制度匮乏下亚欧合作的选择:议题、形式和方向

亚欧会议的制度匮乏源于成员中缺少强势主导国及其创设的国际机制。当前亚欧合作面临三大主要矛盾,即共同威胁上升、力量对比改变和新成员的加入。亚欧对跨区域合作的需求增加,同时合作的难度也在增大。亚欧合作需要在更新议题、调整合作的方式和方向等方面不懈探索以保持活力。为在制度短缺的前提下实现有效合作,亚欧仍适合遵循以开放和自愿为基础的弱机制模式,并需要依靠亚欧双方主导性力量加强多边协调,以务实的态度优先在低政治领域开展合作。     

Testing a promising homicide reduction strategy: re-assessing the impact of the Indianapolis “pulling levers” intervention

Since the publication of analyses suggesting the significant impact on youth homicide of the Boston “pulling levers” intervention, a series of studies of similar strategies have indicated promise in reducing homicide and gun assaults. One of these studies was an assessment of a pulling levers strategy in Indianapolis, where trend analyses indicated a significant reduction in homicide following the intervention, while six other similar Midwestern cities did not experience a significant decline in homicide. We re-assess the results of the Indianapolis study by disaggregating the offenses into gang- and non-gang homicides. Given that the pulling levers program focused on influencing gangs and networks of chronic offenders, the impact of the intervention should be more apparent for gang homicides than for non-gang homicides. Alternatively, should the impact be similar for non-gang homicides, then it is more likely that the downward trend would be caused by unmeasured external forces. Coefficient-difference tests relying on estimates obtained from autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time–series models indicate that gang homicides declined significantly more than did non-gang homicides following the Indianapolis intervention. These findings suggest ‘something happened’ to gang homicides that did not happen to non-gang homicides, which adds further support that the pulling levers initiative was the driving force behind the overall reduction in homicide in Indianapolis.

A descriptive study of juvenile family violence: Data from intervention order applications in a Childrens Court

There is increasing recognition that family violence may be perpetrated by juveniles against their parents and siblings, however empirical research regarding the nature and causes of such violence is relatively limited. This study examines juvenile family violence in the context of an Intervention Order (IO) being sought against a relative aged 18 years or less. All cases over a 3-year period involving an IO application in a major metropolitan Children's Court in Australia were analysed (n = 438). The majority of applicants/victims were parents (78%) and to a lesser extent siblings (11%) and other relatives (9%). Most parents who sought applications were mothers (63%) and one-parent households were over-represented (66%). The majority of defendants/perpetrators were male (69%), though juvenile females constituted a significant minority (31%). Intervention orders were sought to prohibit property damage (61%), physical assaults (59%) and/or threats (53%). According to the victim reports, these behaviours emerged in the context of prolonged behavioural problems (49%), a desire to intimidate the victim (12%) or retaliation (8%). While 44% of IO applications were granted, the majority were not (56%) due to the victim discontinuing the application prior to a formal hearing. Of the orders that were granted, a third (32%) were subsequently reported as having been breached. Juvenile family violence is a serious social problem that requires more systematic research to identify the correlates of this behaviour and effective interventions to prevent or reduce its occurrence.     

高校统战工作的SWOT分析及对策研究

本文运用马克思主义关于矛盾的普遍性和特殊性以及事物的共性和个性原理,采用SWOT分析法,从高校统战的优势与劣势以及机遇与挑战四个方面进行分析,找出高校统战中相对稳定的、持久的、较长时间不会改变的优势、劣势,并结合最新形势下找出当前高校统战工作中遇到的相对不稳定的、暂时的会随着时间的变化而变化的机遇与挑战。经如此全面分析的前提下找出高校统战工作的对策。     

基子SWOT分析的提高边检服务水平工作韵策路选择

随着我国经济社会的发展，出入境旅客的日趋增长，出入境边防检查机关面临着新的机遇和挑战。如何提高边检服务水平，更好地满足出入境旅客的需要是摆在边检机关面前的重要课题。我们通过采用SWOT分析法，对边检机关所处的内部环境和外部挑战进行了详细分析，并在此基础上提出提高边检服务水平的SO—wT战略。     

武装掩护走私争点探微

由于刑法规定的不明确,围绕武装掩护走私,学界展开了激烈的讨论。本文在厘清武装掩护走私的含义及认定的基础上,试图阐明这样几个问题:武装掩护走私不成立独立的罪名,而是各具体走私罪的从重处罚情节;武装掩护走私所掩护的是走私行为,而不要求是走私犯罪;必须严格区分武装掩护走私和以暴力、威胁方法抗拒缉私行为。     

安南联合国改革报告评析

安南秘书长2005年3月21日提出的题为《大自由:实现人人共享的发展、安全和人权》的改革报告,试图为联合国应对新世纪国际和平与安全面临的威胁“建立一个全球合作和具体行动的新时代的蓝图”。报告提出了不少新的概念和建议,但主要反映美国为首的西方大国的观点和主张。从各方反应看,各国对报告的分歧意见和提出的问题很多,主要集中在7个方面:什么是当前世界面临的主要威胁、把所谓“集体保护的责任”作为“新的(国际)规范”问题、使用武力的合法性标准问题、防止大规模杀伤性武器扩散问题、恐怖主义定义问题、设立小规模的人权理事会问题和安理会改革问题。