南亚地区形势的特点及其走向

在过去一年中,南亚地区各国政府虽然维持了政治上的基本稳定,但经历的挑战巨大;地区整体经济形势增长受挫;总体安全形势十分严峻。未来南亚局势将更趋复杂,主要表现为:印度的战略地位将继续走强;巴基斯坦的长期稳定问题值得担忧;美国撤军将使阿富汗面临安全真空。由于南亚具有特殊的地缘政治地位,大国在地区的角逐和争夺始终不会停止,地区局势的演变对中国的影响尤为重要,中国在对印关系、对巴关系和对阿富汗问题应有切实可行的应对思考。

Retrospectof the International Situation in 2013

The world today is in a transitional period of history, which is characterized by such facts that the world political and economic order gradually formed since the end of the Second World War and dominated by a few western developed nations can hardly continue for the changes of balance of power, the global situation based on American hegemony and American exclusive domination has been confronted with growing challenges, and the world is developing towards a multi-polar one. Against such a global background, the international situation in 2013 remained a complex and drastically changing one, as the intrinsic political, economic, social and humanistic contradictions got aggravated. The major factors that influenced the development of the global situation are：