危机幕后的东亚地区秩序分析

本文认为,东亚当前出现"大战不犯,小乱不断"状况的根源在于新旧嬗变中的地区秩序远未就域内各国的政治安排形成制度化设计,在于东亚地区秩序的"有气无力"。历史上,东亚地区秩序曾经历了天朝礼治秩序、条约秩序和冷战下"自主"秩序三种形态。依据历史脉络的梳理,本文认为有美国、中国、日本等七个要素影响着东亚地区秩序。为明确这些要素的特征及相互作用,本文提出了反映国家和国家关系总体形态的"锥体"模型。美国是影响东亚地区秩序的决定性变量,利用"锥体"模型,本文认为,美国现实主义的热情与贪婪,地缘战略的坚持与冷静,相互依赖的推动与困惑等特征共同勾画着东亚战略。中国的复兴是影响东亚地区秩序的突出变量,其显著特征在于整体性的成长。日本"正常化"是影响东亚地区秩序的另一主要变量,其特征在于日本自身的"二重性"。朝鲜半岛、台湾、东南亚由于其关键性和不稳定性而成为东亚地区秩序的缝合口。此外,俄罗斯要素也不可或缺。在美国要素与中国、日本等要素的复杂互动中,中美关系是东亚地区秩序的主轴,作为其中一方的中国,如何把握自身不断增长的力量至关重要。

An Analysis of the the East Asia Regional Order beneath the Crisis

This article argues that the current context of "no major wars,but constant small scale chaos" in East Asia is a result of the failure of political institutions to form as the regional order evolves.Historically,East Asia shifted from being governed by the Celestial Empirical Order to an order based on treaties,to an order of "autonomy" during the Cold War.Based on a review of the historical evolution of the regional order,this article argues that a total of seven factors,including factors related to the U.S.,China and Japan now influence the regional order in East Asia.This article proposes an "upside down pyramid" model to reflect overall relations between states in the region.American influence on the East Asia regional order is preeminent.China’s return is a prominent factor impacting the regional order,and it manifests itself in the overall growth of the region.The "normalization" of Japan is another major factor impacting the East Asian order,and it shows itself through Japan’s inherent "duality".Because of their importance and instability,the Korean Peninsula,Taiwan,and Southeast Asia have become key fissures in the East Asia regional order.Of the dynamics between American,Chinese and Japanese influences,U.S.-China relations are the core axis of the East Asian regional order.For its part,how China uses its continuously growing power is particularly important.