群体性事件预警指标体系研究

在社会系统稳定因素及社会评价指标体系分析的基础上,构建群体性事件的预警指标体系,并通过建立指标权重模型,运用管理学定性、定量等研究方法,完善群体性事件预警机制。     

互联网应用对网络舆情影响力指标体系构建

近些年来,依托各类互联网应用所构建起的网络信息传播体系的网络舆情影响力越发增强,易于引起社会的强烈反应。基于互联网应用的热点信息传播属性,通过构建互联网应用对网络舆情影响力的评价指标体系,可以来衡量和评价互联网应用对网络舆情的影响程度,从而为政府部门实现高效监测、控制、引导网络舆情提供新的思路和方法。     

China’s Peripheral Security Environment: Analytical Framework, Indicator System and Evaluation *

Since the end of the Cold War, the West and China have had diverging interpretations of “security environment.” China tends to define security from the perspective of development, while the West’s definition concerns external threats to security. In Chinese circumstances, the understanding of security environment has evolved from simply military to a more comprehensive one covering military, politics, economics and public opinions. This article develops a theoretical framework to analyze China’s peripheral security environment in the new era, and constructs an indicator system to evaluate it. The indicator system consists of the political security environment, military security environment, development security environment, public opinion security environment, and China’s periphery strategy, drawing upon the theories of Realism, Liberal Institutionalism and Constructivism. Furthermore, this article analyzes indicators through dimensionless methods based on the databases of the World Bank, the “Foreign Relations” database of the Institute of Modern International Relations at Tsinghua University and the People’s Daily, and compares three peripheral security environment scenarios. The result shows that in a general sense, China’s peripheral security environment has improved over the past decades. However, the situations after the 2008 global financial crisis have diverged, and different theoretical perspectives provide very different images. It seems that China has entered a very different environment, and for stable security environment in the future, China needs to cooperate with neighboring countries.     

SD大鼠肢体挫伤后血清生化指标变化及其法医学意义

目的观察大鼠肢体挫伤后血清生化指标的变化特征，分析其法医学意义。方法实验选用SD大鼠，用自由落体装置分别击打大鼠右侧大腿根部，按垂直打击高度控制力度，设置为对照组、轻度打击组、中度打击组和重度打击组等4组。取实验鼠血清检测肌酸激酶（CK）、肌酸激酶同功酶（CK-Mb）、乳酸脱氢酶（LDH）、肌酐（Cr）、尿素氮（BUN）、α-羟丁酸脱氧酶（HBDH）及天门冬氨酸转移酶（AST）的变化，使用SPSS12．0软件分析各指标变化趋势。结果7种血清生化指标AST、CK、CK—MB、HBDH、BUN、Cr随打击力度增加而上升，其中轻、中、重打击组作为整体损伤组与对照组比较有显著性差异，AST、CK、CK—Mb在打击组间比较具有显著性差异。打击组肢体周径与未打击组肢体周径比较有明显变化，且与打击力度呈线性相关。结论肢体软组织挫伤造成相关血清生化指标的显著变化，提示了发生早期心功能损害的部分机制，并且其损伤程度与打击力度呈现线性关系。     

The third molar as an age marker in adolescents: new approach to age evaluation

Adolescence is a relatively short period between childhood and adulthood. It is very difficult to determine adulthood based on biological indicators. The third molar may be considered a potential age marker for the period between the ages of 16–21. Our study evaluated a set of 1700 panoramic radiographs of individuals aged between 5 and 21 years. Results confirmed the statistically significant difference in the course of third molars development. The mean deviation for individuals with one third molar agenesis is ?0.98 years, for individuals with two third molars agenesis ?1.89 years, and with three molars agenesis ?3.28 years. Thus, the extent of the deviation is directly proportional to the number of unformed third molars. The calculation of age according to the mean of stages of all third molars could lead to the underestimation of age. No intergender differences were found. Age determination using third molars could be used for forensic purposes.     

中国周边安全环境：分析框架、指标体系与评估

冷战结束以来,中国和西方对“安全环境”的界定不同,中国侧重于以发展界定安全,西方大国则注重以威胁界定安全。中国政府和学术界对“安全环境”的理解,已经从以军事安全为主演变为军事、政治、经济、舆论四位一体,更具复杂性和动态性特征。因此,作者构建了新时期评估周边安全环境的分析框架与指标体系,包括政治安全环境、军事安全环境、发展安全环境、舆论安全环境以及中国自身对周边环境的塑造能力等构件,这些指标囊括了现实主义、自由制度主义和建构主义的学理判断。文章利用世界银行数据库、清华大学当代国际关系研究院的“中外关系数据库”以及《人民日报》数据库对各细分指标进行无量纲化处理,设定并对比了三种场景下的中国周边安全环境指数。对1992-2011年周边安全环境的分析表明,中国周边安全环境处于不断改善中。不过,2008年以后三种场景产生较大分叉,中国有可能已经进入了一个与前十几年完全不同的状况,中国需要与周边国家共同构建长期稳定的周边安全合作环境。     

论幸福与教育目的

教育作为人类的一项伟大事业,其目的与幸福紧密相连。但两者并不等同,幸福不是也不应是教育目的。幸福需要教育,教育目的的实现是实现幸福的重要条件;教育关注幸福,以幸福为指标衡量其目的的实现,但教育并不刻意追求幸福。     

Beyond the Z-score: A novel measure of bank stability for effective policymaking

This article looks beyond Z-score and proposes a novel methodological framework to build an all-encompassing indicator of bank stability for individual banks using the optimisation-based ‘benefit-of-the-doubt (BoD)’ approach. Unlike other available approaches, this approach is totally data-driven and generates endogenous weights to aggregate sub-indicators of bank stability and dimensions. Further, the final outcomes are not limited to a scalar measure of bank stability. The unique optimal weights offer valuable policy-relevant insights and highlight the most precarious areas of stability, which demand the immediate attention of the bank's management and the industry regulators for both micro-and macro-level policymaking. Using the data of Indian public sector banks operating in the year 2018, the study illustrates the proposed framework to obtain a holistic indicator of bank stability, defined on 14 ratio sub-indicators and 5 broad dimensions (soundness, asset quality, profitability, management efficiency, and liquidity) of bank stability.     

A Computational Framework for Age‐at‐Death Estimation from the Skeleton: Surface and Outline Analysis of 3D Laser Scans of the Adult Pubic Symphysis

In forensic anthropology, age‐at‐death estimation typically requires the macroscopic assessment of the skeletal indicator and its association with a phase or score. High subjectivity and error are the recognized disadvantages of this approach, creating a need for alternative tools that enable the objective and mathematically robust assessment of true chronological age. We describe, here, three fully computational, quantitative shape analysis methods and a combinatory approach that make use of three‐dimensional laser scans of the pubic symphysis. We report a novel age‐related shape measure, focusing on the changes observed in the ventral margin curvature, and refine two former methods, whose measures capture the flatness of the symphyseal surface. We show how we can decrease age‐estimation error and improve prior results by combining these outline and surface measures in two multivariate regression models. The presented models produce objective age‐estimates that are comparable to current practices with root‐mean‐square‐errors between 13.7 and 16.5 years.     

衡量消费需求合理化的指标体系研究

消费需求是否合理是研究消费问题的基础。要从消费率、消费增长率、平均消费倾向和边际消费倾向以及货币的实际购买力等方面,综合衡量一个国家或地区消费需求是否合理,而不能用某一个孤立的指标来衡量。判断消费率是否合适,一是与世界其他国家比较,二是与经典模型进行比较,三是要与本国的经验数据进行比较。合理的消费增长率,一要高于经济增长率,二要高于投资和出口增长率,三要考虑上一个时期消费基数或人均消费基数。消费倾向或边际消费倾向既不是越高越好,也不是越低越好。美国存在的边际消费倾向递减规律失灵现象,我国城乡居民中存在的储蓄偏好和惜消费现象,都要视具体情况作具体分析。