The Impact of the Unemployment Rate on Unemployment Benefits in Barbados: An Impulse Response Approach

The purpose of this article is to determine how the rate of unemployment will impact on unemployment benefits in Barbados using annual data from 1982 to 2009 with the use of an impulse response function. The results show that when a shock is applied to the rate of unemployment, which causes it to rise, unemployment benefits will contract marginally and this reaction will not stabilize until the 14th period when a new equilibrium will be attained. Since this new equilibrium will lie below the original equilibrium, rising unemployment will impact negatively on unemployment benefits although this decline will only be marginal.     

中国农村的自杀问题(1980-2009)——兼与景军先生等商榷

通过对7省34村的质性访谈而获得的1980-2009年间604例农民自杀死亡案例的数据分析,本文认为当前农村自杀率仍呈显著上升态势。青年人自杀率的显著下降与老年人自杀率的急速上升并行不悖地运行于当下农村,青年女性自杀率的显著下降拉低了青年人整体自杀率并使之向下运行,然而,老年人自杀率的急速上升则拉升了农村的整体自杀率并使之向上运行。分析指出,决定这种复杂形貌的因素并非农村女性的迁移所导致,而是由于代际关系变动与离婚加速兴起所造成。其背后更为深刻的机制则表明,当前农村自杀率的复杂变化是现代性持续地侵蚀农村的产物。     

地区犯罪规模影响因素的混沌分析

区域社会和经济存在与发展的因素对犯罪规模有着不同程度的影响。文章基于这一事实将警务效率、人均GDP、受教育状况、人口密度和基尼系数作为地区犯罪规模的评价因素，采用复回归方法建立了地区犯罪率模型，通过模糊动态聚类分析得到了影响犯罪规模各因素的混沌特征，从这种混沌优化的学习过程中确定了各个影响因素的权重，将它作为地区犯罪规模影响因素的程度。结果表明，警务效率对犯罪率的影响最大，其次是人口密度和受教育程度的影响．     

影响就业的几个因素及解决方案

促进劳动力充分就业是构建社会主义和谐社会的重要内容和根本要求，也是我们研究经济社会又好又快发展的重大课题。在市场经济条件下，影响劳动力充分就业的因素有许多。诸如城乡劳动力市场的分割、城乡经济和劳动力“二元结构”、就业歧视、劳动力流动存在制度性障碍等。通过分析就业形势，总结影响就业的诸多因素，提出几点意见和建议。     

我国刑事诉讼中不起诉率问题研究——兼与德国的比较

比较中、德两国检察机关不起诉率数据并研究相关资料,发现我国刑事诉讼的不起诉率呈现出一种不太正常的低迷状态。其原因主要在审查起诉的理念设计、案件划分理念以及不起诉制约程序和政策走向等方面。中国刑事诉讼的低不起诉率存在问题,应当转变观念,使每一个不起诉决定的做出都是建立在对案件事实分析的基础上的,使不起诉制度可以真正建筑于人权保障的基石之上。但是,也应当看到,中国不起诉率如此之低并不意味着我们就必须刻意将其推到一定高度。     

关于重建住房公积金利率体系的思考

在住房公积金制度体系中,利率体系一直处于相对缺位的状态,这种情况已成为制约住房公积金制度健康发展的瓶颈。近年来住房公积金存贷款利率发生了多次调整,给住房公积金制度带来的影响,运用数据分析和规范分析的方法,阐述了目前住房公积金利率体系存在的问题,并就如何建立一个高度优惠性、相对独立性和适度关联性的住房公积金利率体系提出了相关建议。     

目的要素:美国指控人民币汇率操纵的难越之巅

汇率操纵是近年来以美国为代表的西方国家对人民币汇率提出的一项主要指控.然而,依据《IMF协定》和《新决议》,由于汇率操纵目的要素中的汇率严重偏差和汇率低估缺乏法定的衡量基准,人民币汇率是否构成汇率操纵目的中的汇率低估无法认定.同时,《新决议》对汇率操纵目的的认定实行“疑罪从无”原则,而人民币汇率安排符合《IMF协定》规...     

积极开展创业教育 提高大学生就业率

为提高大学生尤其是高职毕业生就业率,学校应把扩大就业放在更加突出的重要位置,开展"创业教育",树立创业观念,开设创业课程,进行创业指导,建立创业基地.     

Economic voting in Britain, 1857–1914

Despite limited government control over the pre-1914 economy, opposition politicians were enthusiastic in blaming bad economic news on the incumbent. In a study of 458 by-elections between 1857 and 1914, we find that voters typically gave new governments a 'honeymoon' but thereafter held them responsible for high unemployment and high prices. Each 1% rise in the price level, on average, brought about a 0.21% swing against the government of the day, while each one-point rise in the percentage unemployed had double this effect. However, when we split the electorate into borough and county constituencies, economic voting appears to be confined to the former.     

The electoral impact of the financial crisis: Evidence using district-level data

Do economic downturns increase voter support for left or right parties? In our empirical analysis, we combine fine-grained registry-data on the labor market impact of the crisis and how it varied across 5000 electoral districts, with district-level data on vote-shares for all major parties in Swedish parliamentary elections before and after the crisis. Because the impact was so diverse across districts, we can estimate the electoral impact of unemployment more efficiently than usual. Moreover, because the crisis was an external and unexpected shock to the Swedish economy, we argue that the selection bias that is usually inherent in estimating the electoral impact of unemployment is mitigated. We find that the electoral impact of crisis-induced unemployment was large, benefiting right parties.