Metric forensic anthropology decisions: Reliability and biasability of sectioning-point-based sex estimates

Subjective decisions make human cognitive processes more susceptible to bias and error. Specifically, research indicates that additional context biases forensic anthropologists’ morphological analyses. To address whether metric analyses are also subject to bias, we conducted a pilot study in which 52 experienced osteologists measured a difficult-to-classify human femur, with or without additional contextual information. Using a metric sectioning-point sex-estimation method, participants provided a sex estimate for individual skeletal element(s) and, when given multiple elements, the combined skeletal assemblage. Control group participants (n = 24) measured only the femur. In addition to the femur, bias group participants (n = 28) either measured a female humerus and viewed a female-biasing photograph (n = 14) or measured a male humerus and viewed a male-biasing photograph (n = 14). We explored whether the experts in the different groups would differ in: (1) femoral measurements; (2) femoral sex-estimation conclusions; and (3) final sex-estimation conclusions for the skeletal assemblage. Although the femoral measurements and femoral sex estimates were comparable across groups, the overall sex estimates in the female-biased group were impacted by contextual information—differing from both the control and male-biased groups (p < 0.001). Our results demonstrate that cognitive bias can occur even in metric sex-estimation conclusions. Specifically, this occurred when the metric data and single-element sex estimates were synthesized into an overall estimate. Thus, our results suggest that metric methods are most vulnerable to bias when data are synthesized into an overall conclusion, highlighting the need for bias countermeasures and comprehensive statistical frameworks for synthesizing metric data to mitigate the effects of cognitive bias.     

税收结构改变的长期影响与转型特征

提高直接税比重是优化我国税制结构和调节收入分配的重要实现途径，但可能同时对经济增长和社会福利产生影响。当政府降低消费税，如果维持长期总税收不变，那么不管是提高工资收入税税率还是资本收入税税率，经济中的资本积累和生产规模都会有一定程度的缩减；从长期看，提高直接税比重会降低消费者福利，但是转型过程中可能会有部分代际受益。相比于提高资本收入税，提高工资收入税税率在长期给经济增长和消费者福利带来的负效应更为明显。     

Applying Moral Foundations Theory to the Explanation of Capital Jurors’ Sentencing Decisions

Abstract

This study applies moral foundations theory to capital juror decision making. We hypothesized that binding moral foundations would predict death qualification and punitive sentencing decisions, whereas individualizing moral foundations would be associated with juror disqualification and a leniency effect. Additionally, we considered whether moral foundations can explain differences in death penalty application between conservatives and liberals. Respondents from two independent samples participated in a mock-juror task in which the circumstances of a hypothetical defendant’s case varied. Results revealed moral foundations were strong predictors of death qualification. The binding and individualizing foundations were related to sentencing decisions in the expected ways. Supporting our contention that moral foundations operate differently across different types of cases, heterogeneity in the effects of moral foundations was observed. Finally, we found support for the hypothesis that the relationship between sentencing decisions and conservatism would be attenuated by moral foundations.     

What do forensic analysts consider relevant to their decision making?

In response to research demonstrating that irrelevant contextual information can bias forensic science analyses, authorities have increasingly urged laboratories to limit analysts' access to irrelevant and potentially biasing information (Dror and Cole (2010) [3]; National Academy of Sciences (2009) [18]; President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (2016) [22]; UK Forensic Science Regulator (2015) [26]). However, a great challenge in implementing this reform is determining which information is task-relevant and which is task-irrelevant. In the current study, we surveyed 183 forensic analysts to examine what they consider relevant versus irrelevant in their forensic analyses. Results revealed that analysts generally do not regard information regarding the suspect or victim as essential to their analytic tasks. However, there was significant variability among analysts within and between disciplines. Findings suggest that forensic science disciplines need to agree on what they regard as task-relevant before context management procedures can be properly implemented. The lack of consensus about what is relevant information not only leaves room for biasing information, but also reveals foundational gaps in what analysts consider crucial in forensic decision making.     

骨龄自动化评估的研究进展

骨龄是反映人体生长发育的一项重要指标,能够较为客观地反映个体生长发育水平及成熟度。传统的人工骨龄评估通常是将左手腕X线片与参考标准进行比较,从而获得相应的骨龄值,该方法既耗时又存在观察者间的差异。近年来,随着计算机科学的不断发展,促使骨龄评估开始由传统的人工评估向自动化评估转变。虽然骨龄自动化评估的研究已相当多,但大部分仍处于实验阶段。本文综述了近年来国内外学者在骨龄自动化评估方面的相关研究与进展,以期为相关研究人员提供参考与研究思路。     

论国际投资中的国家责任问题

国际投资中的国家责任问题主要涉及国际投资的法律保护问题 ,如对外国投资和投资者的待遇标准、国有化或征收及其补偿问题。另外 ,还涉及特许权协议、拒绝司法、外交保护等问题。就外资待遇而言 ,发展中国家应根据其经济发展的实际情况在双边投资保护条约中慎重承诺。笔者通过对国有化问题的分析 ,认为国家在这个问题上所承担的国家责任不是传统国际法上的国家责任 ,而是一种“合法行为引起的国家责任”。关于特许协议 ,笔者认为它是国内契约。此外 ,在国际投资中 ,还涉及因污染转嫁而产生的国家责任。     

中国外资银行监管与中国入世承诺的履行

WTO规则促进了国际金融一体化的进程 ,加入WTO对我国金融业既是机遇又意味着挑战 ,本文针对WTO规则中有关银行业的规定与我国相关承诺中涉及的外资银行监管问题进行了客观分析 ,并就我国完善对外资银行的监管提出了自己的看法。     

欠发达地区农民增收难的原因及解决对策——以江西省抚州市为例

欠发达地区农民增收受到多种因素限制,增收渠道少、难以持续、土地经营规模小、农业比较效益差及农业基础设施薄弱等是主要原因。完善政策机制、改善农业生产条件、推进产业化经营及加快小城镇建设等措施,不失为解决当前欠发达地区农民增收难的好对策。     

试论技术入股股东的权利、义务与法律责任

技术出资方式迥然不同于货币、实物、土地使用权等出资方式,技术入股股东不仅具有其他股东的权利、义务与法律责任,而且还具有自己的特殊权利、特殊义务与特殊法律责任。从技术入股角度出发,《中华人民共和国公司法》有关股东权利、义务与法律责任的规定需要充实。     

从观念的结合到现实的统一——法治与社会主义的关联

法治与社会主义的关联经历了一个曲折的发展过程。在马克思恩格斯的社会主义理想中,法治与社会主义的观念结合仅体现在未来社会发展的特定的阶段。法治与社会主义的现实统一是随着中国改革开放逐步形成的。