What do forensic analysts consider relevant to their decision making?

In response to research demonstrating that irrelevant contextual information can bias forensic science analyses, authorities have increasingly urged laboratories to limit analysts' access to irrelevant and potentially biasing information (Dror and Cole (2010) [3]; National Academy of Sciences (2009) [18]; President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (2016) [22]; UK Forensic Science Regulator (2015) [26]). However, a great challenge in implementing this reform is determining which information is task-relevant and which is task-irrelevant. In the current study, we surveyed 183 forensic analysts to examine what they consider relevant versus irrelevant in their forensic analyses. Results revealed that analysts generally do not regard information regarding the suspect or victim as essential to their analytic tasks. However, there was significant variability among analysts within and between disciplines. Findings suggest that forensic science disciplines need to agree on what they regard as task-relevant before context management procedures can be properly implemented. The lack of consensus about what is relevant information not only leaves room for biasing information, but also reveals foundational gaps in what analysts consider crucial in forensic decision making.     

婚约法律问题研究

婚约是婚姻关系建立前的习惯性程序,经历了从罗马法、寺院法到近现代法的不同发展时期,产生的法律效力也各有不同。婚约在我国是一种重要的民事习惯,历代封建统治者都十分重视对婚约关系的调整。婚约的成立应以当事人自愿自行订立、具有完全民事行为能力、未婚及无禁止结婚的血亲关系为条件,依法成立的婚约对双方当事人及第三人均产生一定的法律效力。婚约存续期间双方互赠的财物,在婚约解除时应按不当得利予以返还。一方擅自解除婚约或因他方过错而解除婚约的,无过错方可请求损害赔偿。将婚约视为纯粹的道德问题,不仅人为地缩小了民法的调整范围,也不利于财产纠纷的解决,应通过民法典的制定予以规范。     

Scale, technique and composition effects in the Mexican agricultural sector: the influence of NAFTA and the institutional environment

More than a decade after NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) entered into force, the environmental effects of agricultural trade liberalization in Mexico are still controversial, emerging, and not fully understood. This paper contributes to the literature that aims to explore trends in input use in the agricultural sector in Mexico during the post-NAFTA period among both commercial/industrial and traditional/rainfed farmers, and examines the influence of the national and multilateral institutional framework on these outcomes. We decompose the post-NAFTA agricultural production data into scale, technique and composition effects to estimate the impact that trade liberalization has had on the use of fertilizer and land use, two key agricultural inputs for which reliable aggregate data is available. We conclude that among commercial farmers patterns of crop type specialization and significant technological improvements have led to some declines in fertilizer use but they have been offset by growth in fertilizer use associated with growing agricultural output. Among traditional farmers increased output and specialization in land-intensive grain crops are contributing to an increase in land under cultivation and technological improvements show the potential, but not yet not the strength, to counteract these effects. We analyse the environmental institutional framework and rural development plans, observing that institutional weaknesses have, in several instances, reduced the environmental benefit of technique and composition effects. We conclude with recommendations about how the Mexican agricultural sector might reap the environmental benefits of international agricultural trade.     

警察工作压力对身心健康的影响及其对策(下)

3、压力的行为反应机制应对压力,不仅是心理反应的认知与方式、方法,生理反应的生化过程,更是在特定环境中的行为适应过程。人的本质,体现为“社会关系的总和”(马克思)。因此,行为适应是一个人健康特别是心理健康与否的重要标志。医学心理学把“心理障碍”界定为:“没有能力按照社会认为适宜的方式行为,以至其行为后果对本人或社会是不适应的。”“没有能力”,可理解分为器质性的损害和功能性的损害,也可能是两者兼而有之。生理、心理反应是内在的,行为反应是外显的。在现实生活中,当人们出现心理问题时,尽管通过主观意志努力可以在行…     

Party knowledge and candidate knowledge: constituency campaigning and voting and the 1997 British General Election

There has been a recent resurgence of interest in the electoral impact of constituency campaigns in British General Elections. Much is now known about the electoral consequences of local campaigns on parties’ constituency vote shares. Yet more remains to be discovered about the impacts of these local campaigns on voters’ knowledge of parties and candidates. Analysis of data from the 1997 British General Election demonstrates that the local campaign is associated with improved voter knowledge of who is standing for each party in a constituency, which is, in its turn, associated with an increased chance of voting for the party in the election, other things being equal. Campaign efforts at different scales, from the national to the local, have different impacts on voters’ knowledge.     

被保险人故意犯罪致保险事故发生的法律后果--从公共政策的角度分析

保险领域中,公共政策要求“一个人不能从自己的犯罪中获利”,但须区分“一个人不能从他人的犯罪中获利”之情形。被保险人故意犯罪致保险事故发生,应视保险目的与功能而异其法律后果:若被保险人因预谋犯罪而直接谋求保险金,保险人当然免责;若被保险人在投保二年后故意犯罪致保险事故发生,则保险人虽不负给付保险金之责,但应退还保险单的现金价值;若故意犯罪并非保险事故发生的直接原因,保险人不能当然免责。     

俄罗斯卢布汇率安排的经济效应分析

俄罗斯转型时期的宏观经济波动与汇率制度安排之间存在着密切的关系.本文在评述新兴市场经济国家汇率制度选择困境和概述俄罗斯汇率制度演变的基础上,从汇率与通货膨胀、汇率与对外贸易、汇率与资本流入、汇率与外债规模结构变动等方面分析了汇率制度安排及汇率变动的宏观经济效应,并简要总结了俄罗斯的实践对中国的启示.     

How mass media attract political elites’ attention

Political agenda‐setting research has shown that policy makers are responsive vis‐à‐vis media priorities. However, the mechanisms behind this effect have remained understudied so far. In particular, agenda‐setting scholars have difficulties determining to what extent politicians react to media coverage purely because of the information it contains (information effect), and to what extent the effect is driven not by what the media say but by the fact that certain information is in the media (media channel effect), which is valued for its own sake – for instance, because media coverage is considered to be a reflection of public opinion. By means of a survey‐embedded experiment with Belgian, Canadian and Israeli political elites (N = 410), this study tests whether the mere fact that an issue is covered by the news media causes politicians to pay attention to this issue. It shows that a piece of information gets more attention from politicians when it comes via the media rather than an identical piece of information coming via a personal e‐mail. This effect occurs largely across the board: it is not dependent on individual politician characteristics.     

Symposium on “The nationalization of electoral politics: Frontiers of research”

This editorial introduces the theme of the symposium which addresses the most recent advances in the field of the nationalization of electoral politics. After a decade of an increasing number of contribution in this field, the symposium takes stock of the diversity of applications of nationalization studies, the progress in data collection, and its innovative methods in designs including it as both a dependent and independent variable and analyzing it both for legislative and presidential elections. The editorial reviews the growth and diversification of the literature over time and illustrates in what directions it has evolved mapping out an increasingly rich and complex theory. It links the articles of the symposium to this evolution of the literature and discusses their innovative character.     

Intra-Campaign Changes in Voting Preferences: The Impact of Media and Party Communication

An increasing number of citizens change and adapt their party preferences during the electoral campaign. We analyze which short-term factors explain intra-campaign changes in voting preferences, focusing on the visibility and tone of news media reporting and party canvassing. Our analyses rely on an integrative data approach, linking data from media content analysis to public opinion data. This enables us to investigate the relative impact of news media reporting as well as party communication. Inherently, we overcome previously identified methodological problems in the study of communication effects on voting behavior. Our findings reveal that campaigns matter: Especially interpersonal party canvassing increases voters’ likelihood to change their voting preferences in favor of the respective party, whereas media effects are limited to quality news outlets and depend on individual voters’ party ambivalence.