核威慑效应的生成及印巴核威慑的稳定性

核威慑理论伴随着冷战的展开而逐渐丰富,对稳定核威慑需具备的条件,学者们的论述基本趋向于大致相同的结论,然而在适用上却也有不同的解释。自1998年南亚的印、巴进行公开核试验以来,两国核竞赛有增无减,使南亚成为核关注的焦点。印巴两国虽然经历了几次紧张的对峙和冲突,但最终未走向战争,显然核威慑对抑止冲突升级发挥了重要作用,虽然南亚核威慑因技术条件的有限性使其相对脆弱,但在彼此的核学习和相互角逐过程中,两国的威慑会渐趋稳定。

Stability of Indo-Pak Nuclear Deterrence

For years security scholars have different explanations about requirements of applying stable nuclear deterrence.From South Asian nuclear tests in 1998 onwards,nuclear contest has unfolded between India and Pakistan.Grave armed conflict and crises in Kargil and during 2002 standoff did not lead to an all-out war as happened before,which is believed to be a net outcome of the fledgling nuclear deterrence.Allowing for its limited technical conditions,the stability of nuclear deterrence in South Asia remains f...