“一带一路”倡议实现路径:欧亚大陆中北部国家视角的分析

欧亚大陆北部和中部的国家(包括欧亚地区最大的经济体俄罗斯和哈萨克斯坦),都认识到“一带一路”倡议的潜在价值。几年来,这些国家逐渐接受“一带一路”倡议各方面内容,期待增加欧亚地区交通基础设施投资并扩大运输量。欧亚地区交通运输量增加不仅能带来丰厚的利润,还能改善欧亚地区内部的互联互通。本文通过估算跨欧亚大陆过境运输量,分析欧亚地区北部和中部国家对“一带一路”倡议及自身利益的认知,以及相关国家对目前和未来的担忧,进而提出既对“一带一路”倡议更有价值又能促进欧亚地区北部和中部国家国际经济和制度能力提高的建议。

The “Belt and Road” Initiative:Looking from the Northern and Central Eurasia Perspective

Countries in Northern and Central Eurasia,including its largest economies,Russia and Kazakhstan,appreciated the potential positive implications of the “Belt and Road” Initiative.Over the last years,they increasingly embraced various aspects of the BRI,most importantly additional investment and rising volumes of trans-Eurasian transit.The latter,apart from being a lucrative business on its own,should eventually lead to better internal connectivity between inner-Eurasian regions.In this paper,we start with the providing estimates on the volumes of trans-Eurasian transit as a starting point.Then,we provide an analysis of Northern and Central Eurasian states’ interests and perceptions on the BRI.We complement this analysis by looking into the real and perceived worries of the involved countries.We conclude by looking into the international economic and institutional capacity which is needed to make the BRI even more valuable for Northern and Central Eurasia.