苏联改革的两面性:从改革走向崩溃

在毫无征兆的情况下,苏联突然解体了。苏共领导人戈尔巴乔夫的改革把苏联带入了一场典型的革命性进程之中。苏联的政治经济体制改革的起步非常谨慎,随后逐步扩大到政治层面,并升级为激进的政治诉求和改革,进而持续升温成为一场革命性的大动荡。旨在恢复社会秩序、实现社会稳定的苏联版"热月政变"由此出现。实际上,前苏联的这场改革并不像当下一些政客抑或是戈尔巴乔夫本人所讲述的那样,是一场有计划的、有组织性的,旨在实现民主化、西方式的民主社会类型和市场经济的改革。苏联的解体也并非因为灾难性的经济危机,事实上,苏联的经济早已是一潭死水。苏联之所以会走向解体,主要在于其一系列旨在解决严重的社会经济问题的改革准备既不充分,信息也不全面。历史上不乏各种经意和不经意的结果,这场改革将苏联整个社会推入了政治经济不断沉沦的漩涡,引起权贵阶层尤其是苏联加盟共和国中执政者的不安。这反过来又催生了一股压力,要求迅速纠正这些意料之外的结果。从本质上说,苏联解体是这场自上而下改革的结果,这场改革的开始是由于部分苏联精英利用了苏联上层社会对激进改革以及加盟共和国的民族主义的诉求,然而却以整个社会体系的改变而告终。

Double face Perestroika:From Reforms to Collapse

The collapse of the Soviet Union happened suddenly and unexpectedly without alarming warnings beforehand.Party leader Mikhail Gorbachev’s perestroika followed typical evolution of revolutionary development.Perestroika was started with cautious reforms which escalated political processes to radicalization of the political demands and reforms and continued through revolutionary upheaval to Thermidorian counter reaction designed to restoration of order and societal stability.My claim is that Perestroika was neither planned nor controlled process aimed at to democratization,western social democratic type of society and market economy as several contemporary politicians and Gorbachev himself have claimed retrospectively.Nor the fall of the Soviet Union was a result of destructive economic crisis which it couldn’t manage any more.Instead of all of these explanations it was a series of poorly prepared and informed reforms aiming at to correct certain acute societal and economic problems.As often in history its result was both intended and many times unintended results.This drove the society to worsening spiral of economic and political development causing growing unrest among the nomenklatura and in particular in Soviet Republics.That in turn produced again a new stress for immediate and often inconsistently realized corrections of unintended results.Essentially the dissolution of the Soviet Union was a result of top down reforms which ended up the change of the whole social system carried out by the part of the Soviet elite using the impetus of radicalization of upper classes of the society and nationalistic tones of the Soviet republics.