2011年中亚战略形势评估

2011年是中亚国家取得主权独立、推进社会转型的第20个年头,也是各国应对各种挑战,努力维稳定、促发展的关键一年。政治上,各国政局均未出现大动荡,但经过独立20年的发展,中亚各国大多接近历史变革临界点,大多数国家均出现自上而下的政治体制改良趋势。经济上,各国逐渐摆脱金融危机影响,实现不同程度增长,但经济危机并未改变中亚经济的增长模式和基本布局,各国发展差距进一步拉大。安全领域,涉恐等恶性案件未显著减少,极端宗教思潮利用各种渠道加紧渗透,中亚安全风险上升值得关注。外交上,中亚各国平衡外交理念更加清晰,手段更加纯熟,但中亚地区的大国博弈有所加剧,俄美两国均提出自己的新中亚战略,日本、韩国等积极介入中亚事务。与此同时,中亚各国与中国关系稳步发展,安全与务实合作得以深化。

Assessment of the 2011 Central Asia strategic situation

2011 was the 20th year of Central Asian states gaining sovereignty and independence and pushing social transition, and also a year of key importance in meeting all challenges, and making efforts to safeguard stability and promote development. Politically, none of them had experienced great turmoil, but after 20 years of development, most of them came close to a critical point of historical change, and showed a trend of better political restructuring. Economically, all of them gradually got rid of the financial crisis and realized a varying degree of growth. But economic crisis did not change the mode of growth and basic layout of their economies and the gap among them was further expanded. In security area, malicious and other terrorism cases saw no remarkable decrease, while extreme religious trends intensified penetration through all channels, and the heightened Central Asian security risks deserved close attention. In 2011 all of the Central Asian states showed clearer balanced diplomatic concepts and were better skilled in their ways and means to achieve them. But the big power game somewhat worsened in the area with both Russia and the US putting forward their respective Central Asia strategies, and Japan and ROK actively interfering in Central Asian affairs. Meanwhile, all Central Asian states steadily developed their cooperation with China, thus deepening their security and pragmatic cooperation with China.