The Influence of Future Certainty and Contextual Factors on Delinquent Behavior and School Adjustment Among African American Adolescents

This study examined the ability of future certainty—an individual's perception of future stability, operationalized as the likelihood of certain life outcomes–to explain variance in delinquency and school adjustment, while controlling for economic, neighborhood, and family factors, among a cross-sectional sample of 1422 male and 1562 female African American adolescents drawn from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health). Three kinds of future certainty were examined: future life certainty (e.g., life expectancy), marriage certainty, and college certainty. In hierarchical multiple regression analyses, future certainty and family functioning were stronger predictors than economic and neighborhood variables: neighborhood disorganization and family socioeconomic status. Future life certainty and expectations of attending college were stronger predictors of delinquency among males than females. Marriage certainty was the weakest predictor of the three certainty variables.     

论法律的确定性之演变

法律以确定性作为自身追求的目标和表现形式。法律的确定性首先是其价值的确定性 ,其次是法律的形式理性。在不同的历史时期 ,公、私法在价值、形式理性上的确定性是不同的。自近代以来 ,公、私法在确定性上实现了一致。     

An economic analysis of the post World War II decline in the Japanese crime rate

Since the end of World War II there has been a dramatic decrease in reported Japanese crime. Adult arrest rates have fallen steadily since the early 1950s and juvenile arrest rates have fallen since the early 1960s. An economic analysis of crime predicts that crime rates depend upon returns to crime relative to returns in legal pursuits and the certainty and severity of punishment. Regression analysis is used to test this theory using Japanese data. The empirical results indicate that the economic model does not outperform alternative naive models. However, the results are consistent with the hypothesis that increases in returns to legitimate work diminish both adult and juvenile crime. Unemployment affects some adult crimes but has little impact on juvenile crime. The share of the population in poverty has no significant impact on either type of crime. Increases in the certainty of punishment deters adult crime but there is little evidence that increases in either the certainty or the severity of punishment deter juvenile crime. There is weak evidence to support the hypothesis that increases in the severity of adult punishments deter crime.     

论宪法视野下的空白罪状

空白罪状作为我国一项重要的刑事立法技术,对维护刑法的安定性具有重要意义。从宪法学的角度审视,在立法实践中空白罪状与宪法原则存在诸多抵触之处,如：空白罪状的高度开放性特征有悖于法律明确性原则;空白罪状中参见的规范繁多、效力位阶不一,有可能与法律保留原则相左。除此之外,由于空白罪状参见的规范效力等级较低,容易导致立法权向行政权＂妥协＂之尴尬局面,这在一定程度上与以控制国家权力和保障公民权利为价值取向的宪政、法治国家原则相背离。     

Rethinking the one-stop-shop mechanism: Legal certainty and legitimate expectation

This paper aims to contribute to the discussion concerning the one-stop-shop mechanism proposed in the General Data Protection Regulation (hereinafter “GDPR”). The choice of regulation as the instrument to legislate on data protection is already an unmistakable indication that unification and simplification (together with respect of data subjects' interests) shall be the guide for every legal discussion on the matter. The one-stop-shop mechanism (hereinafter “OSS”) clearly reflects the unification and simplification which the reform aims for. We believe that OSS is logically connected with the idea of one Data Protection Authority (hereinafter “DPA”) with an exclusive jurisdiction and that this can only mean that, given one controller, no other DPA can be a competent authority.² In other words, OSS implies a single and comprehensive competent authority of a given controller. In our analysis we argue that such architecture: a) works well with the “consistency mechanism”; b) provides guarantees to data subjects for a clear allocation of powers (legal certainty); and c) is not at odds with the complaint lodging procedure. Our position on fundamental questions is as follows. What is the perimeter of competence of the DPA in charge? We believe that it should have enforcement power on every issue of the controller, including issuing the fines. How to reconcile such dominant role of one DPA with the principle of co-operation among DPAs? We do not consider co-operation at odds with the rule that decisions are taken by just one single authority. Finally, we share some suggestions on how to make the jurisdiction allocation mechanism (the main establishment criterion) more straightforward.     

Criminal thinking as a moderator of the perceived certainty–offending relationship: age variations

ABSTRACT

The purpose of this study was to determine whether the perceived certainty of punishment and general criminal thinking interact and whether the effect varies as a function of age. Data from all 1354 members (1170 males, 184 females) of the Pathways to Desistance study were used to test whether perceived certainty, general criminal thinking, and their interaction predicted subsequent offending during late adolescence (16–18 years of age) and emerging adulthood (20–22 years of age). The results showed that while perceived certainty and general criminal thinking failed to interact at age 17, general criminal thinking moderated the effect of perceived certainty at age 21. During emerging adulthood, offending was more common and varied in young adults with low certainty perceptions and high criminal thinking than it was in emerging adults with high criminal thinking and high certainty perceptions or low criminal thinking and either high or low certainty perceptions.     

The Moderating Effect of Criminal Thinking on Certainty of Apprehension in Decisions to Engage in Antisocial Behavior: Replication and Extension

This study explored whether the rational (certainty of punishment) and nonrational (criminal thinking) aspects of antisocial decision‐making interact. A convenience sample of 319 undergraduates (106 men, 213 women) completed a measure of criminal thinking and responded to three fictional vignettes (i.e., cheating on a final examination in a class they were in jeopardy of failing, stealing $50 off a table in a dorm room, and selling marijuana for a friend) at three different levels of risk or certainty of apprehension (50%, 10%, and 1%). Results indicated that participants reported that they would be more likely to engage in antisocial behavior when the certainty of getting caught was low and the level of proactive (P) or reactive (R) criminal thinking was high. An interaction between certainty and criminal thinking was also observed in which the gap between lower and higher criminal thinking respondents grew as the probability of getting caught fell.     

ON AMBIGUITY IN PERCEPTIONS OF RISK:IMPLICATIONS FOR CRIMINAL DECISION MAKING AND DETERRENCE*

Deterrence theorists and researchers have argued that the critical dimension of sanction certainty is its level—increasing the certainty of punishment from a lower to a higher level will inhibit criminal conduct. However, the true certainty of punishment is rarely known with much precision. Both Sherman (1990) and Nagin (1998) have suggested that ambiguity about the level of punishment certainty is itself consequential in the decision to commit or refrain from crime. Here, we investigate this proposition. We find some evidence that individuals are “ambiguity averse” for decisions involving losses such as criminal punishments. This finding means that a more ambiguous perceived certainty of punishment is a greater deterrent of some crimes than a nominally equivalent but less ambiguous one. However, this effect depends on how large an individual's risk certainty perception is initially. That is, we find evidence for “boundary effects” (Casey and Scholz, 1991a, 1991b) in which this effect holds for lower probabilities but reverses for higher ones. For higher detection probabilities, individuals become “ambiguity seeking” such that a less ambiguous detection probability has more deterrent value than a nominally equivalent but more ambiguous detection probability. Results are presented from two distinct, but complementary, analysis samples and empirical approaches. These samples include a survey to college students with several hypothetical choice problems and data from the Pathways to Desistance study, a longitudinal investigation of serious adolescent offenders transitioning from adolescence to young adulthood.     

法律的确定性：不仅是一种信仰

法的确定性问题长期众说纷纭。，当代法理学犬师德沃金针对哈特的司法栽量理论而提出包括疑难案件在内的任何案件中都存在一个“唯一正解”，因而受到了代表法律不确定性观点的批判，而更有力的挑战则可能来自当代的“不可公度”理论，但各家的学说实际上乃立足于不同的底盘。法律的确定性意味着法律的稳定性与可预测性，这是法治的客观要求，但是现实社会中的法律始终存在着不确定性。将不确定性引入法学理论，开拓了确定性法学理论研究的范围，把法学理论研究引进到一个更高、更广、更新的境界．     

论法律的模糊性及其确定性追求

法律的模糊性是由语言的局限性、认识的局限性、社会的多变性和复杂性、主体能力的差异性和立法的技术性决定的。法律解释是走近法律确定性的途径,实现法律解释的有效性是判断法律确定性的形式标准。同时提高适法者素质,保证法官独立,也是行之有效的举措。