The relation between rate of growth and level of development

The paper tests the hypothesis that countries pass through three successive phases of development: an initial phase of stationary or slow growth; a phase when the growth rate is increasing (accelerating growth), and finally, a phase of decreasing (decelerating) growth. Since the regressions turn out to be significant at the 0.1 per cent level, it may be taken that the hypothesis is confirmed. An explanation is offered and deviant cases are discussed. One of the consequences of the established regularity is that the gap is widening between the least developed and other countries, but the countries at the intermediate level of development are catching up. Thus the usual twofold classification of countries will have to be replaced by a threefold one: less developed, developing and developed countries.