什么样的“闹大”成功了?--基于40个案例的定性比较分析

社会中层出不穷的"闹大"是公共治理状况的一面"镜子",也是转型时期政策议程建构的重要路径。本文采用清晰集定性比较分析(csQCA),对2003-2019年发生的40个"闹大"案例进行比较研究。研究结果表明,上级(层)政府支持是"闹大"成功的必要条件。推动"闹大"成功的充分条件组合共有八种,可具体归纳为制度框架使用模式、集体施压模式、专家引导模式和暴力强推模式等四种解释模型。公民"闹大"成功是多个条件组合的结果,在核心条件发挥基础作用的前提下,适当的辅助条件更容易触发政策议程,推动问题解决。文章为公民"闹大"的行动逻辑提供了新的因果解释机制,也为理解形形色色的"闹大"现象提供了新的理论工具。     

A mixed DNA profile controversy revisited

Semaan et al. (J Forensic Res, 2020, 11, 453) discuss a mock case “where eight different individuals [P₁ through P₈] could not be excluded in a mixed DNA analysis. Even though … expert DNA mixture analysis software was used.” Two of these are the true donors. The LRs reported are incorrect due to the incorrect entry of propositions into LRmix Studio. This forced the software to account for most of the alleles as drop-in, resulting in LRs 60–70 orders of magnitude larger than expected. P₁, P₂, P₄, P₅, and P₈ can be manually excluded using peak heights. This has relevance when using LRmix which does not use peak heights. We extend the work using the same two reference genotypes who were the true contributors as Semaan et al. (J Forensic Res, 2020, 11, 453). We simulate three two-donor mixtures with peak heights using these two genotypes and analyze using STRmix?. For the simulated 1:1 mixture, one of the non-donors’ LRs supported him being a contributor when no conditioning was used. When considered in combination with any other potential donors (i.e., with conditioning), this non-donor was correctly eliminated. For the 3:1 mixture, all results correctly supported that the non-donors were not contributors. The low-template 4:1 mixture LRs with no conditioning showed support for all eight profiles as donors. However, the results from pair-wise conditioning showed that only the two ground truth donors had LRs supporting that they were contributors to the mixture. We recommend the use of peak heights and conditioning profiles, as this allows better sensitivity and specificity even when the persons share many alleles.     

Observer determination of the make,model, and year of questioned vehicles

Often, criminal acts involving a vehicle are caught on digital video surveillance systems. While potentially useful for an investigation, the recording conditions are typically less than optimal for the extraction of key information for the identification of the perpetrator, such as a license plate. Providing the make, model and year of a questioned vehicle is a common request for examiners, to narrow the field of potential suspect vehicles. This study seeks to compare the performance of a nonpeer-reviewed make, model, and year determination between two separate groups, specifically, trained forensic image examiners and nontrained individuals. Results show that even with varied image capture conditions and quality, the trained forensic image examiners more correctly and completely identified the test group of questioned vehicles make, model, and year.     

CSR and social conflict in the Brazilian extractive sector

ABSTRACT

Corporate social responsibility (CSR) is an important means to address conflicts, support local development and build trust between businesses and civil society. Yet CSR often fails to live up to its ambitions and can even exacerbate conflicts between companies and communities. In this article we consider how changing CSR strategies over the past four decades between Brazilian company Vale to Norwegian company Hydro have fomented or mitigated company–community conflicts in Northern Brazil. We find that paternalistic and philanthropic approaches of Vale over time led to deep resentment and mistrust due to underdevelopment and environmental damages. Moreover, while Hydro’s more modern CSR strategies sought to deepen community engagement and build legitimacy, the company has struggled in addressing the legacies inherited from Vale and past and current civil society grievances. The case suggests that even forward-thinking CSR approaches are vulnerable to failure where they prioritise business risk over community engagement, neglect to account for past legacies in areas of operation, and fail to create a shared vision of future development. It suggests that EI companies should both understand and engage with their social and environmental impacts in the past, present, and future and create shared economic benefits in the short and long term in order to address social conflicts.     

Adding to the Controversy? Civil Society’s Evaluation of the National Conference Dialogue in Yemen

ABSTRACT

This article assembles a picture of Yemen’s 2013–14 National Dialogue Conference (NDC) by collecting perspectives from local civil society organizations (CSOs), which are contrasted to the views of international commentators. Despite all efforts by internal parties as well as the international community, the dialogue failed to avert war, which broke out shortly after. Through interviews with 50 CSOs, we reconstructed the reasons for failure, as well as paying attention to the observed strengths of the dialogue. Half of the consulted organizations were directly involved in the NDC, either as an invited participant or in a brokerage role. The other half concerns outside observers. We identify aspects on which the opinion of the CSOs converge, but also highlight striking divergences depending on insider/outsider status. In contrast to the view espoused in the international literature, the CSOs overall feel that, in spite of all its procedural and substantive flaws, the NDC was a significant junction in the long road towards peace and stability and laid important groundwork for future dialogues.     

Empty schools and Silencios: pedagogical openings for memory-making in Colombia

This paper draws from Silencios – a photography series by the Colombian artist Juan Manuel Echavarría. Silencios comprises more than 120 portrayals of abandoned schools due to armed conflict in Los Montes de María, Colombia. Sharing Echeverría’s belief that ‘these chalkboards have lessons to tell us about war’, the author of this paper advocates for the pedagogical use of Silencios to promote and support memory works in Colombia. The present analysis acknowledges that hegemonic memories and narratives have a negative impact on conflict-affected societies due to their authoritarian and oppressive character.

Therefore, the pedagogical use of Silencios seeks to ignite multiple narratives and counterhegemonic memories that might emerge as the public interacts with the photography. The visuals, in this sense, become an educational opportunity to stimulate reflection and resistance against the monopoly of the past in a country that is currently emerging from conflict. In this paper, the abandoned schools are considered as memory sites, and as renewed learning spaces to stimulate reflections and debates upon the armed conflict. Silencios can contribute to peacebuilding efforts by bringing up the possibility to reconsider essentialist conceptions of peace, memory, and pedagogy, that might hinder potential venues for enduring peace in Colombia.     

Applying Stone in a Western Landscape: Ranchers,Conservationists, and Causal Stories in the “American Serengeti”

As the emergence of nongovernmental conservation efforts generates conflict among various stakeholders, the causal story that each party articulates regarding conservation and the causes of land degradation reflects their unique interests. This study uses existing literature to evaluate causal stories surrounding a contemporary conservation effort: Montana's American Prairie Reserve. Through qualitative review of web‐based documents and newspaper articles, it generates a preliminary account of key stakeholders' causal stories. The case study suggests that parties who might be disadvantaged by ascribing responsibility for environmental harms in an adversarial fashion may instead elect to articulate causal stories that are more neutral than existing approaches might forecast. The study concludes by suggesting that further development of causal story literature may enable it to better address contemporary conservation efforts.     

UNESCO,world heritage and the gridlock over Yemen

Abstract

Since March 2015, the Saudi-led military intervention in Yemen has had devastating consequences for the country, its people and its rich cultural heritage. This article traces the responses of the world’s foremost multilateral body concerned with heritage promotion and protection, the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO). Drawing on extensive interviews, archival research and long-term ethnographic research on UNESCO itself and, more specifically, its responses to the war in Yemen, it documents UNESCO’s profound failures in protecting Yemen’s heritage and in confronting the Saudi-led coalition. To do so, the article utilises the framework of ‘gridlock’ to analyse how and why multilateral bodies such as UNESCO become hamstrung in confronting powerful member states in conflict. The article concludes by arguing that UNESCO’s failures in Yemen hold powerful lessons about the role of multilateral institutions in addressing conflict.     

论人工智能赋值国家治理:方法、视角与维度

赋值是智能政治学的重要研究课题,赋值研究是智能政治学的重要分析方法。人工智能赋值国家治理,从分析视角来看,表现为人工智能科学、人工智能技术、人工智能形态和人工智能体对国家治理的多重赋值和多源性影响作用。从分析维度来讲,表现为人工智能从赋益、赋义、赋能、赋权、赋则和赋责等多维度影响作用或赋值国家治理,甚至推动国家治理从"人工智能+国家治理"的形式赋值质变为"人机智能治理"的实质赋值。选择"赋值"术语工具、赋值理论和赋值分析方法,以分析研究人工智能影响作用国家治理,将有助于探明人工智能赋值国家治理的理论逻辑、历史逻辑和实践逻辑,从而推动智能政治学以及国家智能治理问题的理论研究和学术创新。     

DNA Recovery From Tape-Lifting Kits: Methodology and Practice

In the case of suspicious deaths, the technique of 1:1 taping is often used in Belgium. It consists of affixing a large number of adhesive tapes to the body of the victim. It is conventionally aimed at obtaining microtraces (e.g., fibers, hair) and is usually not used for DNA analysis. However, in some cases, DNA analysis of certain areas of interest identified on the 1:1 taping material can offer a last resort solution. The four-step method that is described in this article involves the selection of areas of interest on the body (Step 1), the selection of the corresponding tapes (Step 2), the decontamination of the tapes (Step 3), the selection of areas of interest on the tapes, for DNA sampling (Step 4). The method is illustrated by its successful application in four murder cases. In each case, DNA profiles of good quality could be identified, including profiles of persons different from the victim.