再论1874年日本出兵侵台意图

1872-1874,从谋划出兵到中日签订《北京专条》,日本政府的对外目标经历了一个不断调整和变化的过程,大致可分为三个阶段:第一阶段留守政府中以外务卿副岛等为代表的“外征派”积极策划一条明确的殖民路线,目标直指略取台湾东部少数民族地区,甚至台湾全岛;第二阶段以大久保为代表的“内治派”主政,方针转向“慎重殖民路线”,为缓解国内士族的不满情绪,选择发动一场小范围的局部“征台”行动,对殖民略地持慎重观望态度;第三阶段是对中交涉时期,策略变化为以实际军事占领为条件讹取利益,具体而言,以索取军费为主,以在琉球或朝鲜方面谋取利益为辅。总之,日本此次侵台的主要动机并非为解决琉球归属问题,其本质是为了缓解国内情势、带有对外殖民意图的军事侵略。

On Japan's Intention of Invading Taiwan in 1874

In 1872-1874,from planning to send troops to Taiwan to signing the“Beijing Special Article”,the Japanese government's foreign objectives experienced a process of constant adjustment and change,which can be roughly divided into three stages.In the first stage,the“foreign invaders”of the government represented by the Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs actively planned a clear colonial route,either through diplomacy or by force,aiming at seizing Taiwan's eastern minority areas,or even the whole island.In the second stage,the “ internal governance”represented by Okubo regime turned to the policy of the“prudent colonization”in order to ease the dissatisfaction of the domestic gentry.They chose to launch a small-scale local“conquest of Taiwan”operation,holding a cautious wait-and-see attitude towards the targeted land.The third stage was the negotiation period with China.Its strategic change was found to seek interests under the condition of actual military occupation,specifically,mainly asking for military expenditure,supplemented by seeking interests in Ryukyu or North Korea.In a word,the main motive for launching this military operation is not to solve the problem of Ryukyu's ownership but to ease the domestic situation,with obvious intention of colonialism.