浅谈中国电视传媒业未来发展趋势

改革开放的20年间,中国传媒业的改革取得了显著的成就,但还面临不少危机,如集团化改革难以推进,专业化频道与公司化运做举步维艰,过分依赖广告造成广告压力巨大,市场化要求下求生存,旧有人事制度限制人才发展等。为了适应经济全球化和我国经济社会发展的需求,必须采取有效措施,加大力度,对我国电视传媒业实施进一步的改革:逐步实现跨媒体、跨行业、跨地域的多元化经营;改变单一的广告盈利模式,推进电视频道专业化进程;适应市场需求,逐步实施电视产业企业化经营等。     

TESTS OF NONLINEAR DYNAMICS IN U.S. HOMICIDE TIME SERIES,AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS*

Attempts to explain temporal patterns in U.S. homicide data usually assume that a linear process accounts for the variation. A nonlinear process is an obvious alternative, however, and reasonable arguments suggest that nonlinearity may in part underlie homicide series dynamics. This paper applies tests for nonlinearity to national time series of homicide rates and counts. The results provide relatively little evidence of nonlinear structure; instead, a linear (random walk) process appears to generate most of the change in the series. Although this supports the unstated assumptions of current theories, it also raises questions about why homicides should follow a linear time path in the first place.     

云南河口瑶族社会发展态势分析

新中国成立以来 ,云南河口瑶族地区在政治、经济、文化等方面有了明显变化。在政治方面 ,传统政治权威的淡化 ,国家政治权威逐渐被接受 ,反映了河口瑶族向民主政治进程迈进了一大步 ;在经济方面 ,河口瑶人打破固定土地的自然经济桎 ,接受了商品经济方式 ,保证了他们富强的经济前景 ;在文化方面 ,他们依然重视传统文化 ,但也开始逐渐接受优秀的外来文明 ,这为他们将来的文化繁荣提供了前提     

Developmental trends of delinquent attitudes and behaviors: replications and synthesis across domains, time, and samples

Inconsistent findings of attitude-behavior relations are commonly attributed to uncontrolled domain, time, or situational factors. Without integrative work, studies accounting for these factors may further complicate research by introducing potentially numerous third variables and render a coherent understanding of the attitude-behavior relationship even more difficult to achieve. In this paper, a developmental perspective is taken and the attitude-behavior relationship in delinquency is examined using three modes of investigation: multivariate patterns of attitude-behavior associations, their mutual predictability, and their developmental trajectories. Three grade cohorts of public school boys (n=1517 of the first, seventh, and tenth grades, initially) were followed over a period of 4 years, with an average age span of 7–16 years. Correspondence analyses suggested that adolescent boys with a tolerant attitude toward theft or violence were more deviant than those who had actual behavior of theft or violence. Stronger attitude effect on subsequent behavior, relative to behavior effect on subsequent attitudes, was found among boys aged 10–12 years. While mean scores of tolerant attitudes to serious theft and violence increased linearly with their behavior counterparts between 6 and 17 years of age, ages 11 and 14 were two turning points at which most delinquent attitudes and behaviors escalated at a higher speed. In general, delinquent attitudes and behaviors were related to each other in various patterns, and age was a defining factor that provided much of the explanation for the inconsistencies in research findings.     

西方两大法系行政法的差异及其成因与发展趋势

行政法观念最初是在西方文化背景下产生的 ,反映了西方社会发展的特点。由于行政法产生的历史与思想基础不同 ,西方国家行政法发展又分为以法德为代表的大陆法系与以英美为代表的英美法系行政法发展模式。两大法系各国行政法在发展过程中具有不同的历史背景 ,决定了他们在具体原则和内容上的差异 ,但其发展趋势又有共同性     

当代西方社会学理论的十大发展趋势

本文总结当代西方社会学理论的十大发展趋势:(1)经典依然处于核心地位;(2)宏观与微观的理论整合;(3)社会理论与历史的融合;(4)全球化成为重要理论议题;(5)社会理论中心的转移;(6)后现代思潮的冲击;(7)社会建构主义的勃兴;(8)女性主义的挑战;(9)社会理论的空间转向;(10)将身体带入社会学理论。文章的最后部分讨论了西方社会学理论发展脉络对于中国社会学的理论创新的意义。     

中日贸易的新发展、新变化及问题

新世纪以来,中日贸易规模进一步扩大,贸易商品结构也发生了新的变化。由于中国经济崛起而日本经济低迷,中国在日本对外贸易中的地位迅速提高,而日本在中国对外贸易中的地位却明显下降。中日贸易发展对中日两国经济都产生了积极的作用和影响,也存在一些不可忽视的问题,必须认真对待,尽快解决。     

我国暴力犯罪活动的趋势和对策

暴力犯罪在我国建国50年中,经历了由多到少和由少到多的过程,其变化主要受社会控制力强弱、青少年人口数量和比重、打击力度的大小等因素的影响.随着市场经济的逐步建立,这种犯罪的比重将有所下降,但图财性质的暴力犯罪在整个暴力犯罪中的比重会继续增加.对暴力犯罪的控制,尤其要贯彻打击与预防并重的方针.     

Gender,populist attitudes,and voting: explaining the gender gap in voting for populist radical right and populist radical left parties

Empirical studies have demonstrated that compared to almost all other parties, populist radical right (PRR) parties draw more votes from men than from women. However, the two dominant explanations that are generally advanced to explain this disparity – gender differences regarding socio-economic position and lower perceptions regarding the threat of immigrants – cannot fully explain the difference. The article contends that it might actually be gender differences regarding the conceptualisation of society and politics – populist attitudes – that explain the gender gap. Thus, the gap may be due, in part, to differences in socialisation. The article analyses EES 2014 data on voting for the populist radical right and the populist radical left in nine European countries. Across countries, the gender gap in voting for the PRR is indeed partly explained by populist attitudes. For populist radical left parties, the results are less clear, suggesting that populism has different meanings to voters on the left and on the right.     

How people organise cultural attitudes: cultural belief systems and the populist radical right

Political scientists generally agree that all individuals structure their cultural attitudes in the same unidimensional fashion. However, various populist radical right parties remarkably combine moral progressiveness with conservatism regarding immigration-related issues. This suggests that the structuring of cultural attitudes among the electorate may also be more complex than typically assumed. Applying Correlational Class Analysis to representative survey data, the study uncovers three cultural belief systems. For individuals adhering to an integrated one, all cultural attitudes are interdependent, as typically assumed. However, two alternative belief systems are also uncovered: intermediate and partitioned. In the latter, positions on one cultural attitude (e.g. ethnocentrism) are barely related to positions on others (e.g. rejecting Islam or opposing homosexuality). The existence of multiple cultural belief systems challenges the widely held assumption that all people organise their cultural attitudes similarly. Both political party agendas and individuals’ education level and religion appear key to understanding variation in belief systems.