《汉书》整理平议

中华书局点校本《汉书》是人们学习和开展《汉书》研究工作最常用的权威文本,但这一古籍整理典范之作仍有不少疏漏。从古籍整理规范角度出发,对点校本在底本文字校勘方面予以考察,便发现其中尚存在着径增、径删、径改、径移、文字处理失范等问题。     

鼎立统一：“一分为三”的表现形式之一

“一分为三”命题包括鼎立统一。在中国哲学史上,鼎立统一即三足鼎立是有地位的。后来在谈“三”色变的氛围之下,鼎立统一就没有存在的余地了。现在应该充分认识它的哲理性,肯定它的地位、作用和意义,并在实践中加以运用。     

Stammwähler und die opportunistische Wahl parteipolitischer Programme

This article explains political radicalism by the number of voters who are biased towards a party. With little voters biased in favor of a party, this party has to rely more heavily on its programmatic distance to other parties. Because large parties – i.e.: parties with a high number of biased voters – gain votes when they move to the center of the political spectrum, parties with a lower number of voters that are biased in their favor are forced to the edges of the policy space. We draw on a computational model of political competition between four parties in a two‐dimensional policy space to investigate this relationship. We use panel corrected OLS estimates to analyze the data generated by the computer simulation. Our results substantiate the hypothesis of a negative relationship between the number of biased voters and the inclination of a party to adopt a more extreme policy stance.     

纳西族文化变迁中的非均衡性

文化变迁是一场纷繁复杂、生动万千的过程 ,不是某种文化在同一时间全部发生变迁。从纵向看 ,文化变迁的速度越来越快 ;从横向上看 ,文化变迁始于文化中某个成分的变化。一个民族与周围民族的交往 ,往往会打破其文化运作的均衡状态 ,又终因文化的整体性特征而形成新的平衡。由于民族间及国家间交往的频繁 ,文化变迁中的自变量越来越难以预测     

Cultural Penetration and Punctuated Policy Change: Explaining the Evolution of U.S. Energy Policy

Punctuated equilibrium theory (PET) suggests that the policy process is characterized by long periods of incremental change and short periods of punctuated change. The impetus for the latter is usually a focusing event that breaks open policy monopolies, allowing for major changes in legislative decision making. While a burgeoning body of literature, a shortcoming in the PET literature is that it has yet to explain why focusing events and subsequent breakdowns in policy monopolies sometimes fail to result in punctuated policy. We integrate theories on cultural change with punctuated equilibrium to explain why focusing events do not always result in the dramatic policy changes that we might expect. Specifically, we use the context of national energy policy and the lexical database, Google Ngram Viewer, to trace punctuating energy‐related events and the occurrence or lack thereof subsequent policy change from 1952 to 2000.     

The Impact of the Unemployment Rate on Unemployment Benefits in Barbados: An Impulse Response Approach

The purpose of this article is to determine how the rate of unemployment will impact on unemployment benefits in Barbados using annual data from 1982 to 2009 with the use of an impulse response function. The results show that when a shock is applied to the rate of unemployment, which causes it to rise, unemployment benefits will contract marginally and this reaction will not stabilize until the 14th period when a new equilibrium will be attained. Since this new equilibrium will lie below the original equilibrium, rising unemployment will impact negatively on unemployment benefits although this decline will only be marginal.     

中国智慧和中国方案 ：就业优先的阶段性内涵与生发机制

作为中国特色的经济社会战略名词,就业优先惟有明晰其阶段性和针对性才能充分彰显中国智 慧和中国方案的魅力。结合低中高收入水平及其各自所处阶段的发展均衡陷阱,以反贫困、反对不平等、实现 充分就业与体面就业等阶段性主要任务为媒介,可探究就业优先的阶段性内涵与生发机制。总体上就业优先的 内涵变迁可拾级而上形成三个阶段,即努力实现市场化就业优先的低等水平就业,追求就业数量优先的中等水 平就业,致力于就业质量优先的高等水平就业。就业优先由低到高的三个阶段性内涵依次对应收入水平的低等、 中低等、中高等不同阶段,但并非绝对。进入中国特色社会主义新时代,更要坚持就业优先战略,并把握好就 业质量优先这一新的阶段性内涵,进一步推动相关领域的深化改革。     

Policy dynamics and the evolution of state charter school laws

Baumgartner and Jones (1993) showed how radically new policies emerge on government agendas as a consequence of exogenous shocks to policy subsystems displacing privileged interests. But how do these policies evolve post-punctuation? In this paper, we present three different models of policy change. Policies may revert to the old status quo if displaced interests re-assert themselves, or they may be “locked-in” by new interests now reaping the benefits. Alternatively, they may incrementally change as lawmakers “learn” how to better meet target population needs, particularly by witnessing how other jurisdictions address similar problems. We test these models with data on change in state charter schools laws over time. We find that whether old status quos are overthrow, and the fate of charter policies when they are enacted, is influenced more by competing political interests, especially interest groups, than elite and public perceptions of broad systemic crises. Yet, we also find that changing demands on the state and learning from the successes and failures of neighboring states also play significant roles.     

民主党派利益代表机制研究

利益是政党活动的核心,政党政治是实现各种复杂的社会利益最权威的活动.在我国,民主党派参政虽然是民主的政治活动,但也必然围绕着利益展开活动,其核心就在于如何在实现该政党所代表的阶层的政治、经济利益的同时保证不同社会阶层之间利益的公正协调.因此,充分发挥参政党的利益代表功能,趋利弊害,对于实现社会和谐与均衡发展均有重要意义.本文从上述视角出发,着重探讨了民主党派利益代表机制的基本内涵以及其顺利实现对社会和谐的意义.     

逮捕的博弈分析

逮捕是一种并非由司法机关单方意志决定的策略行为。是否适用逮捕取决于司法机关与犯罪嫌疑人双方的博弈。目前逮捕率过高在于逮捕是博弈中犯罪嫌疑人占优条件下的次优选择。监视居住和人保方式的取保候审并非理性的选择。财保取保候审中最小保证金数额是司法机关发现查获嫌疑人妨害诉讼的概率和犯罪嫌疑人妨害诉讼最大可能收益的一个函数。降低逮捕率是可能的。