A Test of Generalizability of the Social Development Model Across Gender and Income Groups with Longitudinal Data from the Elementary School Developmental Period

The social development model (SDM) is a theory of behavior that has proven useful in explaining the etiology of delinquency, violence, and substance use among adolescents as well as early antisocial behavior among pre-adolescents. A further test of the model is its generalizability across population groups. A section of the SDM representing prosocial influences in the etiology of problem behavior was compared for boys and girls and for children from low- and non low-income families using three waves of child, parent and teacher survey data on a sample of 851 elementary school students. Multiple group structural equation modeling was used to assess differences across groups in both measurement of model constructs and hypothesized structural paths between constructs. The results indicate overall similarity in the reliability of measurement models and validity of structural models.     

刑侦画像造型训练方法的研究

刑侦画像是依据目击者的记忆语言描述,利用素描等手法模拟刻画犯罪嫌疑人相貌特征的技术手段。刑侦画像造型训练方法的研究,为刑侦画像技术的教育实践工作探索科学有效的培养训练方法,以适应我国公安刑侦工作的实际需要。     

Living in the Past or Living in the Future? Analyzing Parties’ Platform Change In Between Elections,The Netherlands 1997–2014

Do parties change their platform in anticipation of electoral losses? Or do parties respond to experienced losses at the previous election? These questions relate to two mechanisms to align public opinion with party platforms: (1) rational anticipation, and (2) electoral performance. While extant work empirically tested, and found support for, the latter mechanism, the effect of rational anticipation has not been put to an empirical test yet. We contribute to the literature on party platform change by theorizing and assessing how party performance motivates parties to change their platform in-between elections. We built a new and unique dataset of >20,000 press releases issued by 15 Dutch national political parties that were in parliament between 1997 and 2014. Utilizing automated text analysis (topic modeling) to measure parties’ platform change, we show that electoral defeat motivates party platform change in-between elections. In line with existing findings, we demonstrate that parties are backward-looking.     

Effect of Wind on Horizontal Displacement of Fatal Fall from a Height

The horizontal displacement of the human body resulting from fatal fall from a height is an important variable commonly used to inversely determine the cause or identify other forensic aspects of the fall. When examining the horizontal displacement, the wind effect is generally ignored. This technical note reports analytical modeling of the falling process, utilizing previous measurements of wind force acting on the human body, for determining the functional relationship between the wind speed and the horizontal displacement in the falling process. The result reveals that it does not take extremely rare wind conditions to cause a considerable shift of the human body, highlighting the importance to consider wind as a factor in investigations of fatal falls.     

Intergenerational Transmission of Dating Aggression as a Function of Witnessing Only Same Sex Parents vs. Opposite Sex Parents vs. Both Parents as Perpetrators of Domestic Violence

The present study examined the association between witnessing interparental violence as a child, and the risk for perpetrating and being the victim of dating aggression as an adult, in an undergraduate sample. Specifically, this study tested a modeling hypothesis whereby witnessing a same sex parent vs. an opposite sex parent exclusively in the aggressor role would be more highly associated with risk for perpetrating dating aggression. Similarly, observing a same sex parent vs. an opposite sex parent as exclusively a victim of marital aggression would be associated with risk for being a victim of dating aggression. A same sex modeling effect was found for perpetration of dating aggression. Respondents who witnessed only their same sex parent perpetrate physical marital aggression were at increased risk for perpetrating physical dating aggression, whereas respondents who witnessed only their opposite sex parent perpetrate were not. A same sex modeling effect, however, was not found for being a victim of dating aggression. Rather, risk for victimization by dating aggression was associated only with witnessing bidirectional marital violence. Implications of these results, limitations of the present study, and ideas for future research are discussed.     

ALL OFFENDERS ARE EQUAL,BUT SOME ARE MORE EQUAL THAN OTHERS: VARIATION IN JOURNEYS TO CRIME BETWEEN OFFENDERS*

The results of this study reveal a major methodological problem with an established body of criminological literature—the journey to crime. The dominant finding of such research is that most crimes occur close to an offender's home. Consequently, journeys to crime typically display a distance-decay function that is assumed to exist between and within offenders. However, most journey-to-crime studies use nested data—individual offenders contributing multiple crime trips—yet employ analytic methods that fail to account for this property, leading to inference and aggregation concerns. In the study outlined in this article, we demonstrated the implications of using nested data for analyzing the journey to crime. We showed that once controlling for nesting, only a few (prolific) offenders display a distance decay pattern. Implications of the findings for theory and future research are discussed.     

School Climate as a Predictor of Incivility and Bullying Among Public School Employees: A Multilevel Analysis

We surveyed public school educators on the workplace incivility and workplace bullying they experienced and obtained their ratings of the organizational climate of the school. We used multilevel modeling to determine the effects of individual-level and school-level predictors. Ratings of school climate were significantly related to incivility and bullying. We found inverse relationships— the better the organizational climate, the lower the incivility and bullying. Several demographic variables of educators and two school-level variables were not significant predictors. Leaders who focus on improving organizational climate may find that their efforts benefit both student achievement and relationships among educators.     

Influence of Family,Agency, and Caseworker Dynamics on Caregivers' Satisfaction With Their Child Protective Services Experience

Numerous child protective services (CPS) agencies have adopted differential responses as a system reform hypothesized to facilitate family engagement. This research tests a conceptual framework developed to examine dynamics between caregiver, agency, and caseworker factors that are assumed to impact caregiver engagement. Data from a randomized control study and structural equation modeling methods were used to explore the influence of these factors on caregiver satisfaction with their CPS experience. The results indicate that receipt of alternative response, caregivers' ratings of their caseworker's interaction style, and caregivers' positive emotional response influenced satisfaction with their intervention experience, while negative emotional responses did not.     

TrueAllele® Genotype Identification on DNA Mixtures Containing up to Five Unknown Contributors

Computer methods have been developed for mathematically interpreting mixed and low‐template DNA. The genotype modeling approach computationally separates out the contributors to a mixture, with uncertainty represented through probability. Comparison of inferred genotypes calculates a likelihood ratio (LR), which measures identification information. This study statistically examined the genotype modeling performance of Cybergenetics TrueAllele^® computer system. High‐ and low‐template DNA mixtures of known randomized composition containing 2, 3, 4, and 5 contributors were tested. Sensitivity, specificity, and reproducibility were established through LR quantification in each of these eight groups. Covariance analysis found LR behavior to be relatively invariant to DNA amount or contributor number. Analysis of variance found that consistent solutions were produced, once a sufficient number of contributors were considered. This study demonstrates the reliability of TrueAllele interpretation on complex DNA mixtures of representative casework composition. The results can help predict an information outcome for a DNA mixture analysis.     

群体性暴力事件形成计算分析

当前,随着社会转型的不断深化,我国进入了群体性暴力事件的高发期。为进一步了解此类事件的形成机制,降低群体性暴力事件对社会稳定带来的负面影响,作者在agent建模、社会燃烧理论以及羊群效应等理论的基础上搭建了一个群体性暴力事件的形成模型,仿真了无警力条件下群体性暴力事件自发形成的过程。大量仿真结果表明,在群体性暴力事件发生现场的区域内人员密度、“点燃”事件的类型、所在地区的可目视范围以及当地社会环境中的舆论导向等因素均会对群体性暴力事件的产生及发展带来不同程度的影响。该结果将为相关部门预防与处置群体性暴力事件提供重要的理论依据。