Metric forensic anthropology decisions: Reliability and biasability of sectioning-point-based sex estimates

Subjective decisions make human cognitive processes more susceptible to bias and error. Specifically, research indicates that additional context biases forensic anthropologists’ morphological analyses. To address whether metric analyses are also subject to bias, we conducted a pilot study in which 52 experienced osteologists measured a difficult-to-classify human femur, with or without additional contextual information. Using a metric sectioning-point sex-estimation method, participants provided a sex estimate for individual skeletal element(s) and, when given multiple elements, the combined skeletal assemblage. Control group participants (n = 24) measured only the femur. In addition to the femur, bias group participants (n = 28) either measured a female humerus and viewed a female-biasing photograph (n = 14) or measured a male humerus and viewed a male-biasing photograph (n = 14). We explored whether the experts in the different groups would differ in: (1) femoral measurements; (2) femoral sex-estimation conclusions; and (3) final sex-estimation conclusions for the skeletal assemblage. Although the femoral measurements and femoral sex estimates were comparable across groups, the overall sex estimates in the female-biased group were impacted by contextual information—differing from both the control and male-biased groups (p < 0.001). Our results demonstrate that cognitive bias can occur even in metric sex-estimation conclusions. Specifically, this occurred when the metric data and single-element sex estimates were synthesized into an overall estimate. Thus, our results suggest that metric methods are most vulnerable to bias when data are synthesized into an overall conclusion, highlighting the need for bias countermeasures and comprehensive statistical frameworks for synthesizing metric data to mitigate the effects of cognitive bias.     

Applying Moral Foundations Theory to the Explanation of Capital Jurors’ Sentencing Decisions

Abstract

This study applies moral foundations theory to capital juror decision making. We hypothesized that binding moral foundations would predict death qualification and punitive sentencing decisions, whereas individualizing moral foundations would be associated with juror disqualification and a leniency effect. Additionally, we considered whether moral foundations can explain differences in death penalty application between conservatives and liberals. Respondents from two independent samples participated in a mock-juror task in which the circumstances of a hypothetical defendant’s case varied. Results revealed moral foundations were strong predictors of death qualification. The binding and individualizing foundations were related to sentencing decisions in the expected ways. Supporting our contention that moral foundations operate differently across different types of cases, heterogeneity in the effects of moral foundations was observed. Finally, we found support for the hypothesis that the relationship between sentencing decisions and conservatism would be attenuated by moral foundations.     

What do forensic analysts consider relevant to their decision making?

In response to research demonstrating that irrelevant contextual information can bias forensic science analyses, authorities have increasingly urged laboratories to limit analysts' access to irrelevant and potentially biasing information (Dror and Cole (2010) [3]; National Academy of Sciences (2009) [18]; President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (2016) [22]; UK Forensic Science Regulator (2015) [26]). However, a great challenge in implementing this reform is determining which information is task-relevant and which is task-irrelevant. In the current study, we surveyed 183 forensic analysts to examine what they consider relevant versus irrelevant in their forensic analyses. Results revealed that analysts generally do not regard information regarding the suspect or victim as essential to their analytic tasks. However, there was significant variability among analysts within and between disciplines. Findings suggest that forensic science disciplines need to agree on what they regard as task-relevant before context management procedures can be properly implemented. The lack of consensus about what is relevant information not only leaves room for biasing information, but also reveals foundational gaps in what analysts consider crucial in forensic decision making.     

关于经济全球化背景下中国政府职能转变的思考

加入WTO ,加快了中国经济全球化的进程 ,同时受到更多约束的是中国政府 ,因此政府只有适应经济全球化的挑战 ,进一步转变政府职能。政府职能不再是“守夜人”。针对目前存在的主要问题 ,本文提出在五个方面的政府职能的转变 ,最终创造有效率的市场环境 ,促进中国经济持续稳定地发展。     

委托理财协议中的保底条款效力之追问

保底条款是委托理财协议中最重要的条款,它不仅决定了这种投资方式的存在与否,同时亦是委托理财失败诉争时当事双方相持不下的根本原因。对于该条款的效力认定,目前的法律与司法实践并没有提供能真正能起到指导与评价作用的答案。因此,从合同的私法性、社会法性及保底条款与其它条款的勾连角度来追问保底条款的效力问题是合理与适法判决的关键所在。     

宪政——人类法治文明的最高结晶

文章从依法治国首先要依宪治国 ,实行法治关键要实行宪政立论 ,层层深入地阐析了宪政的涵义 ,宪政与宪法的关系 ,宪政的性质、特征及要义 ,宪政与民主、法治、人权的关系等重要问题。     

The decision to leave an abusive relationship: The testing of an alternative methodological approach

Most studies that consider the factors influencing the decision to leave an abusive relationship rely on retrospective, self-report data. In addition to the biased samples that are frequently obtained in such investigations, the methodological shortcomings of survey research limit its explanatory power, particularly when applied to such sensitive topics as family violence. This report introduces an alternative method for studying the decision to leave an abusive relationship. Forty-five men and 68 women were studied using an experimental computer game of an abuse-like relationship. The tendency to leave this relationship was measured under four differing conditions of severity and frequency of abuse. A logit analysis revealed that the frequency of abuse was more consequential to women's decisions to leave, while severity of abuse was more salient for men. In addition, the hypothesized model, including frequency of abuse, severity of abuse, and locus of control, fits well for women but not for men. The implications of these findings, as well as the validity and future application of experimental games, are discussed.     

农村经济系统多层局势决策方法及应用

文章围绕复杂经济系统多层局势决策问题及其在农村经济系统结构调整中的应用问题展开研究，分析了复杂系统的层次性，给出了复杂系统多层次结构描述，运用多层局势决策模型与方法进行了从县域一地区一全省的三层决策分析，对农村经济系统决策提出了建议。     

The Influence of Advisers and Decision Strategies on Foreign Policy Choices: President Clinton's Decision to Use Force in Kosovo

In the following paper, I analyze the influence of advisers and domestic political factors on President Clinton's decision to use force against Slobodan Milosevic and the Serbs in Kosovo in March 1999. I present an analysis and examination of President Clinton's decision-making process, using press reports, personal speeches, etc. In other words, I attempt to trace the process by which Clinton came to the decision to use force in Yugoslavia. Specifically, using the poliheuristic theory, I argue that President Clinton's decision was influenced by noncompensatory domestic political calculations and the strong influence of his Secretary of State, Madeleine K. Albright. Examining how advisers interact with one another, their status in the advisory group, and the manner in which presidents solicit information from advisers will further our understanding of how, when, and under what conditions national security-level decision makers make decisions.