合并有利于宪法的发展，而绝不能悖逆于宪法原理，弱化宪法的存在意义。战后的日本政治史可以说是“宪法固定化”的过程。要不要修改宪法，对于哪些条款进行怎样的修改，应该由国民来做决定。     

The house size effect and the referendum paradox in U.S. presidential elections

Barthélémy et al. (2014), extending the work of Neubauer and Zeitlin (2003), show that some U.S. presidential elections are subject to a ‘House size effect’ in that the winner of the election, i.e., the candidate who wins a majority of electoral votes, depends on the size of the House of Representatives. The conditions for the effect relate to the number of ‘Senate’ versus ‘House’ electoral votes won by each candidate, but the relationship is not straightforward due to ‘locally chaotic’ effects in the apportionment of House seats among the states as House size changes. Clearly a Presidential election that is subject to the House size effect exhibits the referendum paradox, i.e., the electoral vote winner is the popular vote loser, for some House sizes but not for others.     

A Dive into Deep Constitutional Waters: Article 50, the Prerogative and Parliament

This article analyses the Article 50 TEU debate and the argument that for the UK Government to trigger the formal withdrawal process without explicit parliamentary authorisation would be unlawful, because it would inevitably result in the removal of rights enjoyed under EU law and the frustration of the purpose of the statutes giving those rights domestic effect. After a brief survey of Article 50, this article argues first of all that the power to trigger Article 50 remains within the prerogative, contesting Robert Craig's argument in this issue that it is now a statutory power. It then suggests a number of arguments as to why the frustration principle may be of only doubtful application in this case, and in doing so it re‐examines one of the key authorities prayed in aid of it ‐ the Fire Brigades Union case.     

Access to party positions and preference formation: a field experiment

Abstract: Surveys are sometimes used to assess preferences towards policy issues that are remote from experience and that have never been publicly discussed. How do these preferences of isolated survey respondents compare with preferences expressed by voters who have access to advice from competing political parties? I address this question by conducting a field experiment with a sample of the general public in which I experimentally control the subjects’ access to the actual positions of competing parties and interest groups on specific novel policy propositions. Access to party positions decreased approval of the proposed environmental policy among right‐wing voters by over fifty percent, and this effect was similar for different educational groups. When voters had access to party positions, their policy preferences were more consistent with their general political orientation. I conclude by discussing implications of these results for the debate about voter competence and for preference elicitation using surveys.     

宪政之下的直接民主——基于德国公民投票制度理论与实践之反思

德国法理论认为,公民投票是人民直接参与国家权力运作的一种形式,对其制度的设计,应更多地考虑其权力的属性。德国对公民投票制度的引入非常谨慎,在联邦层次基本上否定了公民直接参与国家权力运作的可能;在州和地方层次的公民投票的范围受到较为严格的限制。与此同时,公民投票还要受到司法机关的司法审查。     

The Kurdistan Referendum Movement: Political Opportunity Structures and National Identity

This article examines the lack of mass mobilization by Iraqi Kurds to establish an independent Kurdistan. It argues that while the outcome of an unofficial January 2005 referendum – in which 98 per cent of Kurds supported independence – was a clear expression of their will, the political opportunity structures within which the Kurdistan Referendum Movement operates are closed to the formation of a mass-based social movement. Utilizing data from a survey of Kurdish elites and activists, as well as follow-up interviews, this analysis provides insights into the future of democracy in Iraq and the value of political opportunity theory in understanding mass mobilization.     

Referendums on Independence, 1860–2011

There have been more than 50 independence referendums since the middle of the 19th Century when Texas, Virginia and Tennessee—albeit unsuccessfully—voted to leave the USA. A handful of plebiscites were held in each decade after 1945, but most independence referendums were held after the break‐down of communism. Most have resulted in majorities for independence. However, such plebiscites have been rare in countries with established systems of democratic government and the results may not be a fair reflection of the views of the voters. When referendums have been held in democratic countries, they have often resulted in a no‐vote (though Montenegro is an exception to the rule). Referendums have on a few occasions resulted in the exacerbation of ethnic conflict, such as in Bosnia‐Herzegovina and in East Timor. But generally speaking referendums are not correlated with civil war; indeed, war resulted in only 13 percent of the cases.