对现行机动车驾驶人交通违法行为累积记分制度的思考

本文对机动车驾驶人交通违法累积记分制在我国交通安全管理实践中的沿革、发展和现状及其对交通安全管理的积极作用进行了阐述。结合四川道路交通安全管理实际,对累积记分制在实施中暴露出的、值得关注和研究的主要问题进行了剖析。对进一步改进累积记分制、充分发挥其对于道路交通安全管理的作用,提出了对策建议。     

Inter‐Rater Reliability of Total Body Score—A Scale for Quantification of Corpse Decomposition

The degree of body decomposition can be quantified using Total Body Score (TBS), a scale frequently used in taphonomic or entomological studies of decomposition. Here, the inter‐rater reliability of the scale is analyzed. The study was made on 120 laymen, which were trained in the use of the scale. Participants scored decomposition of pig carcasses from photographs. It was found that the scale, when used by different people, gives homogeneous results irrespective of the user qualifications (the Krippendorff's alfa for all participants was 0.818). The study also indicated that carcasses in advanced decomposition receive significantly less accurate scores. Moreover, it was found that scores for cadavers in mosaic decomposition (i.e., representing signs of at least two stages of decomposition) are less accurate. These results demonstrate that the scale may be regarded as inter‐rater reliable. Some propositions for refinement of the scale were also discussed.     

The suitability of visual taphonomic methods for digital photographs: An experimental approach with pig carcasses in a tropical climate

In the context of increased scrutiny of the methods in forensic sciences, it is essential to ensure that the approaches used in forensic taphonomy to measure decomposition and estimate the postmortem interval are underpinned by robust evidence-based data. Digital photographs are an important source of documentation in forensic taphonomic investigations but the suitability of the current approaches for photographs, rather than real-time remains, is poorly studied which can undermine accurate forensic conclusions. The present study aimed to investigate the suitability of 2D colour digital photographs for evaluating decomposition of exposed human analogues (Sus scrofa domesticus) in a tropical savanna environment (Hawaii), using two published scoring methods; Megyesi et al., 2005 and Keough et al., 2017. It was found that there were significant differences between the real-time and photograph decomposition scores when the Megyesi et al. method was used. However, the Keough et al. method applied to photographs reflected real-time decomposition more closely and thus appears more suitable to evaluate pig decomposition from 2D photographs. The findings indicate that the type of scoring method used has a significant impact on the ability to accurately evaluate the decomposition of exposed pig carcasses from photographs. It was further identified that photographic taphonomic analysis can reach high inter-observer reproducibility. These novel findings are of significant importance for the forensic sciences as they highlight the potential for high quality photograph coverage to provide useful complementary information for the forensic taphonomic investigation. New recommendations to develop robust transparent approaches adapted to photographs in forensic taphonomy are suggested based on these findings.     

Score based procedures for the calculation of forensic likelihood ratios – Scores should take account of both similarity and typicality

Score based procedures for the calculation of forensic likelihood ratios are popular across different branches of forensic science. They have two stages, first a function or model which takes measured features from known-source and questioned-source pairs as input and calculates scores as output, then a subsequent model which converts scores to likelihood ratios. We demonstrate that scores which are purely measures of similarity are not appropriate for calculating forensically interpretable likelihood ratios. In addition to taking account of similarity between the questioned-origin specimen and the known-origin sample, scores must also take account of the typicality of the questioned-origin specimen with respect to a sample of the relevant population specified by the defence hypothesis. We use Monte Carlo simulations to compare the output of three score based procedures with reference likelihood ratio values calculated directly from the fully specified Monte Carlo distributions. The three types of scores compared are: 1. non-anchored similarity-only scores; 2. non-anchored similarity and typicality scores; and 3. known-source anchored same-origin scores and questioned-source anchored different-origin scores. We also make a comparison with the performance of a procedure using a dichotomous “match”/“non-match” similarity score, and compare the performance of 1 and 2 on real data.     

灭火战斗评定指标体系的构建

目前,公安消防部队进行灭火战斗的评定结果,可划分为成功、基本成功、失败三种类型。评定方法主要采用因果分析法、事件树分析法和等级累计积分法。此评定结果实用性不强、方法有效性不足,另一方面灭火战斗评定具有不确定、模糊、动态变化、复杂等特性。因此,为科学客观的分析和评价灭火战斗行动,本文采用定性和定量相结合的、系统化、层次化的分析方法来构建灭火战斗评定的指标体系,科学合理的划分各级指标体系。     

倾向度匹配、救助依赖与瞄准机制——基于社会救助制度实施效应的经验分析

为更好地了解社会救助制度实施状况,笔者第一次尝试性地利用实际调查微观住户数据资料,结合倾向度匹配方法分析了目前中国社会救助体系对贫困家庭的瞄准机制、实施效果等问题。分析结果显示,中国社会救助方式在经济和社会体制转型过程中产生了显著性的改变。并且从"救助依赖"产生的视角来看,中国社会救助制度在设定的过程中能在一定程度上规避制度本身产生的"救助依赖"问题。针对这个问题我们分析了受助群体再就业家庭对社会救助制度待遇高低的反应,通过其再就业行为的变化,提出了规避受助家庭成员在再就业市场上产生的负面影响,从而更好地促进社会救助制度实施正面效应。     

了本唐乐古谱与中国宫廷燕乐--刘崇德先生日本唐乐研究述评

日本唐乐古谱是中国唐代音乐的异域留存，学界对其研究和解译非常关注，限于种种条件，多年来少有突破。词曲学家刘崇德先生此次将日本唐乐古谱十种整理出版，在对其进行基本文献研究和整理的基础上，对日本唐乐与我国唐代宫廷燕乐的直接关系、性质、乐律、曲型和结构等重要问题都做了深入研究。为我们深刻的揭开了日本唐乐古谱的神秘面纱。并借他山之石，为我们唐代宫廷燕乐、词乐、词体研究了、开辟了宽广道路。     

浅谈自主学习与英语学习成绩的关系

自80年代以来,自主学习一直是教育界共同关注的一个重要问题。目前,国内外有很多研究者关注自主性学习和学习成绩之间的关系。学生自主学习水平的高低影响其学业成绩。因此,学习者应该通过有效的自主性学习,培养独立学习能力,为今后的学习和工作打下基础。     

Seasonal Variation of Carcass Decomposition and Gravesoil Chemistry in a Cold (Dfa) Climate

It is well known that temperature significantly affects corpse decomposition. Yet relatively few taphonomy studies investigate the effects of seasonality on decomposition. Here, we propose the use of the Köppen‐Geiger climate classification system and describe the decomposition of swine (Sus scrofa domesticus) carcasses during the summer and winter near Lincoln, Nebraska, USA. Decomposition was scored, and gravesoil chemistry (total carbon, total nitrogen, ninhydrin‐reactive nitrogen, ammonium, nitrate, and soil pH) was assessed. Gross carcass decomposition in summer was three to seven times greater than in winter. Initial significant changes in gravesoil chemistry occurred following approximately 320 accumulated degree days, regardless of season. Furthermore, significant (p < 0.05) correlations were observed between ammonium and pH (positive correlation) and between nitrate and pH (negative correlation). We hope that future decomposition studies employ the Köppen‐Geiger climate classification system to understand the seasonality of corpse decomposition, to validate taphonomic methods, and to facilitate cross‐climate comparisons of carcass decomposition.