| 我国社会和谐稳定的时序分析及模拟预警——运用社会指标理论和方法施行前馈控制可能性探索 |
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| 引用本文： | 阎耀军,雷鸣. 我国社会和谐稳定的时序分析及模拟预警——运用社会指标理论和方法施行前馈控制可能性探索[J]. 天津行政学院学报, 2006, 8(2): 71-77 |
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| 作者姓名： | 阎耀军 雷鸣 |
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| 作者单位： | 天津社会科学院,天津,300191 |
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| 基金项目： | 本文是天津市社科规划重点课题(TJ05-SR006)“社会稳定与和谐的前馈控制机制研究”中的核心成果。 |
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| 摘 要： | 根据中共十六届四中全会明确提出要“建立健全社会预警体系”的要求,我们尝试建立了一套对社会和谐稳定进行监测评估的预警指标体系。根据这一指标体系,采集了1985-2002年的有关数据,对社会和谐稳定状况进行了时间序列分析,以此来印证我们曾经经历的社会过程和本指标体系的实证效果,以期能够为各级政府提供一种预警工具,从而增强对社会和谐稳定的前馈控制能力。
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| 关 键 词： | 和谐稳定度 指标体系 评估 社会预警 前馈控制 |
| 文章编号： | 1008-7168(2006)02-0071-07 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-03-21 |
Time Series Analysis on the Harmonious Stability and the Early-warning Simulation of China''''s Society |
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| YAN Yao-jun,LEI Ming. Time Series Analysis on the Harmonious Stability and the Early-warning Simulation of China''''s Society[J]. Journal of Tianjin Administration Institute, 2006, 8(2): 71-77 |
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| Authors: | YAN Yao-jun LEI Ming |
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| Abstract: | According to the requirement of establishing a sound social early-warning system, proposed at the Fourth Plenary Session of the Sixteenth Central Committee, we establish a set of social early-warning index system to monitor and evaluate the harmonious stability of China's society. By this index system, we collect relevant data from 1985 to 2002 and execute time series analysis on society harmonious stability. By using it, we want to verify the social process which we have experienced and test the empirical effect of the index system. As a result, this study may provide a kind of early warning tool for government, and accordingly strengthen our feed-forward control capability in society harmonious stability. |
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| Keywords: | Degree of harmonious stability Index system Evaluation Social early-warning Feed-forward control |
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