中韩贸易20年:回顾与展望

中韩建交20年来,两国贸易经历了1992～2001年的快速启动阶段和2002～2012年的高速发展阶段,前一个阶段体现了两个长期隔绝的经济高速增长的邻国在建交之后基于双方直接市场需求而产生的贸易创造效应,后一阶段体现了中国入世后逐步发展为"世界加工厂"基于外部市场需求所产生的贸易创造和贸易转移效应。人们对中韩长期贸易逆差的传统认识存在一定误区,东亚服务外部市场的生产型增长模式才是逆差产生的根源,看待逆差应摒弃重商主义贸易观,更为关注国民福利和公平贸易。中韩FTA将是推动中韩贸易发展的新动力,它的建设虽面临策略选择、农产品贸易和非经济因素的影响,但定会成功。

Sino-ROK Trade in the Past 20 Years:Review and Outlook

Since the establishment of diplomatic ties 20 years ago,trade between China and ROK has witnessed two phases: a rapid start-up phase during 1992-2001 and later a rapid development phase during 2002-2012.There are some traditional misunderstandings about chronic trade imbalance between China and ROK.In fact,this imbalance results from the East Asia’s long-term over-dependence on external final demand.Therefore,priorities need to be given to national welfare and leveling playing field.Although Sino-ROK Free Trade Agreement is challenged by strategic choice,agricultural trade and non-economic factors,it is still believed to be concluded and become a new driving force to fuel Sino-ROK trade development.