2007～2008年中国—东盟货物贸易数量分析与预测

一、总量与增速的平稳性根据中国海关总署公布的贸易统计数据，2007年，中国与东盟10国的贸易总额达2025．5亿美元，比双方原来预计到2010年双边贸易额达到2000亿美元的目标提前了3年，距离双边贸易首次突破1000亿美元的2004年也是3年。

Analysis on Goods Trade of China-ASEAN in 2007 and Its Predict in 2008

Measured with the standard laid in years ago, many guidelines of cargo trade between China and ASEAN had been reached ahead of schedule in 2007-the sum of 200 billion dollars and the import of 100 billion dollars were first broken through; Within the past 6 years the growth rate was kept steadily and continuously, and the structure of market and product is gradually optimized. Analysis tested by Eviews shows that the trade among China, America and Japan has the relation of Cointegration and interact each other. It is predictable that the cooperation of China-ASEAN in 2008 will keep its high growth rate.